Ukraine

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  • RichardB
    Banned
    • Nov 2021
    • 2170

    Yes, that essay by Lawrence Freedman is very interesting indeed. As LHC says, there are other things to discuss aside from how the present situation came about. Although indeed nothing in it contradicts the last article I linked to, particularly Freedman's citing the current view (in the West) that "Ukraine’s best hope is to defend for as long as possible to give economic sanctions the chance to bite", something that will have to be achieved without the air cover that Zelenskiy is asking for, and bearing in mind that it isn't at all clear how long it might take for the sanctions to "bite", given that for example Cuba has been under more punitive sanctions for the last six decades or so.

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    • RichardB
      Banned
      • Nov 2021
      • 2170

      Originally posted by Bryn View Post
      Sorry, but what is the evidence for Putin being actively drawn into "an expensive and draining quagmire . . . " by NATO? That is just a sleight of hand way of passing the blame from Putin to others.
      Not in the least. Given that Putin has invaded, NATO has a number of possible choices: allow Ukraine to be overrun and a puppet government installed by Putin; intervene militarily to force the Russian army out; arm the Ukrainian army in the knowledge that this will lead to a protracted conflict in which many Ukrainians will lose their lives but which with every passing month will weaken Putin's Russia; or put every possible effort into achieving a ceasefire followed by some kind of settlement which might stop the bloodshed. The first two possibilities have clearly been rejected for different reasons, and, it seems, so has the fourth.

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      • RichardB
        Banned
        • Nov 2021
        • 2170

        Meanwhile... "Former president Donald Trump has floated the idea that US should the cover the fighter planes with Chinese flag and “bomb the s*** out of Russia”.



        It's often said that Vladimir Putin has taken leave of his senses, but this is on another level altogether.

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        • french frank
          Administrator/Moderator
          • Feb 2007
          • 30254

          Originally posted by RichardB View Post
          It's often said that Vladimir Putin has taken leave of his senses, but this is on another level altogether.
          Yes, but we've known this for a long time, haven't we? Remember, this is the man that wanted to 'nuke' the hurricanes. He is a man without even the semblance of intelligence, and he's still brighter than a lot of his supporters.

          Add: Forgot the bit about drinking bleach to kill the virus.
          It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.

          Comment

          • RichardB
            Banned
            • Nov 2021
            • 2170

            Originally posted by french frank View Post
            Yes, but we've known this for a long time, haven't we?
            Indeed, I thought I would bring it up because it's so off the scale even in comparison with his previous crazed utterances!

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            • RichardB
              Banned
              • Nov 2021
              • 2170

              Originally posted by HighlandDougie View Post
              nothing like a piece of sophistry as a justification ....
              It isn't sophistry, it's an acknowledgement of the complexity of the situation and the fact (surely clear to everyone with more than a child's understanding of the world) that it isn't just a matter of good guys vs. bad guys!

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              • Bryn
                Banned
                • Mar 2007
                • 24688

                Originally posted by RichardB View Post
                Not in the least. Given that Putin has invaded, NATO has a number of possible choices: allow Ukraine to be overrun and a puppet government installed by Putin; intervene militarily to force the Russian army out; arm the Ukrainian army in the knowledge that this will lead to a protracted conflict in which many Ukrainians will lose their lives but which with every passing month will weaken Putin's Russia; or put every possible effort into achieving a ceasefire followed by some kind of settlement which might stop the bloodshed. The first two possibilities have clearly been rejected for different reasons, and, it seems, so has the fourth.
                The fourth option you posit, I do not see as being entirely off the agenda, though it would appear that Russian forces have not honoured what ceasefires have so far been negotiated to permit humanitarian evacuation of civilians (other than to the tender embrace of Russia or Belorus, that is). Meanwhile, efforts continue to be made by various countries' leaders to push for a general ceasefire. Italy and, with due circumspection, Israel, spring to mind. Had NATO found itself able to admit Ukraine, well in advance of this invasion, the possibility of the second option might have prevented Putin's adventure, but the situation in eastern Ukraine and the role of the Azov regiment made that a non-starter. It seems pretty clear that the Ukrainian people themselves ruled out the first option.

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                • gradus
                  Full Member
                  • Nov 2010
                  • 5606

                  Is Belarus quite as dependable for Putin as seems given the fairly recent history of mass protest against the 're-election' of the resident tyrant? I haven't seen much comment on this.

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                  • Serial_Apologist
                    Full Member
                    • Dec 2010
                    • 37616

                    Originally posted by gradus View Post
                    Is Belarus quite as dependable for Putin as seems given the fairly recent history of mass protest against the 're-election' of the resident tyrant? I haven't seen much comment on this.
                    Gut feeling suggests to me that popular political feeling towards government in Belarus would probably be much the same as that in Russia.

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                    • Petrushka
                      Full Member
                      • Nov 2010
                      • 12240

                      Originally posted by Serial_Apologist View Post
                      Gut feeling suggests to me that popular political feeling towards government in Belarus would probably be much the same as that in Russia.
                      Belarus has refused to commit troops to help in Russia's invasion having first decided to then stepped back. Suggests that Lukashenko isn't as confident of Russian victory after all and there might have been mutinies. Looks like the Mussolini figure.
                      "The sound is the handwriting of the conductor" - Bernard Haitink

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                      • gradus
                        Full Member
                        • Nov 2010
                        • 5606

                        Originally posted by Petrushka View Post
                        Belarus has refused to commit troops to help in Russia's invasion having first decided to then stepped back. Suggests that Lukashenko isn't as confident of Russian victory after all and there might have been mutinies. Looks like the Mussolini figure.
                        I too had Mussolini in mind. Does a similar fate await him..

                        Comment

                        • Serial_Apologist
                          Full Member
                          • Dec 2010
                          • 37616

                          Originally posted by Petrushka View Post
                          Belarus has refused to commit troops to help in Russia's invasion having first decided to then stepped back. Suggests that Lukashenko isn't as confident of Russian victory after all and there might have been mutinies. Looks like the Mussolini figure.
                          Interesting in view of the Russians' attempts to substitute for western rescue agencies in the besieged cities by transferring uprooted Ukrainians to Russia and Belarus, where doubtless there will be labour camps to welcome them.

                          Comment

                          • french frank
                            Administrator/Moderator
                            • Feb 2007
                            • 30254

                            Originally posted by RichardB View Post
                            Not in the least. Given that Putin has invaded, NATO has a number of possible choices: allow Ukraine to be overrun and a puppet government installed by Putin; intervene militarily to force the Russian army out; arm the Ukrainian army in the knowledge that this will lead to a protracted conflict in which many Ukrainians will lose their lives but which with every passing month will weaken Putin's Russia; or put every possible effort into achieving a ceasefire followed by some kind of settlement which might stop the bloodshed. The first two possibilities have clearly been rejected for different reasons, and, it seems, so has the fourth.
                            The problem with that analysis is that something called "NATO" doesn't actually have those choices. Or by "NATO" do you mean "the governments of the Western powers"? They have actually chosen option 3 which you have apparently written off as a terrible decision. The fourth should in theory be the best but what does the West do to bring about meaningful discussion with Putin? There are apparently discussions going on between Ukraine and Russia where Russia allows the escape corridors for civilians to leave and then shells them when they do attempt it. It also appears they are only allowed to "escape" to either Russia or Belarus. Has this been confirmed?

                            Has the fourth possibility been rejected? By whom?
                            It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.

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                            • RichardB
                              Banned
                              • Nov 2021
                              • 2170

                              Originally posted by french frank View Post
                              by "NATO" do you mean "the governments of the Western powers"?
                              By "NATO" I mean basically the Pentagon. Where are the offers for direct discussions between NATO and Russia? Wouldn't this be a good idea since NATO is the real enemy as far as Putin is concerned?

                              Meanwhile, the clown has this to say: "If you look at the the situation in the EU, they have a border-free zone, in Schengen. They can’t actually impose controls, even if they wanted to.
                              We have a different system. And I think it’s sensible, given what’s going on in Ukraine, to make sure that we have some basic ability to check who’s coming in and who isn’t". So that means that one of the advantages of Brexit is that we have the "control" that enables us to refuse entry to Ukrainian refugees (that we've made a big fuss about supporting), right? As Keir Starmer said this morning "there should be a simple route to sanctuary for those that are fleeing for their lives". I'm no fan of Starmer of course, but this is the way it should be.

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                              • french frank
                                Administrator/Moderator
                                • Feb 2007
                                • 30254

                                Originally posted by RichardB View Post
                                By "NATO" I mean basically the Pentagon.
                                Thank you. That does clarify matters as it's not exactly what I had understood by NATO

                                Originally posted by RichardB View Post
                                Where are the offers for direct discussions between NATO and Russia? Wouldn't this be a good idea since NATO is the real enemy as far as Putin is concerned?
                                Yes, it would be a good idea - and I take it you mean why hasn't the Pentagon come up with an offer. I understood the US Commander in Chief has spoken with Putin? but it might be a question of, 'What is Putin demanding?' rather than, 'What is Putin prepared to offer'.

                                Originally posted by RichardB View Post
                                Meanwhile, the clown has this to say
                                Thank you, I'd rather not. An ignorant bully who's wandered into the wrong room. Offer him a few billion dollars to shut up and go away and he might accept.

                                Originally posted by RichardB View Post
                                As Keir Starmer said this morning "there should be a simple route to sanctuary for those that are fleeing for their lives". I'm no fan of Starmer of course, but this is the way it should be.
                                That's the least that should be acceptable to all parties.
                                It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.

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