Ukraine

[Dave2002]

For the time being, several months as an absolute minimum, I would suggest that this conflict will continue.

Sadly yes - and that's probably the best option - overall. I can see it dragging on into next year, but if there's no significant escalation then the stalemate should become more apparent.

[Historian]

Also, did I read that Russia was moving its Black Sea fleet away from Crimea to Novorossiysk on the east coast - in anticipation, it's said, of the arrival of more heavy weapons from the west? If they were hoping to control the Ukrainian Black Sea coast, that looks like a step back.

Yes, on both counts. There are rumours that the USA will be providing special longer-ranged ammunition for the HIMARS rocker-launch system which would render naval vessels docked in Sevastopol vulnerable. The Russians have already lost at least one ship while it was moored, although this was some time ago and was not achieved by the weapons I have just mentioned. Never a good look to lose fleet units in port.

[Historian]

Sadly yes - and that's probably the best option - overall. I can see it dragging on into next year, but if there's no significant escalation then the stalemate should become more apparent.

Sadly, in terms of available (realistic) options I agree.

However, I am not so sure that the stalemate will continue. I don't think Russia can do much more than it's currently attempting. That is a slow advance in the Donbass, destroying everything thoroughly with artillery before attempting to occupy the next settlement. There is little sign of any genuine offensive elsewhere as the Russians have seemingly abandoned trying to advance in other theatres. Instead it may be that Russia is discovering that already over-stretched lines of communication are unable to keep up with the demand for shells now that the Ukrainians are effectively targeting their ammunition supplies. This would lead to a halt on all fronts and leave them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter-attacks and in that case, as mentioned by Lawrence Freedman above, hard decisions will need to be made if they are not to suffer catastrophic losses. We shall see.

[Constantbee]

Would somebody like to have a go at explaining what a Ukrainian cargo plane was doing carrying land mines, of all things, to Bangladesh via an airport in Greece? I had heard from one informed and reliable source in the public domain quite early on in this campaign that prior to this war Ukraine was already developing into something of an international clearing house for the arms trade. This is why I have always been against out governments supplying them with weapons. The source of this conjecture btw was Mike Martin, Defence Analyst based at Kings College.

[Dave2002]

Would somebody like to have a go at explaining what a Ukrainian cargo plane was doing carrying land mines, of all things, to Bangladesh via an airport in Greece? I had heard from one informed and reliable source in the public domain quite early on in this campaign that prior to this war Ukraine was already developing into something of an international clearing house for the arms trade. This is why I have always been against out governments supplying them with weapons. The source of this conjecture btw was Mike Martin, Defence Analyst based at Kings College.

Curious indeed.

I don't know the answer. This is all I could find quickly.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/cargo-plane-operated-by-ukraine-carrier-crashes-in-greece-41845913.html

[french frank]

Would somebody like to have a go at explaining what a Ukrainian cargo plane was doing carrying land mines, of all things, to Bangladesh via an airport in Greece?

According to the BBC report, the airline was Ukrainian as was the crew, but the cargo plane was flying from Serbia with Serbian arms, a fact confirmed by the Serbian Ministry of Defence. The plane was flying over Greece which would be on the route from Serbia to Bangladesh, not from Ukraine where the direct route looks to be further east.

[Dave2002]

According to the BBC report, the airline was Ukrainian as was the crew, but the cargo plane was flying from Serbia with Serbian arms, a fact confirmed by the Serbian Ministry of Defence. The plane was flying over Greece which would be on the route from Serbia to Bangladesh, not from Ukraine where the direct route looks to be further east.

Still seems odd though. Why would Serbia want to supply mines to Bangladesh? Or why would Bangladesh want such weapons? Using planes for such transport also seems odd - unless for some reason "absolutely essential".

[french frank]

Still seems odd though. Why would Serbia want to supply mines to Bangladesh? Or why would Bangladesh want such weapons? Using planes for such transport also seems odd - unless for some reason "absolutely essential".

Don't arms manufacturers sell to whoever wants to buy? The Serbian arms industry is pretty lucrative. The dealer also appears to be a dodgy character.

The main point is it doesn't appear as if this has anything officially to do with the Ukrainian state, as might have been thought by the query in #1069.

[Dave2002]

OK - seems to be coincidentally irrelevant. A curiosity.

[french frank]

So US intelligence says the Russians intend to expand their activity and annex a wider area of Ukraine. Next day Lavrov announces that the supply to Ukraine of western longer-range weaponry necessitates Russia pushing the West-supporting Ukrainians further back in order to protect its own security. He names Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as regions they will now seek (presumably) to annex - but they already had occupied most of those regions, both well ouside Donbas which they had claimed was the region they needed to liberate.

[gradus]

John Sweeney gave a half-hour interview Nihal Arthanayake on R5L this afternoon as part of his promotional work for his new book on Putin - Killer in the Kremlin. By turns terrifying and fascinating the interview was extraordinary and deserves the widest possible circulation. It reminded me that an investigative journalist needs inordinate courage and sheer guts to cover Russian affairs critically at present; how Steve Rosenberg does it Lord alone knows. Mr Sweeney mentioned that he takes a close interest in Life Assurance policies.

[Frances_iom]

John Sweeney gave a half-hour interview Nihal Arthanayake on R5L this afternoon as part of his promotional work for his new book on Putin - Killer in the Kremlin. ...

Bought the book this afternoon (discounted at W H Smiths) -- unputdownable - the assassination methods getting more extreme as Putin's career unfolds - would be thought unbelievable if set as a novel but all the deaths are real and all seem to fit into Putin's hatred of criticism, need to protect his private life etc

[Bella Kemp]

I read today that the Russian lines in the stage musical 'Matilda' have been replaced by Bulgarian ones. This is appallingly sinister.A letter to The Times, a couple of weeks ago, on the excising of Wilfred Owen from the GCSE syllabus, made the point that we are in a 1914 moment - as opposed to the 1937 that some silly general suggested recently. In 1914, everything German was deemed to be inherently evil. Now, we are even demonising the Russian language. This give the West no wriggle room when it comes to negotiations: by all means hate Putin and his loathsome regime, but if we start to suggest that everything Russian is evil, then the future can only be catastrophe.

[muzzer]

I read today that the Russian lines in the stage musical 'Matilda' have been replaced by Bulgarian ones. This is appallingly sinister.A letter to The Times, a couple of weeks ago, on the excising of Wilfred Owen from the GCSE syllabus, made the point that we are in a 1914 moment - as opposed to the 1937 that some silly general suggested recently. In 1914, everything German was deemed to be inherently evil. Now, we are even demonising the Russian language. This give the West no wriggle room when it comes to negotiations: by all means hate Putin and his loathsome regime, but if we start to suggest that everything Russian is evil, then the future can only be catastrophe.

Agree wholeheartedly. I picked up Anthony Beevor’s volume of Vasily Grossman’s diaries this week for £2, newish hardback, at the local charity shop. An invaluable account of what happened, and partly the basis for his mighty novels. In the nearish future will things like this book be banned? Or indeed burned? By general diktat? ‘Who is that man reading about Russia, mummy…….?’ Etc

[Historian]

I had heard from one informed and reliable source in the public domain quite early on in this campaign that prior to this war Ukraine was already developing into something of an international clearing house for the arms trade. This is why I have always been against out governments supplying them with weapons. The source of this conjecture btw was Mike Martin, Defence Analyst based at Kings College.

This is linked to another legitimate concern, which is what may happen to some of the weapons that are being sent to Ukraine after the war is over. As well as the threat of nuclear proliferation, there are lots of conventional weapons which are not properly controlled and end up in the wrong hands.
However, Ukraine is taking steps to deal with this particular problem, with monitoring of weapons deliveries.

Maybe even more importantly, it is transparently not in Ukraine's interests to prejudice relations with donor countries, either now or in the future. This is a powerful reason for Ukraine to ensure that nothing 'goes missing' after the conflict ends. Apart from anything else, Ukraine will be maintaining its military strength for the foreseeable future whatever the outcome of the present war: they will not want anything to leave their control as they may need it again.

Related to this, one of the many strands of current Russian propaganda is an attempt to portray Ukraine as an untrustworthy recipient of aid.

While I respect your views regarding the international arms trade I would also point out that without the weapons, ammunition and supplies given by a wide range of western nations this year, Ukraine would have already lost the war.