Ukraine

[ardcarp]

A non sequitur, but some heartening singing from Ukraine...if you can log on to facebook, that is:

https://www.facebook.com/100000268900392/posts/5380304745321769/?d=n

[Historian]

We now have a clearer idea of Ukraine's position in the latest talks. Effectively, Ukraine would give up joining NATO in return for much stronger guarantees of immediate direct military support and a 'no-fly zone' in the face of any future attack. This would be enforced by a multi-national array of guarantor countries. The status of the Crimea would be the subject of 'consultations' over a long period, with further discussions about the two other regions previously taken from Ukraine. Ukraine would still be permitted to join the EU.

This is hopeful in that it could eventually lead to a ceasefire rather than a lengthy, ruinous war in Ukraine. Not sure how keen Putin would be to give up his gains in the South, but this may be a better deal that he would able to get later. He could probably 'sell it' to the Russian population.

I am not convinced by Russian overtures of de-escalation around Kyiv and Chernihiv, but would be happy to be proved wrong. That looks to me more like a means of extricating their forces from a worsening situation in the North.

Of course, this may all lead to nothing but it's considerable progress considering where we were a few days ago.

[french frank]

Of course, this may all lead to nothing but it's considerable progress considering where we were a few days ago.

Would love to be a fly on the wall at the negotiations (with a simultaneous translator fly to help with the language). Can't help feeling that it's better to accept what Russia says at face value rather than 'show scepticism'. It does look as if they want to extricate themselves from the situation in the north where they can't see any obvious further gains in the short term. So get the Russians out of their hole as cheaply as possible - i.e. without conceding too much. Are diplomats wily and devious???

[Historian]

Can't help feeling that it's better to accept what Russia says at face value rather than 'show scepticism'. ... Are diplomats wily and devious???

Wily, yes, always (at least the effective ones). Devious... sometimes (on both sides).

Quite hard not to distrust what Putin's side say given their record. However, I would like to be wrong about this one.

(Delighted by the very practical concept of the simultaneous translator fly.)

[Petrushka]

We now have a clearer idea of Ukraine's position in the latest talks. Effectively, Ukraine would give up joining NATO in return for much stronger guarantees of immediate direct military support and a 'no-fly zone' in the face of any future attack. This would be enforced by a multi-national array of guarantor countries. The status of the Crimea would be the subject of 'consultations' over a long period, with further discussions about the two other regions previously taken from Ukraine. Ukraine would still be permitted to join the EU.

This is hopeful in that it could eventually lead to a ceasefire rather than a lengthy, ruinous war in Ukraine. Not sure how keen Putin would be to give up his gains in the South, but this may be a better deal that he would able to get later. He could probably 'sell it' to the Russian population.

I am not convinced by Russian overtures of de-escalation around Kyiv and Chernihiv, but would be happy to be proved wrong. That looks to me more like a means of extricating their forces from a worsening situation in the North.

Of course, this may all lead to nothing but it's considerable progress considering where we were a few days ago.

I share your views here but it would, as I see it, and if true, be an utterly humiliating defeat for Putin. So much so, in fact, that I'm wondering if Putin hasn't already been sidelined, or even been 'disappeared'. The Russians are in an ever increasing predicament; in the north, their armies are facing possible annihilation; the cost of the war (did I read a figure of $5billion dollars a day?) is unsustainable; sanctions and the cost of the war are crippling the Russian economy. Allied to this is the cost of reparations for the massive damage to Ukraine. The war is totally unwinnable by Russia and was from the start. You have to ask if it was worthwhile in any meaningful way.

For Ukraine, the damage to their infrastructure and people is immense and will take many years of re-building. Some form of Marshall Plan investment will surely be needed but thinking of the speed with which Germany and Japan re-built their shattered cities, it will be possible. As for Russia, who knows? It's very important that they are not knocked back into the Stone Age. If handled badly, the country could be another Germany post 1918 with all that that might entail for the future. Russia, post Putin, post war, eventually needs to come into the European family of nations and become a civilised country instead of endlessly repeating its history.

[richardfinegold]

I share your views here but it would, as I see it, and if true, be an utterly humiliating defeat for Putin. So much so, in fact, that I'm wondering if Putin hasn't already been sidelined, or even been 'disappeared'. The Russians are in an ever increasing predicament; in the north, their armies are facing possible annihilation; the cost of the war (did I read a figure of $5billion dollars a day?) is unsustainable; sanctions and the cost of the war are crippling the Russian economy. Allied to this is the cost of reparations for the massive damage to Ukraine. The war is totally unwinnable by Russia and was from the start. You have to ask if it was worthwhile in any meaningful way.

For Ukraine, the damage to their infrastructure and people is immense and will take many years of re-building. Some form of Marshall Plan investment will surely be needed but thinking of the speed with which Germany and Japan re-built their shattered cities, it will be possible. As for Russia, who knows? It's very important that they are not knocked back into the Stone Age. If handled badly, the country could be another Germany post 1918 with all that that might entail for the future. Russia, post Putin, post war, eventually needs to come into the European family of nations and become a civilised country instead of endlessly repeating its history.

I don’t think Russia will suffer as Germany did under the Versailles treaty. They probably won’t have to make financial restitution to Ukraine, and the World wants to do business with them. Withdrawal of sanctions will be part of Putin’s “victory “ to sell to the Russian people

[Dave2002]

I don’t think Russia will suffer as Germany did under the Versailles treaty. They probably won’t have to make financial restitution to Ukraine, and the World wants to do business with them. Withdrawal of sanctions will be part of Putin’s “victory “ to sell to the Russian people

Sadly I agree with you, though I really don't see why sanctions shouldn't continue for a long while. A very long while.

[Historian]

The war is totally unwinnable by Russia and was from the start. You have to ask if it was worthwhile in any meaningful way.

Agree with lots of what you say. It would be good to focus sanctions on Putin and his direct supporters as much as possible, although we should not underestimate his support among the 'ordinary' Russians.

However, I don't think many people were predicting a stalemate (and potentially worse) when Russia invaded. If Putin's assessment of relative strengths had been accurate then the war could have been over by now. That would depend on the extent of his aims, but a scenario of a swift capture of Kiev and the supplanting of Zelensky was seen as more than likely by many analysts when Russia first invaded.

Let us hope that Ukraine is rebuilt swiftly when the war is over and that Russia is able to enter happier times sooner rather than later.

[Bryn]

Agree with lots of what you say. It would be good to focus sanctions on Putin and his direct supporters as much as possible, although we should not underestimate his support among the 'ordinary' Russians.

However, I don't think many people were predicting a stalemate (and potentially worse) when Russia invaded. If Putin's assessment of relative strengths had been accurate then the war could have been over by now. That would depend on the extent of his aims, but a scenario of a swift capture of Kiev[sic] and the supplanting of Zelensky was seen as more than likely by many analysts when Russia first invaded.

Let us hope that Ukraine is rebuilt swiftly when the war is over and that Russia is able to enter happier times sooner rather than later.

I am reminded of an elderly German couple I met a few miles outside Tenby, back in 1974. The husband had been a prisoner of war and in that situation, worked as a farmhand in the area. After the war, he sent for his then young wife and they settled in a small cottage there, and eventually while continuing to work as a farmhand, built up a smallholding. I interviewed them in connection with a "learn from the people, learn from the past" project. Both related how they had supported Hiller in the 1930s and only much later learned of his excesses, a revelation that helped them decide to settle in Wales. I can well imagine that many (most) Russians find themselves in a similarly uninformed situation regarding Putin and his regime.

[mahlerfan]

I am reminded of an elderly German couple I met a few miles outside Tenby, back in 1974. The husband had been a prisoner of war and in that situation, worked as a farmhand in the area. After the war, he sent for his then young wife and they settled in a small cottage there, and eventually while continuing to work as a farmhand, built up a smallholding. I interviewed them in connection with a "learn from the people, learn from the past" project. Both related how they had supported Hiller in the 1930s and only much later learned of his excesses, a revelation that helped them decide to settle in Wales. I can well imagine that many (most) Russians find themselves in a similarly uninformed situation regarding Putin and his regime.

But surely what Hiller did can't be considered equivalent to Putin invading Ukraine, even though that's bad enough.

[richardfinegold]

I am reminded of an elderly German couple I met a few miles outside Tenby, back in 1974. The husband had been a prisoner of war and in that situation, worked as a farmhand in the area. After the war, he sent for his then young wife and they settled in a small cottage there, and eventually while continuing to work as a farmhand, built up a smallholding. I interviewed them in connection with a "learn from the people, learn from the past" project. Both related how they had supported Hiller in the 1930s and only much later learned of his excesses, a revelation that helped them decide to settle in Wales. I can well imagine that many (most) Russians find themselves in a similarly uninformed situation regarding Putin and his regime.

I once had an elderly couple as patients that were teens when the War ended. The Husband had been pressed into duty as cannon fodder during the last few weeks, when he was 14 years old. After knowing them for many years they revealed that they had emigrated when they found out their families were actively involved in the crimes of the Third Reich and that they felt disgusted and ashamed when none of them would own to any guilty feelings.

[Bryn]

But surely what Hiller did can't be considered equivalent to Putin invading Ukraine, even though that's bad enough.

The parallel I draw is in the suppression of information and the use of propaganda in both societies, and its consequent effects on popular internal support for those regimes.

[richardfinegold]

The media here is depicting the Russian pullback around Kviv as being of necessity, the Military leaders being fearful of their conscript Army being encircled and surrendering

[Bryn]

The media here is depicting the Russian pullback around Kviv as being of necessity, the Military leaders being fearful of their conscript Army being encircled and surrendering

There have been some reports of significant numbers not only surrendering but switching sides. Perhaps a reflection of the closeness of the two nations that did not come into Putin's calculations.

[Dave2002]

There have been some reports of significant numbers not only surrendering but switching sides. Perhaps a reflection of the closeness of the two nations that did not come into Putin's calculations.

Maybe, though many people in Moscow are probably pretty much unaware of what's going on. Prices in shops have gone up around 50% very recently - and some there might wonder why! There are still young (and perhaps older people) who seem well aware of what's going on, and they are also apparently able to get round the information restrictions. I'll leave it there, for the moment.