Ukraine

[oddoneout]

While we argue about whether lives can "be saved" by killing some people, either as a deterrent to others, or to stop their immediate actions, we can ponder about the impact on our snacks.

Crisps might become more expensive!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60941091

I'm not so fussed about lack of crisps as the effects of finding substitutes which I fear for many applications will mean increasing demand for palm oil, with all the serious implications its production has. In theory increased demand for rapeseed oil could benefit UK producers but the timing will be wrong for most growers to take advantage of this year I think, even for a late crop which some growers do. It is a high input crop so constraints on fertiliser and insecticides(and the knotty problem of neonics there) from oil and gas shortages have to factored in although the higher price for the end product might offset that. The canola producers across the pond will presumably be happy, but as 80 - 90% of the N American crop is GM that raises issues for users here.

[french frank]

Imagine though that, as an alternative to sending more arms to Ukraine, the emphasis was put on spreading information within Russia about the invasion, supporting anti-government organisations there, as well as disaffected elements within the Russian armed forces - since any end to the aggression is much more likely to come from within Russia than from Ukraine.

To get back (depressingly) to what really matters - to me at least - more than the availability of crisps (declaration of interest: I don't eat crisps), if 'any end to the aggression is much more likely to come from within Russia than from Ukraine', then I don't think the end is in sight. The battle is for Russian 'hearts and minds'. I'm sure there's nothing wrong with Russian hearts, but minds are harder for the west to wrench control of in the face of all the propaganda. Families in Russia won't believe what they're told by their own relatives who KNOW the truth.

"But it’s also crazy to see how everyone around me, the vast majority of people that I know, people I considered friends, are supporting Russia in this conflict.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/06/russian-teacher-shocked-as-she-faces-jail-over-anti-war-speech-pupils-taped

I'm not clear from this story whether the pupils were innocently trying to spread the word, whether they wanted to test the reactions of friends, or whether it was done to report their teacher. What the west is already doing (or can do) to convince Russians that they are being misled I don't know. People listen to the narratives they welcome and reject or ignore the unwelcome: look at the US and Trump.

[Frances_iom]

.... The battle is for Russian 'hearts and minds'. I'm sure there's nothing wrong with Russian hearts, but minds are harder for the west to wrench control of in the face of all the propaganda. Families in Russia won't believe what they're told by their own relatives who KNOW the truth. .

Though it is from the BBC apparently despised by all true thinking left wingers as state controlled but worth reading https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61008293
but as I replied to a previous post , we living in the relatively free West, cannot imagine life under totalitarian control - the nearest thing to it is the behavour of certain religious cults and their indoctrination tho luckily most of these are, in the UK at least, denied weapons.

[Dave2002]

I'm not so fussed about lack of crisps as the effects of finding substitutes which I fear for many applications will mean increasing demand for palm oil, with all the serious implications its production has. In theory increased demand for rapeseed oil could benefit UK producers but the timing will be wrong for most growers to take advantage of this year I think, even for a late crop which some growers do. It is a high input crop so constraints on fertiliser and insecticides(and the knotty problem of neonics there) from oil and gas shortages have to factored in although the higher price for the end product might offset that. The canola producers across the pond will presumably be happy, but as 80 - 90% of the N American crop is GM that raises issues for users here.

I think the concern here is not about our own personal desire or otherwise for crisps, but that we live in a very interconnected world.

Right now like others I'm more concerned about the effects on the people who are suffering in and from Ukraine, but I can imagine that in a few weeks time when oil, gas, electricity and other prices have risen, and some commodities have become more scarce, and elections in various countries start to come into view, that the GBP (Great British Public) will think 'S*d it - get this fixed ..." and will have little real concern for those who have, and will continue to suffer.

[Serial_Apologist]

I think the concern here is not about our own personal desire or otherwise for crisps, but that we live in a very interconnected world.

Right now like others I'm more concerned about the effects on the people who are suffering in and from Ukraine, but I can imagine that in a few weeks time when oil, gas, electricity and other prices have risen, and some commodities have become more scarce, and elections in various countries start to come into view, that the GBP (Great British Public) will think 'S*d it - get this fixed ..." and will have little real concern for those who have, and will continue to suffer.

I think this is known as "whataboutery".

[RichardB]

if 'any end to the aggression is much more likely to come from within Russia than from Ukraine', then I don't think the end is in sight. The battle is for Russian 'hearts and minds'. I'm sure there's nothing wrong with Russian hearts, but minds are harder for the west to wrench control of in the face of all the propaganda. Families in Russia won't believe what they're told by their own relatives who KNOW the truth. (...) What the west is already doing (or can do) to convince Russians that they are being misled I don't know. People listen to the narratives they welcome and reject or ignore the unwelcome: look at the US and Trump.

Indeed. And of course the longer the disconnection from reality goes on, the more stubbornly people stick to it. And Russian people have suffered for centuries from brutality either from within and without (and often both), which no doubt lends further credibility to the idea that once more Russia is the victim rather than the aggressor. But I still find it hard to believe that human beings can develop such lethally sophisticated weapons with which to kill people, but not a way of communicating the truth about a situation like this to the people who most need to know it.

[french frank]

But I still find it hard to believe that human beings can develop such lethally sophisticated weapons with which to kill people, but not a way of communicating the truth about a situation like this to the people who most need to know it.

But surely, the problem is not only communicating the truth, it's getting people to believe it. The development of lethal weapons has a much longer history.

Elsewhere, it's interesting to see Poland and Hungary going different ways on Russia after, from the EU viewpoint, they've been put in the same box. The similarities between Russia and Nazi Germany not lost on the Poles whereas Orbán's stated position is to stay out of the conflict as far as possible - in Hungary's own interests.

[Dave2002]

But surely, the problem is not only communicating the truth, it's getting people to believe it. The development of lethal weapons has a much longer history.

Belief is difficult to estimate.

A recent report in Time suggested that support for Putin and "the war" was rising in Russia - but how would we or anyone else know? If expressing an opinion or showing support for anything other than "the official line" is likely to lead to bad things, then many people may claim to support something they don't believe in. Some will be genuinely supportive, others less so.

I'm trying to find the original article, but in the meantime there's this:

[suppressed pending checks]

Here's the article on support - [suppressed pending checks]

[RichardB]

But surely, the problem is not only communicating the truth, it's getting people to believe it. The development of lethal weapons has a much longer history.

Does it? Communication has gone on since before there were people, let alone weapons. Anyway, yes, getting people to believe the truth is problematic, not helped by all those pretentious intellectuals who've been claiming for years that we're living in a "post-truth society" where reality is somehow negotiable... well, try to negotiate your way out of being shelled by heavy artillery.

[french frank]

Does it? Communication has gone on since before there were people, let alone weapons.

I did mean communicating in the current circumstances. It would need new techniques to get through to people living in a totalitarian state where all the usual broadcast/social media are blocked from communicating anything to anyone which goes against the state's version of events - under the severe penalty of being thrown into jail. And it's not only persuading people that they're being misled, it's getting them to access alternative communication sources when they have no incentive to do so. If people are watching Fox News for getting the true news, they don't/won't watch CNN/MSNBC. That is the challenge, isn't it?

There was a story a few days ago that Fox News viewers in the US were being paid to watch CNN for a certain number of hours each day. The result was that this did modify their opinions. The study was rubbished by some (“If you forced me to watch CNN for 30 days, I’d say anything to make it stop.” Joe Guster, Unemployed “If there’s one thing that’ll win over Fox News viewers, it’s a scientific study.” Derill Landgraf, Effort Analyst But theses attitudes simply highlight the difficulties.)

[EnemyoftheStoat]

Belief is difficult to estimate.

A recent report in Time suggested that support for Putin and "the war" was rising in Russia - but how would we or anyone else know? If expressing an opinion or showing support for anything other than "the official line" is likely to lead to bad things, then many people may claim to support something they don't believe in. Some will be genuinely supportive, others less so.

I shouldn't be surprised if Russian government (or press) opinion polls were purely binary - without "don't know" as an alternative to "yes" or "no" in support of the special military operation. If so, those answering "no" are brave souls. Even a "don't know" would be brave.

[Petrushka]

There must still be many thousands of Russians who lived in Soviet times. Watching some of those elderly Muscovites being interviewed in the early says of the war claiming to support the war and Putin, I had the feeling that they remembered the old times and were saying the 'right' thing to get rid of the stupid Western journalists with their thoughtless and dangerous questions. The older people would have known that coming out with their real feelings could have dangerous consequences for them and their families.

We in the West have trouble understanding the self preservation mentality that older Russians must still have, so I don't give much credence to polls that allegedly say that most older Russians support Putin. I think that Russians will be better informed than we imagine.

Who is the conscience of Russia these days? Where are the Solzhenitsyns, the Sakharovs, the Rostropovichs of today?

[RichardB]

There was a story a few days ago that Fox News viewers in the US were being paid to watch CNN for a certain number of hours each day.

Yes I read about that too. The problem now is, of course, that we're making it increasingly difficult to pay Russian people for anything! As you say, new techniques are required. But human beings are pretty ingenious. I can't help feeling that if enough effort and cash were devoted to such a project it might achieve something, although perhaps Western governments wouldn't appreciate the same techniques being used to expose their own misleading propaganda.

[RichardB]

I don't give much credence to polls that allegedly say that most older Russians support Putin. I think that Russians will be better informed than we imagine.

Quite.

Where are the Solzhenitsyns, the Sakharovs, the Rostropovichs of today?

They would have been able to leave Russia much more easily than their predecessors, for a start. And these days Putin seems to have little compunction about just throwing dissidents in jail or having them murdered.

[french frank]

Who is the conscience of Russia these days? Where are the Solzhenitsyns, the Sakharovs, the Rostropovichs of today?

I'm sure they're still around, but how would we know? Once the dust settles on Ukraine, for better or worse, things may start to open up in Russia. When you don't have a free society with freedom of speech you don't have free polls or free elections but older people for whom living under the Soviet regime is still a clear memory are probably more resigned to the return of the old restrictions - and reduced living standards.