Ukraine

[french frank]

Apparently Moldova and Georgia applied to join the EU, post the invasion of Ukraine. Another direct result of Putin's attempt to retain Russia's sphere of influence.

[Historian]

Quite a long way upthread reference was made to the recent posts by Prof. Lawrence Freedman: these are well worth reading. Here is a recent one on the potential consequences for NATO and Ukraine. [Don't know if it's necessary but full disclosure I used to be one of his students (a long time ago).

[Dave2002]

There was a TV series dating from 2012 abut some of these issues - but pre the current war - see https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod...st-4-new-start

I have wondered what the "separatists" in various countries actually are or have been. Are they merely stooges put in place for "future expansion", or are there really people who seriously want to break away from the country they are at least nominally living in?

It would seem that Georgia has already experienced this, but to a much lesser extent it now appears than Ukraine.

[french frank]

Quite a long way upthread reference was made to the recent posts by Prof. Lawrence Freedman: these are well worth reading. Here is a recent one on the potential consequences for NATO and Ukraine. [Don't know if it's necessary but full disclosure I used to be one of his students (a long time ago).

I was intrigued by the idea that the German coalition was now split between the hawkish Greens and dovish Social Democrats.

[Historian]

I was intrigued by the idea that the German coalition was now split between the hawkish Greens and dovish Social Democrats.

Yes, it's a bit of a role-reversal for the Greens, or at least my impression of where they stood on this issue. The SDP (and CDU) has had a long history of successful (in some ways) engagement with the Soviet Union and then Russia since at least the 1970s. It is not finding it easy to come to terms with the change in mindset required.

[Frances_iom]

...I have wondered what the "separatists" in various countries actually are or have been.... .

The Soviet Union only collapsed 30 years ago - within the Soviet Union emigration of Russians to the troublesome Baltic states (who only spoke Russian because of forced teaching in schools and had been independent for 20yrs from end of WW1 ) was encouraged so as to reduce the influence of native Balts - Ukraine was some different in that the population of whole regions had been shifted westwards - Germans back into Eastern Germany, the Poles back into Western Ukraine at best leaving expansion for native Russians into Donbas area - Georgia was always somewhat separate but here too there was significant movement of Russian speakers.

[french frank]

I have wondered what the "separatists" in various countries actually are or have been. Are they merely stooges put in place for "future expansion", or are there really people who seriously want to break away from the country they are at least nominally living in?

As far as Donbas is concerned this is what the National Geographic has to say:

"After the communist revolution of 1917, Ukraine was one of the many countries to fight a brutal civil war before being fully absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1922. In the early 1930s, to force peasants to join collective farms, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin orchestrated a famine** that resulted in the starvation and death of millions of Ukrainians. Afterward, Stalin imported large numbers of Russians and other Soviet citizens—many with no ability to speak Ukrainian and with few ties to the region—to help repopulate the east."

It is disputed as to whether there was an intentional 'genocide' of Ukrainians by Stalin, but that does seem to be the origin of the Russian-speaking population in Donbas.

** The Holodomor or Famine of Terror

[Frances_iom]

there has just been on R4 news about 10.30pm a good description of the background re Moldova and the Russian plans for a corridor - the discussion however cut short by the timetable of items

[Dave2002]

It is disputed as to whether there was an intentional 'genocide' of Ukrainians by Stalin, but that does seem to be the origin of the Russian-speaking population in Donbas.

** The Holodomor or Famine of Terror

There was certainly a famine in the 1930s, but it is hard to know whether it was a deliberate attempt at genocide.
Is there any evidence that Stalin disliked Ukrainians more than he disliked people generally? Possibly things just happened as the normal sort of incompetence coupled with indifference.

[french frank]

There was certainly a famine in the 1930s, but it is hard to know whether it was a deliberate attempt at genocide.
Is there any evidence that Stalin disliked Ukrainians more than he disliked people generally? Possibly things just happened as the normal sort of incompetence coupled with indifference.

I don't know. I was answering your question as to the origin of Russian-speaking separatists in different countries. That, at least, seems clear in the case of Ukraine. The famine there, like climate change, could have been 'man-made' even if not intentional. I take it that implicates Soviet policy rather than Ukrainian.

[Dave2002]

I don't know. I was answering your question as to the origin of Russian-speaking separatists in different countries. That, at least, seems clear in the case of Ukraine. The famine there, like climate change, could have been 'man-made' even if not intentional. I take it that implicates Soviet policy rather than Ukrainian.

I think it was after that famine that there were definite attempts to avoid the problems in the future by planting trees. These were - apparently - planted in several rows around roughly rectangular or square areas, so as to minimise problems of soil erosion and crop damage due to weather conditions. I don't know whether there were trees before the famine. If there were, then perhaps they were cut down resulting in an unexpected and unwanted problem.

So I'm not disputing the famine, but it could have been completely accidental - due to lack of awareness of possible problems.

The separatist issues are still not really explained - though I did find an article recently which gave more background.

[french frank]

So I'm not disputing the famine, but it could have been completely accidental - due to lack of awareness of possible problems.

Not being historians specialising in the events, how can we even hold personal opinions? We can only regurgitate the opinions of better qualified people:

''The specific policies implemented in Ukraine were known to be lethal,'' Timothy Snyder, a Yale historian and the author of a book about the period, ''Bloodlands,'' said in an interview. ''Soviet documents make it clear that Ukrainians were to be blamed for the disaster of collectivization and that death was to be deliberately concentrated in Ukraine.''

The Soviet Union exported grain from Ukraine even as its inhabitants starved. Estimates by Western historians put the death toll between 3.3 and 3.9 million Ukrainians, Mr. Snyder said.

The separatist issues are still not really explained - though I did find an article recently which gave more background.

The recent revised estimates of Ukrainian deaths have reduced the figure from up to to 7 million to about half that. If the Russian settlement in Donbas dates from that era what further 'explanation' do you need?

[Dave2002]

The recent revised estimates of Ukrainian deaths have reduced the figure from up to to 7 million to about half that. If the Russian settlement in Donbas dates from that era what further 'explanation' do you need?

I have no idea whether the Russian settlement in Donbas dates from the early 1930s or not. Even if it does, I don't understand your logic here.

Some people in the area might have felt more comfortable, or have been "better off" in the Soviet era, but it is not absolutely clear. Also that is not necessarily a reason to fight against the official government. There seem to be separatists in several areas "of interest" to the Russian government - and have been for some while. Within this millennium we have already seen separatists in Georgia, and now we hear of some hitherto relatively unknown ones in Moldova.

[Frances_iom]

...Some people in the area might have felt more comfortable, or have been "better off" in the Soviet era, but it is not absolutely clear. Also that is not necessarily a reason to fight against the official government. ....

On the demise of the Soviet Union many of the now independent countries tried to undo the imposed Russification thus making many of the Russian immigrants feel unwanted (which in many cases they were!) and thus easy prey for those who opposed the breakup of the Soviet Union especially easy as this immigrant population tended to keep their close ties to Russian society which over the last decade or so has downplayed the horrors of the Stalin era and started to blame the West for the problems of their post Soviet Society. Often these Russian immigrants were associated with Soviet style industries which like their Russian counterparts fell into the hands of oligarchs (this was the description of the Moldovian separatists given by a Gov spokesman on R4) who had a strong financial interest in opposing any change.

[french frank]

and now we hear of some hitherto relatively unknown ones in Moldova.

I'm not sure why it should be in any way relevant that 'the world' had never heard of Transnistria. The ethnic problems (as in the Former Yugoslavia) have existed in the region since even before the break-up of the Soviet Union, some moving towards the Romanian/western side others to the Slav/Russian side. West-facing 'Romanian' Moldova has been internationally recognised as an independent state for 30 or so years.

Wikipedia is actually pretty good at outlining the history of these countries/regions. Eastern Europe and Asia are so ethnically diverse that the development of independent nation states seems inevitably to result in 'troubles' in many places. At root the problem has been the imperialism of powerful states. Civilisation - if we ever reach that stage - will be people living together with no sense of grievance that they have been discriminated against because of who or what they are.