Ukraine

[Serial_Apologist]

It was a Schubert, Impromptu that Lubimv was playing at the time the police arrived and told him to stop. He refused and continued the end of the piece. The Sivestrov items were songs, sung by Yana Ivanilova, a fellow Russian, and accompanied by Lubimov. Further details may emerge, of course.

https://metro.co.uk/video/russia-police-break-moscow-piano-concert-featuring-ukrainian-music-2662813/

https://metro.co.uk/2022/04/14/russi...ip_item_1_news

Following that massive accolade the police bomb announcement of the bomb does not appear to elicited the kind of response one might have expected from an audience in immediate danger.

[french frank]

This is how Channel 4 wrote up the latest headline story:

"In an apparent retaliation for the sinking of the Moskva warship, Russia hit Kyiv with rocket fire today. Among its targets was a factory making anti-ship missiles – the kind Ukraine claims sank the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet yesterday."

How could it be retaliation? The Moskva had a fire and that caused an ammunitions explosion. And the vessel sank in stormy seas when it was being towed away. Nothing to do with the Ukrainians, was it? . I assume the story about the Ukrainians launching rocket attacks on Russian border towns will be given as the "real" justification for Kyiv coming under attack again. That would strike me as not being the most effective way for Ukraine to use dwindling weaponry.

[Frances_iom]

It is now getting serious - R4 is reporting that Russia has 'hinted' that Russia has threatened use of small tactical Nukes - WW3 is almost upon us as the retaliation for the sinking (the Ukrainian claims re sinking seem to have been verified by reported photos from a Ukrainian drone) demonstrates to me that irrationality has started to take place which added to the state media pushing the line that Russia is effectively fighting the west.

[richardfinegold]

Like the first use of poison gas in 1915, it is difficult to contain the effects of even a “tactical nuke”. A change in the wind can cause radiation to be spread to other countries, including NATO countries. This is essentially an attack on NATO countries, inviting retaliation. So far Putin has shown himself to be somewhat casualty averse, as in the gingerly why they handled Chernobyl and the hiring of Syrian Mercenaries

[Jazzrook]

Noam Chomsky on the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

https://theintercept.com/2022/04/14/russia-ukraine-noam-chomsky-jeremy-scahill/

JR

[french frank]

Just been looking at Andrew's database. If I've worked it out correctly Valentyn Silvestrov was played 3-4 times per year over the past 13 years until this year. Since 22 February he's been played every 6-7 days, once on 22nd, 23rd and 25th February and 5 times since. Guess who's been banned from visiting Russia?

[teamsaint]

Sort of a random thought, but Pacifism isn’t a word you hear too often these days.
At least I don’t.

[RichardB]

Sort of a random thought, but Pacifism isn’t a word you hear too often these days.
At least I don’t.

That's because the entire political class seems to have decided that it's anathema. Look at the way Keir Starmer moved to stamp out any tendencies among Labour MPs to support the Stop the War statement.

[Serial_Apologist]

Don't know how many if any saw the Ross Kemp documentary on nationalism and the far right in Ukraine of 2015. This link to the programme informs another perspective on the conflict, the opposing forces already then at work in the east of the country, and many of those who have been driven to take on the invaders in the spirit of patria o muerte.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7vpslq

[french frank]

Don't know how many if any saw the Ross Kemp documentary on nationalism and the far right in Ukraine of 2015. This link to the programme informs another perspective on the conflict, the opposing forces already then at work in the east of the country, and many of those who have been driven to take on the invaders in the spirit of patria o muerte.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7vpslq

Yes, that was a fascinating piece of context and one can see why Putin's claim that Ukraine is governed by Nazis persuaded some. If the film was made in 2015 that was the year after Yanukovych was ousted and Poroshenko took over. Presumably it was his perceived weakness in the face of a Russian threat that led to him being voted out in 2019.

As for the Azov Battalion, a sad example of 'My enemy's enemy is my friend'.

[french frank]

The BBC reports a Russian general as saying that control over southern Ukraine will give them a corridor into Transnistria in Moldova where Russian speakers are also 'being oppressed'.

[Historian]

The BBC reports a Russian general as saying that control over southern Ukraine will give them a corridor into Transnistria in Moldova where Russian speakers are also 'being oppressed'.

I understand your point of view but I think it's another example of Russia stirring things up rather than a realistic statement of policy (assuming that it was 'authorised'). Whatever their long-term plans for 'Transnistria' there is, at present, no chance of Russia securing a land corridor to link up what they hold of southern Ukraine with the anti-Moldovan separatists. So far their northern and north-western fronts have been abysmal failures and they are fighting hard to retain what they have around Kherson.

It may be that, if they make considerable progress in the new offensives in the east of Ukraine, then they might start to aim higher. However, the fighting power of the Russian army has been massively reduced, something which is not apparent from looking at mere numbers. The Russians do not show many signs of having learned from their earlier failures as they are again attacking on a broad front with a substantial number of units which will not have had time to recover from their earlier losses. There is no large reserve for them to use and they have thrown away the chance to rebuild their army to make it more effective.

[french frank]

I understand your point of view but I think it's another example of Russia stirring things up rather than a realistic statement of policy (assuming that it was 'authorised'). Whatever their long-term plans for 'Transnistria' there is, at present, no chance of Russia securing a land corridor to link up what they hold of southern Ukraine with the anti-Moldovan separatists.

As you may realise, I follow these events pretty closely but when they say "The first casuality of war is truth", I never know who to believe when the Western generals assert that the war is going very badly for Russia. Of course, it's what I'd like to believe and, on the face of it, it seems 'obvious' that the war is not going how Putin and his generals planned. In the south they still don't have full control of pro-Russian Donbas, so … They just seem to have a lot left to carry out a great deal of destruction. But you're right: the statement didn't have official backing. I wonder whether Moldovan views on a constitutionally neutral Moldova will change. They were 2 to 1 against joining Nato. They're now being threatened for banning pro-'Special military operation' insignia.

[Frances_iom]

I can see why Estonia severely downgraded the Russian Language usage on gaining independence - any sizable Russian speaking population would appear to provide an excuse for more Russian Imperialism and the emergence of little green men - I wonder just how long the now sizeable Russian contingent will be welcomed in Georgia .

[Historian]

As you may realise, I follow these events pretty closely but when they say "The first casuality of war is truth", I never know who to believe when the Western generals assert that the war is going very badly for Russia. Of course, it's what I'd like to believe and, on the face of it, it seems 'obvious' that the war is not going how Putin and his generals planned. In the south they still don't have full control of pro-Russian Donbas, so … They just seem to have a lot left to carry out a great deal of destruction. But you're right: the statement didn't have official backing. I wonder whether Moldovan views on a constitutionally neutral Moldova will change. They were 2 to 1 against joining Nato. They're now being threatened for banning pro-'Special military operation' insignia.

Good: I'm glad I am not the only one.

Yes, we have to be careful to evaluate the information we are receiving. However, information from Ukraine is much more reliable than that originating from Russia (as I am sure you have worked out for yourself). Information from 'friendly' governments and armed forces will also have a view as will, to a lesser degree, that from think tanks such as the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The very fact that Russia continues to rain destruction on what are obviously civilian targets shows their lack of success in dealing with the unexpected military challenge posed by the Ukrainian forces. Russia's supply of guided weapons is not infinite hence the use of blunter instruments in the hope that Ukraine's will to resist will crumble. This inevitably results in huge destruction and civilian casualties which is mostly what we get to see. There is relatively little coverage (as far as I can see) of the ground war along the line of contact between the two sides (not surprisingly).

I suspect that Moldovan views are undergoing something of a change, in a similar way that Putin seems to have converted Finland and Sweden to being much more likely to seek membership of NATO. This is not a desired outcome for the 'special military operation'.