Originally posted by Bryn
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Ukraine
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Originally posted by Dave2002 View PostIt’’s interesting to read John Simpson’s comments a day or two after the 2014 invasion- commenting on how easy it was and [seemingly] very few people were hurt. See BBC News. Since then significant infrastructure linking the region to mainland Russia was built. Did nobody object or care? Maybe everyone was happy and hoped for better times?!?! Everyone trusted “good” actors?!?.
The successful annexation led on to Russia's intervention in Donetsk and Luhansk: this conflict in 2014-2015 saw severe fighting estimated to have cost something like 8,000 lives. Russia was emboldened to do this because of the West's lack of reaction to the annexation of Crimea (among other place e.g. actions against Georgia in 2008).
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Originally posted by Dave2002 View PostI don’t understand why this wasn’t started in 2014.
[Historian will put me right if I have any of this muddled!]It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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Originally posted by Historian View PostThere is a Russian-speaking majority in Crimea and there was significant support for the Russian takeover (although I doubt whether support is so solid now)……. The Kertch straits bridges were necessary as Russia had no land access to Crimea: obviously Russia's supporters in Crimea saw this as a good thing: Ukraine's wishes were, of course, ignored.
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Originally posted by Dave2002 View PostSo significant road and rail connections were established. Under more normal circumstances this might have been seen as a good thing - in a similar way to the denuclearisation of Ukraine.
The exception to most of this seems to be the Roman Empire. Although Pagan Temples were trashed when Christianity became ascendant, one doesn't see whole scale destruction of Roman acqueducts or roads after the Empire fell. Perhaps the Dark Ages weren't so dark after all.
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Originally posted by Serial_Apologist View Post"What did the Romans ever do for us?"
The newer links could be used for diverse purposes, including moving military equipment and personnel into Crimea. For the current Ukrainian government’s point of view that might now not be seen as a great thing.
What might seem like really good ideas in peacetime between “friendly” nations may now be looked at in other lights. It is interesting to note that issues like this have been considered for many centuries, and led to fables such as “the farmer and the snake”, “the scorpion and the turtle”, “the scorpion and the frog” - from different countries such as Persia, and perhaps Greece.
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Originally posted by richardfinegold View PostThe exception to most of this seems to be the Roman Empire. Although Pagan Temples were trashed when Christianity became ascendant, one doesn't see whole scale destruction of Roman acqueducts or roads after the Empire fell. Perhaps the Dark Ages weren't so dark after all.
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Originally posted by Dave2002 View PostI don’t believe the Romans were universally welcomed, nevertheless.
I can't see the Ukrainians wanting to preserve the road and rail bridges linking Crimea with Russia.It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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Well, I was wrong.
I believed that Ukraine would slowly begin to turn the tide of the war by a series of small offensives, focusing on continuing to degrade Russian lines of communication to destyroy their supply lines.
Instead they have unleashed a remarkable sweeping attack south-east of Kharkiv which has liberated an estimated 1600 square km of territory in just a few days, while inflicting heavy losses on the Russian invaders, especially in terms of materiel. More importantly, Ukraine has reached (although not yet taken I think) Kupyansk - a railway and road centre which controls almost all the supply lines between Russia and the Ukrainian city of Izyum. Russia is currently unable to stop this advance or set up effective counter-attacks. No doubt the Ukrainian offensive will have to pause at some point but this is a remarkable achievement by Ukraine.
At the same time Ukrainian forces continue to put heavy pressure on Kherson in the south-east of Ukraine. This is despite heavy Russian reinforcement of their position there. Ukraine has destroyed the bridges which give access to the city and the northern p[art of Kherson province. Russian forces are therefore starved of supplies and at some point will almost certainly have to choose between surrender, running away leaving behind all their heavy equipment, or death.
This is not the end, but it may well be the beginning of the end.
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Originally posted by Historian View PostRussian forces are therefore starved of supplies and at some point will almost certainly have to choose between surrender, running away leaving behind all their heavy equipment, or death.
How likely that the advance on the Kharkhiv area is a sort of 'decoy', in the hope that the Russians will be panicked into trying to prop up their forces there while the Ukrainians prepare for the main onslaught on Kherson which I would have thought a more valuable victory, holding on to their Black Sea territory? Do they have the reserves for that?It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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Originally posted by french frank View PostIf that comes about, I wonder what will happen in Russia?
How likely that the advance on the Kharkhiv area is a sort of 'decoy', in the hope that the Russians will be panicked into trying to prop up their forces there while the Ukrainians prepare for the main onslaught on Kherson which I would have thought a more valuable victory, holding on to their Black Sea territory? Do they have the reserves for that?
I think that would you describe has effectively happened but in reverse. Kherson has acted as a lure to Russia which has sent forces there and also in the area around Melitopol further east to protect the so-called 'land bridge' from Russian-occupied Donetsk to annexed Crimea. Whether this was the intention all along is currently unclear.
You are correct that Kherson is a greater prize, explaining why Putin has allowed forces to be sent into an increasingly indefensible area for political reasons. Without Kherson he cannot hold a 'referendum' and claim that the inhabitants of that oblast have voted overwhelmingly for union with Russia. Kherson is the only province which was effectively conquered during the current invasion: it will be a massive setback when it falls.
When that will be is subject to many factors, because Russia's forces in the south-west of Ukraine are much stronger than in the north-east.
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It is hard to keep up with the speed of the Ukrainian advance in the north.
Kupyansk has fallen. Izyum is under attack (may even have been taken by now). Lyman is under attack. Russian forces are running east leaving vast quantities of tanks, artillery, vehicles, ammunition and supplies, as well as some prisoners. Even the usually well-contollred media in Moscow is starting to panic.
Little or nothing of this has been reported by the BBC whose coverage of Ukraine in recent months has been, IMVVHO, very limited in scope. Some newspapers have been somewhat better at keeping up e.g. Guardian, Telegraph. While I understand that news organisations will lag behind online claims etc. the level of analysis has been very poor. This was the case before the recent 'other news'.
I also find it slightly disappointing at the lack of interest shown on the forum in recent weeks (months), but there are many reasons for this and I am probably being unreasonable. My apologies if so.
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Originally posted by Historian View PostIt is hard to keep up with the speed of the Ukrainian advance in the north.
Kupyansk has fallen. Izyum is under attack (may even have been taken by now). Lyman is under attack. Russian forces are running east leaving vast quantities of tanks, artillery, vehicles, ammunition and supplies, as well as some prisoners. Even the usually well-contollred media in Moscow is starting to panic.
Little or nothing of this has been reported by the BBC whose coverage of Ukraine in recent months has been, IMVVHO, very limited in scope. Some newspapers have been somewhat better at keeping up e.g. Guardian, Telegraph. While I understand that news organisations will lag behind online claims etc. the level of analysis has been very poor. This was the case before the recent 'other news'.
I also find it slightly disappointing at the lack of interest shown on the forum in recent weeks (months), but there are many reasons for this and I am probably being unreasonable. My apologies if so.
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