Ukraine

[french frank]

Not so sure about Medvedev. As you write a "puppet", but he may be more moderate than his erstwhile boss - and maybe sitting on the fence waiting for things to change.

'Puppet' in that he was installed as president to keep the seat warm for Putin's return after his constitutional right to hold office expired. No sign that I can see that he is 'more moderate'.

[Historian]

It's been some time since I linked to Prof. Lawrence Freedman's articles on the conflict, so here is the latest one, subtitled 'The Role of History in the Russo-Ukraine War'.

[french frank]

It's been some time since I linked to Prof. Lawrence Freedman's articles on the conflict, so here is the latest one, subtitled 'The Role of History in the Russo-Ukraine War'.

Thank you for posting that. 'Swat I think too.

[Dave2002]

It's been some time since I linked to Prof. Lawrence Freedman's articles on the conflict, so here is the latest one, subtitled 'The Role of History in the Russo-Ukraine War'.

Very good article. Thanks.

[Jazzrook]

Noam Chomsky on Ukraine & nuclear war:

https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/08/06/2022/chomsky-we-must-insist-nuclear-warfare-unthinkable-policy

JR

[teamsaint]

Noam Chomsky on Ukraine & nuclear war:

https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/08/06/2022/chomsky-we-must-insist-nuclear-warfare-unthinkable-policy

JR

Thanks JR, a very interesting read, with some well described points, especially on the reactions of the population ( and with reference to the liberal left) , the likely endgame assuming that we avoid disastrous expansion of the war, and the very pressing need to see the conflict in historical context. The ratcheting up of war rhetoric in the west should be confronted head on , IMO.

[Jazzrook]

Thanks JR, a very interesting read, with some well described points, especially on the reactions of the population ( and with reference to the liberal left) , the likely endgame assuming that we avoid disastrous expansion of the war, and the very pressing need to see the conflict in historical context. The ratcheting up of war rhetoric in the west should be confronted head on , IMO.

Agreed, teamsaint.
I'm sure Boris Johnson is "ratcheting up the war rhetoric" in a desperate attempt to save his own skin.

JR

[Serial_Apologist]

Agreed, teamsaint.
I'm sure Boris Johnson is "ratcheting up the war rhetoric" in a desperate attempt to save his own skin.

JR

While potentially risking everyone else's in the process.

[Historian]

Professor Lawrence Freedman continues his thoughtful analysis. The first article, 'Paralysis in Moscow' is from 22nd June. The more recent, 'Can Ukraine Win?' is from 3rd July.

[Historian]

It seems there is little or nothing to say about Ukraine at the moment. I would like to keep this thread running as, if nothing else, a small contribution to reminding people that there is a war going on in Europe and that Putin is counting on Ukraine's western allies getting bored or distracted.

Despite the huge efforts put into their offensives against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk the Russians have made only slow progress, at great cost. We do not, of course, know exactly how much strain has been put on Ukraine's defenders but a Russian 'victory' seems as far away as ever. The Ukrainian army is now starting to destroy Russian ammunition dumps with the America-supplied HIMARS long-range rockets. This will make it much more difficult for Russia to sustain the massive, indiscriminate bombardments which are the main method used in their slow movement forward. In the southern theatre, there has been a slow pushing-back of the Russians towards Kherson. There may soon be a larger Ukrainian offensive in the south: this would give a clearer idea of the relative strength of the two sides.

It would be good to hear from others, whether or not they agree with my analysis, such as it is.

[oddoneout]

It seems there is little or nothing to say about Ukraine at the moment. I would like to keep this thread running as, if nothing else, a small contribution to reminding people that there is a war going on in Europe and that Putin is counting on Ukraine's western allies getting bored or distracted.

Despite the huge efforts put into their offensives against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk the Russians have made only slow progress, at great cost. We do not, of course, know exactly how much strain has been put on Ukraine's defenders but a Russian 'victory' seems as far away as ever. The Ukrainian army is now starting to destroy Russian ammunition dumps with the America-supplied HIMARS long-range rockets. This will make it much more difficult for Russia to sustain the massive, indiscriminate bombardments which are the main method used in their slow movement forward. In the southern theatre, there has been a slow pushing-back of the Russians towards Kherson. There may soon be a larger Ukrainian offensive in the south: this would give a clearer idea of the relative strength of the two sides.

It would be good to hear from others, whether or not they agree with my analysis, such as it is.

I don't have the necessary knowledge/analytical skills to comment on your analysis but I agree with the wish to keep the thread alive. Something that concerns me greatly is the situation of the refugees either still hoping to come to the UK or already here. The discrepancy between visa applications and those actually actual issued is still a problem but the number of refugees already in this country who are now homeless is appalling. As of June 3, 655 households (most of which include dependent children) are actually homeless or facing homelessness (gov't figures) - and the figure may well be higher as those who come via family links rather than the official schemes may not be on the official figures and won't show up when their placements break down. I realise that many Afghan refugees are in similar situations but their entry hasn't been subject to the same government "look at how wonderful we are" approach for political ends. In view of the turmoil caused by events at No10 I do worry that the Ukrainian refugee issue will get lost - there is after all not quite the same impetus for grandstanding since the PM who needed it no longer has the same need (or not to the same degree) and the possible replacements are focused on their own ends. In the meantime local authorities, already struggling to meet housing and other demands, are expected to pick up the pieces with inadequate resources.

[french frank]

Despite the huge efforts put into their offensives against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk the Russians have made only slow progress, at great cost. We do not, of course, know exactly how much strain has been put on Ukraine's defenders but a Russian 'victory' seems as far away as ever. The Ukrainian army is now starting to destroy Russian ammunition dumps with the America-supplied HIMARS long-range rockets. This will make it much more difficult for Russia to sustain the massive, indiscriminate bombardments which are the main method used in their slow movement forward. In the southern theatre, there has been a slow pushing-back of the Russians towards Kherson. There may soon be a larger Ukrainian offensive in the south: this would give a clearer idea of the relative strength of the two sides.

It would be good to hear from others, whether or not they agree with my analysis, such as it is.

I hope you're right, and it's possible that the arrival of the new American weaponry will change the game and start pushing the Russians back. In the meantime there are reports of some possibly not very coordinated Russian attacks elsewhere (which proved a mistaken strategy on their part ealier in the war) plus - unconfirmed, I think - somewhat Stalinesque attempts to squeeze/starve the civilian population by burning fields of crops becoming ready for harvesting.

[Historian]

Something that concerns me greatly is the situation of the refugees either still hoping to come to the UK or already here.

Definitely agree with you on this point: shameful performance about refugees from Ukraine, Afghanistan and elsewhere (not to mention the Windrush scandal). Part of a larger pattern of expecting local government to do more and more with effectively less and less.

[Historian]

I hope you're right, and it's possible that the arrival of the new American weaponry will change the game and start pushing the Russians back. In the meantime there are reports of some possibly not very coordinated Russian attacks elsewhere (which proved a mistaken strategy on their part earlier in the war) plus - unconfirmed, I think - somewhat Stalinesque attempts to squeeze/starve the civilian population by burning fields of crops becoming ready for harvesting.

In terms of ground offensives, the Russians have learned some lessons in so far as they how have one major focus, currently heading towards Slovyansk and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. They are also seeking to keep up the pressure around Kharkiv in the north so as to prevent Ukraine achieving more success there. Otherwise they are shelling and mounting small-scale attacks to make Ukrainian counter-attacks more difficult e.g. north of Kherson. They continue to send more or less random missile attacks elsewhere in Ukraine in order to prevent movements of Ukrainian air defences and cause dislocation to supply lines. Attacks on crops would probably be more about damaging Ukraine's agriculture than starving the population (although with considerable effects elsewhere in the world).

[french frank]

IOtherwise they are shelling and mounting small-scale attacks to make Ukrainian counter-attacks more difficult e.g. north of Kherson. They continue to send more or less random missile attacks elsewhere in Ukraine in order to prevent movements of Ukrainian air defences and cause dislocation to supply lines.

Yes, the random attacks were what I read about. So there is some method in them …

Attacks on crops would probably be more about damaging Ukraine's agriculture than starving the population (although with considerable effects elsewhere in the world).

Probably, though if the various pressures on the general population cause more mass migration, that won't displease the Russian leadership.