Ukraine

[richardfinegold]

I have nothing newsworthy to add. My observation is about Governments that continue to double down on ill conceived Wars when things have gone badly, because to admit defeat is catastrophic politically. In WWI after the stalemate on the Western Front had set in both sides continued to throw millions into meat grinder because only a victory could justify the sacrifices of those already slaughtered, or so the official line ran. In Vietnam most American Policymakers knew they were in an unwinable quagmire but feared the Political Fallout of withdrawal and continued to escalate. Now the Russians after months of humiliation seem to have settled on a grinding strategy that may yet achieve some of their objectives.
In The Great War it essentially took uprisings in the Germanic Countries, largely Socialist/Communist in Nature, and coming a year after the Autocracy in Russia had been tossed, to finally end the slaughter. The Democracies held on, but thy also had the upper hand militarily at the end. In Vietnam it was the Democracy that buckled, aided by the efforts of a free press. I remember growing up hearing the pessimism of the Press, particularly Television, and contrasting with the increasingly mendacious pronouncements of our “leaders”. Our entire generation grew up knowing that our government routinely lied to us to cover their ass.
So what about Russia? There is no Free Press and the unfree states such as them and China are adept at neutralizing the supposedly enlightening effect of the Internet. There is no way to have an Orderly Transition of Power. Therefore they can prosecute this Conflict until a wellspring of opposition gains internal momentum. I just don’t see that happening

[Historian]

Probably, though if the various pressures on the general population cause more mass migration, that won't displease the Russian leadership.

Certainly. Russian military tactics place great emphasis on disrupting the enemy's position in any way possible.

[Dave2002]

Certainly. Russian military tactics place great emphasis on disrupting the enemy's position in any way possible.

I agree about trying to keep this thread going. It's hard to know what exactly is going on now - there are claims on both sides. The Russian side still seems to send missiles over to kill maybe 20 civilians in random parts of Ukraine each day - but is that simply to remind everyone of their presence, and some of their military capability - or are there really other developments? How many incidents are there each day or week, and how large are they? Where are they happening? It's hard to know. Have things reached a sort of stalemate, or is there going to be a big push by one side or the other in the next six months?

One thing this demonstrates so far is that relaxing one's guard in a belief that others will behave in an honest, humane and trustworthy fashion, while admirable in principle, is just not viable.

[Historian]

There is a great deal which is not being said, on both sides. However, although Ukraine has a narrative which it needs to push forward in order to keep up support (both within and from outside) they do give a fairly coherent explanation of what is going on.

Whereas the Russians lie. Endlessly. Through their teeth. Denying flatly what they have so obviously done, accusing Ukraine of deeds which make no possible sense. Using 'provocations' to maintain support within Putin's Russia and in the countries of his allies, with some success.

At present I would say that, relatively speaking, there appears to be something of a lull in terms of large-scale military operations. However, the Ukrainians do seem to be making effective use pf the longer-range rocket systems and improved artillery systems with which they have been provided. This will make it increasingly difficult for Russia to maintain offensives like the one in Luhansk, a task already becoming more difficult as they advance. It is possible that the Ukrainians may soon seek to make larger-scale counter-attacks perhaps towards Kherson in the south, or against Izyum to the north-west of the major fighting. We shall see.

[french frank]

Remains to be seen what Putin's talks ("jointly and separately") with Turkey and Iran bode. Turkey, of course, a Nato member - can't think what input they will have over Russia's reported request for help from Iran.

[Historian]

Yes, the random attacks were what I read about. So there is some method in them …

Maybe, to an extent. Sometimes it is just possible that they are originally aimed at military targets and the ordnance used is not up to the job i.e. not sufficiently accurate.

However, sometimes it is just sheer murder. The recent attack on Vinnytsia was sheer murder, timed as it was for mid-morning on a target with no military significance on a city that has not been attacked for weeks. Victims included a three year old girl and her mother. This is a war-crime.

EDIT: I must apologise for the incorrect information. The girl was four years old, not three and her mother was not killed but seriously injured. She was one of three children killed in the attack: the others were seven and eight.

According to the BBC the Russians claim they targeted a meeting of Ukrainian and foreign officials who were discussing weapons deliveries.

So you can make up your own mind.

[Historian]

Here is Prof.Lawrence Freedman's latest analysis of the war in Ukraine. Worth reading, even if you don't agree with all of it.

[Dave2002]

Here is Prof.Lawrence Freedman's latest analysis of the war in Ukraine. Worth reading, even if you don't agree with all of it.

Well worth reading - thanks. The excuse for the attack on Vinnytsia is - sadly - laughable!

[matthewfox]

Hope this all ends soon
__________

https://www.gfg.eu/2548

[Historian]

Hope this all ends soon

Yes, if that means with Putin leaving everywhere he has overrun at the very least. However, I see little prospect of that as he seems impervious to reality and I don't imagine that most Ukrainians are currently in favourite of a cease-fire. The Freedman article cited in no. 1057 makes the point that there will come a limit to the losses that the Russians can sustain and then they will have to make a decision. For the time being, several months as an absolute minimum, I would suggest that this conflict will continue.

[french frank]

Yes, if that means with Putin leaving everywhere he has overrun at the very least. However, I see little prospect of that as he seems impervious to reality and I don't imagine that most Ukrainians are currently in favourite of a cease-fire.

Meanwhile: '[He] returned to his familiar themes that it was western support for Ukraine that was prolonging the war.' There are, of course, voices in the west who repeat the same argument. The only realistic way, apparently, to end the war and the suffering of the Ukrainian people in short time is to allow Russia to take over the whole of Ukraine. Which is not, in fact - unsurprisingly - what the Ukrainians want any more than the west does.

[Serial_Apologist]

I find the purges which are being carried out within Ukraine's government machine based on charges of pro-Russian support both disturbing and surprising. In the Donbas region, understandable and inevitable, yes; but across the country? What weight should be put on this?

[french frank]

I find the purges which are being carried out within Ukraine's government machine based on charges of pro-Russian support both disturbing and surprising. In the Donbas region, understandable and inevitable, yes; but across the country? What weight should be put on this?

The only thing I can think is that the 'infiltrators' are all individuals, so have presumably been either hand-picked by or in contact with Russian officials, hence they could be based anywhere, not just in Donbas.

[Historian]

I find the purges which are being carried out within Ukraine's government machine based on charges of pro-Russian support both disturbing and surprising. In the Donbas region, understandable and inevitable, yes; but across the country? What weight should be put on this?

I think 'purges' is putting it too strongly. Two important officials have been suspended pending the outcome of investigations. This has taken place several months after the rapid loss of southern Ukraine which caused a lot of suspicion at the time apparently. Many other investigations are being held into a large number of officials within the Ukrainian security service and Prosecutor's office. No-one, as far as we know, has been shot, tortured or imprisoned for a heavy term on trumped-up charges.

I would agree that evidence of widespread infiltration of these important parts of the Ukraine state is certainly disturbing but rather less surprising. Firstly, Russia has spent many years working 'on the inside' in the Ukraine (among other countries) in the same way that other security services (including the UK''s presumably) have done elsewhere. This may have helped foster the illusion that Ukraine was a 'rotten apple' which would quickly fall after a brief shaking. Although the FSB have not covered themselves in glory, they have a lot of experience of suborning officials. Secondly, a minority (no idea how substantial but more evident the further east you go as S-A mentioned) of Ukrainians are on the side of the Russians: some of them will be acting for their chosen side, most, I imagine will be keeping their heads down. Thirdly, some 'loyal' Ukrainians will have made what would have seemed a rational choice when the Russians invaded i.e. to throw in their lot with the side they expected to win. Presumably that decision is not looking so clear-cut at the moment.

Despite this Ukraine is doing well and seems to be making progress in rounding up collaborators within Ukraine. It would not be a good idea for the Zelensky administration to prejudice support by acting in the way Putin and his ft=riends have done for years.

[french frank]

Despite this Ukraine is doing well

Also, did I read that Russia was moving its Black Sea fleet away from Crimea to Novorossiysk on the east coast - in anticipation, it's said, of the arrival of more heavy weapons from the west? If they were hoping to control the Ukrainian Black Sea coast, that looks like a step back.