Ukraine

[french frank]

Kupyansk has fallen. Izyum is under attack (may even have been taken by now).

Some unconfirmed reports say it's fallen [Izyum]. Also reported that Russian troops are moving in that direction to shore up the situation (from where?)

I also find it slightly disappointing at the lack of interest shown on the forum in recent weeks (months), but there are many reasons for this and I am probably being unreasonable. My apologies if so.

A lot going on in the world at the moment! I only have to put t in my search box and up comes Trump where I've been trying to follow all the legal deveopments and analyses.

[Historian]

You're doing too good a job, so I, for one, have just read and been suitably informed without responding on Forum, until now.

That's very kind and I know that you have been following events closely.

I am not accusing/blaming anyone for not commenting. This thread has over 50,000 views and it may well be that many people are still very interested. Perhaps my previous post says more about me than them.

[french frank]

That's very kind and I know that you have been following events closely.

I'm with Bryn in thanking you for keeping this thread alive and informed. And so many things being linked, if Biden has a victory to claim after supplying so much by way of weaponry, that will be no bad thing. Trump ached for a 'victory' to demonstrate that America was Great Again.

[Historian]

I'm with Bryn in thanking you for keeping this thread alive and informed. And so many things being linked, if Biden has a victory to claim after supplying so much by way of weaponry, that will be no bad thing. Trump ached for a 'victory' to demonstrate that America was Great Again.

I have been very impressed with the leadership shown by the USA under President Biden: a prelude to victory already. In contrast, Trump was (possibly still is) openly a Putin supporter. Incredibly, for me, there are still many on Trump's side who believe Russia is winning and that the US should withdraw support.

Many thanks.

[Historian]

Some unconfirmed reports say it's fallen [Izyum]. Also reported that Russian troops are moving in that direction to shore up the situation (from where?)

Didn't want to get too far ahead of things. Watch out for Lyman as well.

There were Russian videos of 'reinforcements' yesterday which were shown to be fakes. They probably have some units to spare from further south/east in Luhansk and Donetsk. However, if they are not careful then they risk depleting their forces there too and experiencing a similar collapse in the near future.

[Historian]

I realise that without a map this makes limited sense, but according to latest reports Kupyansk, Izumy and Lyman have all now fallen to Ukrainian forces.

There are reports that Ukraine has reached Vovchansk in the far north east of Ukraine, which would be remarkable. There are even reports that further south the counter-offensive has reached the outskirts of Lysychansk (which fell shortly after the prolonged defence of Severodonetsk.

If, being cautious, these are true then the entire Russian position west of Kharkiv and north of Severodonetsk is in danger of collapse.

Ukraine has retaken far more land in a week than Russia has managed in the last three months (at least).

[Ein Heldenleben]

I realise that without a map this makes limited sense, but according to latest reports Kupyansk, Izumy and Lyman have all now fallen to Ukrainian forces.

There are reports that Ukraine has reached Vovchansk in the far north east of Ukraine, which would be remarkable. There are even reports that further south the counter-offensive has reached the outskirts of Lysychansk (which fell shortly after the prolonged defence of Severodonetsk.

If, being cautious, these are true then the entire Russian position west of Kharkiv and north of Severodonetsk is in danger of collapse.

Ukraine has retaken far more land in a week than Russia has managed in the last three months (at least).

Yes the BBC Map has Kupyansk on it but not Izumy . Am I right in thinking that Izumy is at the centre of the reportedly developing Russian pocket and do have you any estimate of the size of the Army Group? 10,000 max ? It is quite extraordinary that the Ukrainians have captured or infiltrated so far in such a short space of time.

[Bryn]

For those on FB: https://www.facebook.com/10005657813...17700112575958

If you know of another, non-FB source for this clip, please post.

[Historian]

Yes the BBC Map has Kupyansk on it but not Izumy . Am I right in thinking that Izumy is at the centre of the reportedly developing Russian pocket and do have you any estimate of the size of the Army Group? 10,000 max ? It is quite extraordinary that the Ukrainians have captured or infiltrated so far in such a short space of time.

Correct about the position of Izumy. Estimates of the Russian forces which were in and around Izumy are around 10,000. It is south of Kupyansk and depended (almost entirely) on the railway from thence for supplies. However, it seems that someone higher up at last realised that they couldn't pretend any longer and ordered a withdrawal.

Russia brought this on itself by reducing troop numbers (and quality) and expecting that there would be no serious attack in the north while the fighting continues around Kherson. There was no effective reserve and no real attempt to make a stand once the front lines were punctured. As you say, extraordinary.

[HighlandDougie]

I'm with Bryn in thanking you for keeping this thread alive and informed. And so many things being linked, if Biden has a victory to claim after supplying so much by way of weaponry, that will be no bad thing. Trump ached for a 'victory' to demonstrate that America was Great Again.

Thirded in relation to relying on Historian's posts - which I read assiduously - and in agreement with his views on the relative paucity of news. Reading the NY Times's and the Grauniad's respective news streams is certainly more informative than the BBC. Lawrence Freedman, too, as a source of very well informed comment (it's not you, is it, Historian?).

[Frances_iom]

...the NY Times's and the Grauniad's respective news streams is certainly more informative than the BBC. ....

the BBC in the last 2 days has managed both to be parochial, almost worthless in respect of discussion and almost totally void of any other news - a complete disaster I think for the news team.

To return to Ukraine - a cornered rat is dangerous - expect Putin to use some of his remaining long range missiles to do significant damage - so far they seem to have avoided historic sections of cities but I wonder just for how long - damage done on the basis if I can't have it neither can you.

[french frank]

18mins ago on BBC. The version from the Russian side:

""A three-day operation was carried out on the drawdown and organised transfer of the Izyum-Balakliya group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic," the Russian statement said.

"In order to prevent damage to the Russian troops, a powerful fire defeat was inflicted on the enemy."

That sounds very much like confirmation, with the appropriate spin (as I read it), that Izyum and Balakliia as well as Kupiansk have fallen to the Ukrainians.

[Serial_Apologist]

18mins ago on BBC. The version from the Russian side:

""A three-day operation was carried out on the drawdown and organised transfer of the Izyum-Balakliya group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic," the Russian statement said.

"In order to prevent damage to the Russian troops, a powerful fire defeat was inflicted on the enemy."

That sounds very much like confirmation, with the appropriate spin (as I read it), that Izyum and Balakliia as well as Kupiansk have fallen to the Ukrainians.

[Ein Heldenleben]

Correct about the position of Izumy. Estimates of the Russian forces which were in and around Izumy are around 10,000. It is south of Kupyansk and depended (almost entirely) on the railway from thence for supplies. However, it seems that someone higher up at last realised that they couldn't pretend any longer and ordered a withdrawal.

Russia brought this on itself by reducing troop numbers (and quality) and expecting that there would be no serious attack in the north while the fighting continues around Kherson. There was no effective reserve and no real attempt to make a stand once the front lines were punctured. As you say, extraordinary.

Thanks v much . I spent another half an hour between the Times , Telegraph and BBC piecing together the outline of what appears to have happened. Part of the problem is that , unlike WW2 neither side seems to let independent journalists near the front lines. On the other hand there 8s an abundance of social media which , in some ways , may be more reliable. The mix of conventional frontal attack and daring infiltration by the Ukranian Army will be studied for years. All this , it appears, without significant air power. You have to wonder if this was a decoy operation that , somehow , struck gold? Things look stickier further south.

[Historian]

Thirded in relation to relying on Historian's posts - which I read assiduously - and in agreement with his views on the relative paucity of news. Reading the NY Times's and the Grauniad's respective news streams is certainly more informative than the BBC. Lawrence Freedman, too, as a source of very well informed comment (it's not you, is it, Historian?).

Very flattering about Prof. Freedman, but I was only a student of his, a very long time ago! Thank you.