Ukraine

[RichardB]

600.000 is doable because anything is doable

This is the point. But it needs commitment, as you say - I'm sure that ordinary people will do what they can to help refugees, but I'm not at all sure that the government is prepared to do what's necessary to help the process along. From May's development of a "hostile environment" to Patel's seemingly pathological opposition to immigration and the clown's constant blathering about the "control" that's apparently been taken back through Brexit, the signs aren't good.

[Ein Heldenleben]

As a comparison the Syrian conflict is believed to have generated 6 to 7 million refugees . The UK has admitted 20,000 or so. In the city where I live there’s even an Aleppo café. For some reason having a quick espresso there would feel a bit weird perhaps because of the destruction associated with the name. I think 10 to 20,000 refugees is perfectly “ doable “ perhaps even more. The Syrian refugees were absorbed over a long time scale.
I think it still Ukraine government policy not to encourage refugee acceptance on the grounds of undermining wartime morale - but that might well have changed. Things are so fast moving (with the exception of Russian tank columns )

[Bryn]

Spotted on FB, a highly apposite name for the Cities of London and Westminster: "Laundrograd".

[french frank]

I think it still Ukraine government policy not to encourage refugee acceptance on the grounds of undermining wartime morale - but that might well have changed.

The real dilemma. The Ukrainians who are determined to fight it out can't actually welcome the mass exodus of Ukrainians, which mirrors the emigrations due to famine during the Stalin era. Putin won't mind: all the more space for Russian settlers once they wrap up the war.

[Ein Heldenleben]

The real dilemma. The Ukrainians who are determined to fight it out can't actually welcome the mass exodus of Ukrainians, which mirrors the emigrations due to famine during the Stalin era. Putin won't mind: all the more space for Russian settlers once they wrap up the war.

There is a very interesting map in the Times based on UNHCR figures which indicates that the Russians have taken 53,000 refugees. There are reports of 8,000 refugee visa applications in the UK “pipeline”. It is to be hoped that those are processed rather more quickly than my recent passport renewal.

[Dave2002]

Odesans have been on balance pro-Russia, but the idea that Russians might attack/bomb Odesa seems to change minds. Allegedly. It's not a question of 'believing or disbelieving'. It's a question of 'not knowing'. Whether you believe or disbelieve may be affected by the prejudice you start out with.

I don't think it's even possible to say that Odesans have been "on balance pro-Russia", but it was true that some in Ukraine were less condemning of Russia, or had some sympathies in that direction, for all sorts of reasons. My guess is that the balance has now strongly swung in the opposite direction - but as you have written, my view is flavoured by my own biases.

I have seen enough news reports and videos from around the world which seem genuine, and I doubt that the CIA and Holywood could create such images in the short time since the end of February and with the resources they have. It may be that the BBC and other western news outlets are lying - but on the whole I don't think so. One possibility is that the very long Russian convoy doesn't actually exist and that the satellite pictures purporting to show it are in fact fake - but even so I rather doubt it.

I have been to Ukraine and also to Russia, and I have - or have had - friends or colleagues in both countries. There was a time when I started to believe that Russia - or its leaders - were starting to behave rationally and reasonably, but that was quite a while ago and for a very limited time window.

Very sad times!

[Bryn]

Russia has taken those 53,000 'refugees' from the generally Russophile east of Ukraine. There is no real surprise in that.

[Dave2002]

The real dilemma. The Ukrainians who are determined to fight it out can't actually welcome the mass exodus of Ukrainians, which mirrors the emigrations due to famine during the Stalin era. Putin won't mind: all the more space for Russian settlers once they wrap up the war.

Russia has plenty of space already. Remember also that it's only women, children and older men and non Ukrainian visitors who can leave Ukraine at the moment. Some of those who remain may not want to fight, but perhaps many do - and have been given weapons. Leaving Ukraine for those who are allowed to leave is very difficult, hazardous and unpleasant, but probably better than the alternative.

[oddoneout]

Spotted on FB, a highly apposite name for the Cities of London and Westminster: "Laundrograd".

Londongrad Laundromat has become common usage.

[french frank]

I don't think it's even possible to say that Odesans have been "on balance pro-Russia",

Just on that single point, I was speaking of the situation before the crisis began when polls were taken.

"A survey in September last year showed that 68% of Odesa residents agreed with Vladimir Putin’s statement that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people”, while only 20% of people thought the future of Ukraine was in integration with Europe. Thirty-eight per cent wanted closer ties with Russia, and 27% neutrality.

However, the events of the past two weeks may have dramatically altered such figures."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/07/beyond-understanding-odesa-braced-to-see-if-putin-attacks-city-of-such-resonance-for-russians

But of course, I could be just sharing pro-West propaganda, if you will. The mayor who has now veered from one side to the other already had a dodgy reputation. But … taking the known facts, what do they suggst?

[french frank]

Quote Originally Posted by french frank View Post
The real dilemma. The Ukrainians who are determined to fight it out can't actually welcome the mass exodus of Ukrainians, which mirrors the emigrations due to famine during the Stalin era. Putin won't mind: all the more space for Russian settlers once they wrap up the war.

Russia has plenty of space already.

It's not shortage of space that's the issue: it's Putin's aim to take over Ukraine.

[oddoneout]

There is a very interesting map in the Times based on UNHCR figures which indicates that the Russians have taken 53,000 refugees. There are reports of 8,000 refugee visa applications in the UK “pipeline”. It is to be hoped that those are processed rather more quickly than my recent passport renewal.

The Home Office says the UK has granted visas to 300 Ukrainian refugees under its new scheme so far, and that 17,700 applications to re-join relatives have been started.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60555472 [earlier today]
Meanwhile Ireland lifted visa requirements for those joining family and well over 600 are thought to have already arrived there.

[Serial_Apologist]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60555472 [earlier today]
Meanwhile Ireland lifted visa requirements for those joining family and well over 600 are thought to have already arrived there.

In response to someone phoning in to point out the number of refugees being taken in by Poland being over a million so far, another moaned that we were a much smaller country than Poland. To which the next caller pointed out that the Republic of Ireland is smaller still!

[Dave2002]

It's not shortage of space that's the issue: it's Putin's aim to take over Ukraine.

Maybe, but he seems hell bent on trashing it first. I'm sure that there are (aren't there....?) Aesop's fables about that kind of behaviour. I had hoped that with increasing "civilisation" such things would not happen, but obviously that was a triumph of hope over experience.

[french frank]

Maybe, but he seems hell bent on trashing it first. I'm sure that there are (aren't there....?) Aesop's fables about that kind of behaviour. I had hoped that with increasing "civilisation" such things would not happen, but obviously that was a triumph of hope over experience.

I suspect the appearance of characters like Hitler and Putin can always be explained with hindsight, but are still unpredictable when they appear. It doesn't matter whether parts of Ukraine are 'trashed'. The important thing is that they are under Russian control; and if part of a 'neutral' buffer zone that they are still considered by Russia/Putin to be their 'sphere of influence'.

I'm still not clear why Putin would believe Russian security was at risk if there were no buffer zone between NATO countries and Russia. What history is there of a peaceful Russia being interfered with by the West? These aren't rhetorical questions which presume that Russia would never be infiltrated/attacked and … what? their communist state overturned by capitalists? How is Russian security threatened more by NATO being a neighbour than by Russia attacking Ukraine?