Ukraine

[Dave2002]

Belarus has refused to commit troops to help in Russia's invasion having first decided to then stepped back. Suggests that Lukashenko isn't as confident of Russian victory after all and there might have been mutinies. Looks like the Mussolini figure.

Do you actually believe anything which comes out of the "rulers" of Belarus or Russia?

[duncan]

Where are the offers for direct discussions between NATO and Russia?

Third party mediation is a standard practice in conflict resolution, especially in the early ('talks about talks') stages. George Mitchell's role in the Northern Ireland peace process is one example. The faint ray of hope in this catastrophe is that this might be happening with Macron and Naftali Bennett.

Wouldn't this be a good idea since NATO is the real enemy as far as Putin is concerned?

That's what Putin says. Given Putin's record I don't think we have to take this at face value.

Moving away from the blame game momentarily, this article by Professor Lawrence Freedman on quite how badly the war is going for Russia is interesting.

https://samf.substack.com/p/space-and-time?s=r

Thanks for this. Someone who has studied armed conflict for a long time is worth reading. As with the pandemic, a lot of instant experts seem to have appeared out of nowhere.

(Slight digression: when I shared a house with people from the Bradford Peace Studies department the standing joke was there were more pacifists in the KCL War Studies department where Prof. Freedman used to work)

[Petrushka]

Do you actually believe anything which comes out of the "rulers" of Belarus or Russia?

This from Professor Lawrance Freedman:

President Lukashenko of Belarus, Putin’s co-conspirator, provided a vital staging post for the Russian invasion, but even he may be dithering about the extent to which he wishes his own troops to be engaged, not least, one presumes, because this would add to his deep unpopularity.

Do you know anything different? Regret to say that I find the insinuation behind your question to verge on the offensive.

I'll now withdraw from this thread.

[Bryn]

Please consider signing this petition:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/609530

[Dave2002]

Do you know anything different? Regret to say that I find the insinuation behind your question to verge on the offensive.

I'll now withdraw from this thread.

I'm sorry you feel that way.

To answer your first question - "Probably yes".

[Dave2002]

Please consider signing this petition:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/609530

My understanding is that this will now be considered as the required number of votes has been reached.

There are dangers in allowing free entry to anyone and everyone without checks. However it does rather seem that the UK government is rather dragging its heels - while it should be possible to put some checks in place quite quickly, and provide humanitarian aid and sanctuary to people who really do need it.

[Bryn]

My understanding is that this will now be considered as the required number of votes has been reached.

There are dangers in allowing free entry to anyone and everyone without checks. However it does rather seem that the UK government is rather dragging its heels - while it should be possible to put some checks in place quite quickly, and provide humanitarian aid and sanctuary to people who really do need it.

There do, indeed, need to be safeguards in place, hence my use of the word "consider", rather than simply asking others to sign. As to the numbers, yes, it's reached the trigger point but the more who sign, the greater the impact it might have on the minds of MPs.

[EnemyoftheStoat]

My understanding is that this will now be considered as the required number of votes has been reached.

There are dangers in allowing free entry to anyone and everyone without checks. However it does rather seem that the UK government is rather dragging its heels - while it should be possible to put some checks in place quite quickly, and provide humanitarian aid and sanctuary to people who really do need it.

Perhaps, as with many of those who have been allowed to buy their way in, they should be allowed to do their own checks (as the refugees, unlike the oligarchs, are unlikely to have lawyers to do it for them).

[gradus]

Its easy, just phone up for an appointment, hop on a train to Paris or Brussels ideally one with a decent lunch menu and wine list and pop into the British Embassy pick up the Visa and fit in a spot of shopping and a pleasant dinner before getting the train back to Calais. What could be simpler.

[oddoneout]

My understanding is that this will now be considered as the required number of votes has been reached.

There are dangers in allowing free entry to anyone and everyone without checks. However it does rather seem that the UK government is rather dragging its heels - while it should be possible to put some checks in place quite quickly, and provide humanitarian aid and sanctuary to people who really do need it.

I can't help thinking that HMG's existing attitude to asylum seekers etc is at the root of the current hold-ups. Regarding everyone as undesirable and to be deterred, with the various processes designed to that end, doesn't lend itself to assuming that the current wave are genuine seekers of safety and need to be dealt with asap. What has really highlighted to me the failings is the complete shambles around those who already have relatives in this country - confusion, contradictory decisions, complete lack of any logic.
I also wonder what is going to happen about the sponsorship approach. A couple of local businesses with links to Ukraine have offered to take people already known to them and provide accommodation and support as necessary, Sadly I suspect that there efforts will be in vain, like the individuals who offered homes to Afghan professionals known to them directly or otherwise) but were told what they were offering was unsuitable as it wasn't in the city.
Keeping track of who is coming in and where they are going makes sense, but founders on the legacy of years when no such checks or records were made and kept as it was not considered necessary to control immigration - highlighted in the fall out from Brexit - unlike other EU countries.

[oddoneout]

Its easy, just phone up for an appointment, hop on a train to Paris or Brussels ideally one with a decent lunch menu and wine list and pop into the British Embassy pick up the Visa and fit in a spot of shopping and a pleasant dinner before getting the train back to Calais. What could be simpler.

Finding Priti Patel's humanity?

[Bryn]

Finding Priti Patel's humanity?

While I would concur, regarding the difficulty of such a search, the decades-long history of inculcated Home Office office attitudes also plays its part.

[Dave2002]

In the meantime the "fake news" New York Times has this - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/w...-families.html

Can't be true, can it!

[Ein Heldenleben]

Were the (UN estimate) of 5 million refugees to be divided equally between European countries (excluding Russia , Belarus and Ukraine) on a population basis that would mean 600,000 plus refugees coming to the UK .Migration statistics are not hugely accurate but the highest uk net migration figures I’ve seen were those for 2015 - some 300,000.
600.000 is doable because anything is doable but it would be a very very significant challenge to local authorities particularly in towns / cities of 100,000 where the majority would be resettled. A challenge because over the years their resources have been cut.
Of course the real figure wouldn’t be anything like 600,000 but even at a tenth of that - 60,000 - possibly the very least the UK could credibly offer given the millions that may soon be in Poland - that will need preparation now and not when it starts becoming a matter of life and death.

[french frank]

In the meantime the "fake news" New York Times has this - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/w...-families.html

Can't be true, can it!

Not just the NYT. There was a video on the BBC website with a young person anguished because her mother back in Russia refused to believe that "Russians would do such things." Every story has to be viewed through the confusing prism of war, but as the different facts are taken together pictures do gradually emerge. Ukraine has just announced that a second Russian general has been killed. Is it true? Well they claimed a general had been killed last week, and this was confirmed by the Russians, so ….

Odesans have been on balance pro-Russia, but the idea that Russians might attack/bomb Odesa seems to change minds. Allegedly. It's not a question of 'believing or disbelieving'. It's a question of 'not knowing'. Whether you believe or disbelieve may be affected by the prejudice you start out with.