Ukraine

[Dave2002]

There is absolutely no comparison between the two. Total deaths were under a thousand.

That is my understanding too, but only from possibly very unreliable internet sources.

Today we have a full on war with both sides well armed .I would be “relieved “ if the final tally is below 30, 000 . If the Ukrainians keep going for some time it could be a lot more than that. If it leads to extended counter-insurgency , in which the Ukrainians have a great deal of experience, then even more I’m afraid .
Interestingly when the Soviet’s invaded in’68 along with other Warsaw Pact countries they took in 250,000 troops - more than now.

But probably not such deadly weapons - though deadly enough for the times.

I don't know whether the invasions in 1956 or 1968 were a surprise or not. They may not have been to military analysts, and intelligence organisations, but to me they came out of the blue - unlike the current invasion. Arguably that might have been helpful in avoiding casualties - though other issues can be left to historians.

[french frank]

But neither Chomsky nor STW are offering any "justifications" for what Putin is doing, I think you have a straw person on your hands there

Not exactly a straw man. I didn't say Chomsky said that. Precisely, I said in #253 "As Chomsky does say, explanations are not justifications." You took my later comment out of context.

Indeed - but I don't see how it can possibly be "irrelevant" to understand how we got here.

Irrelevant to what we do now which seems, at least to me, rather more urgent. The word I've heard now in several places is of finding an "offramp". What we would call a slip road but in its figurative meaning 'an escape route' for Putin. But that depends on what he would be satisfied with.

As Chomsky says, the choice might well be giving Putin enough of what he wants in order to avoid massively more bloodshed or even annihilation. To come to that conclusion involves analysing the events and processes which led to the invasion. Make no mistake: the powers that be might want us not to acknowledge the role of NATO for reasons of suppressing any questioning of their authority, but they know the truth of it just as well as anyone else, as we see from Chomsky's quoting not loony lefty peaceniks but US government figures and diplomats. Eventually the accommodation they ought to have the sense to reach will be pretty much the same as what they could have achieved at any time in the last few years, except that thousands of innocent people will have died in the meantime.

My main argument is that this is not the moment for sitting down and analysing 'what the West got wrong'. The main message from the present situation is that the ex-Soviet satellites were right to fear invasion from Putin's Russia and to seek protection; and that NATO is not necessarily the gung-ho America-led outfit ready for any opportunity to go in on the Ruskies with all guns blazing.

I'm not sure that the West has been waiting for Chomsky to come along and explain what they're doing wrongly. If they have learnt from the past, so much the better. With the harrowing scenes that are emerging, intervention to "stop the violence" must be very appealing but the western nations (disappointing though that may be for some) are behaving responsibly.

[Serial_Apologist]

So much for Communist ideals then!

The point is that the ideals were thwarted not by ordinary Czechs and Slovaks campaigning and organising for grass roots-up reforms that would have been more in line with "communist ideals" but by bureaucrats in Moscow!

[Ein Heldenleben]

That was one of the reasons I was so surprised that the invasion took place at all - Czechoslovakia and Hungary, moreover, are much smaller than Ukraine - and no doubt now is one of the reasons why the invasion has not gone as well as was probably intended. I imagine that Putin's generals told him it wasn't feasible but he went ahead and did it anyway, a strategy that didn't work out too well for Hitler.

Putin is only using a fraction of his total army strength . It’s the (on most rank lists) the second most powerful army in the world. Not big enough to guarantee victory against NATO forces in an offensive war but almost certainly big enough to defend Russia should anyone be so ill-advised as to go down that path. It’s a bit of a mystery why he didn’t commit more forces.Possibly he didn’t rate the Ukraine Army , maybe he thought they’d be welcomed as liberators. What has surprised a lot of commentators is the relatively poor performance on the ground by Russian forces. In particular the single column advance to Kyiv looks badly bogged down. Against an enemy with air power they would be sitting ducks.

[Dave2002]

The point is that the ideals were thwarted not by ordinary Czechs and Slovaks campaigning and organising for grass roots-up reforms that would have been more in line with "communist ideals" but by bureaucrats in Moscow!

Some would substitute other words for "bureaucrats".

[RichardB]

Let's see how "responsibly" they continue to behave, given that the least worst outcome in terms of human lives, is going to be to give Putin at least some of what he wants, and in the process to "look weak", which isn't going to do Biden's Democrats any good at all in the midterm elections in November.

[Ein Heldenleben]

That is my understanding too, but only from possibly very unreliable internet sources.

But probably not such deadly weapons - though deadly enough for the times.

I don't know whether the invasions in 1956 or 1968 were a surprise or not. They may not have been to military analysts, and intelligence organisations, but to me they came out of the blue - unlike the current invasion. Arguably that might have been helpful in avoiding casualties - though other issues can be left to historians.

Yes one thing that has consistently struck and shocked me is the destructive power of modern day artillery shells, rockets , and cruise missiles . Possibly because of “advances “ in high explosive technology the blast power seems so much greater kg for kg than in WW2. I feel for those poor civilians - the blast and shrapnel injuries must be appalling. High velocity rifles also do a great deal more damage than WW2 , even seventies weaponry. Even a thick brick wall provides little cover.

[Serial_Apologist]

Not exactly a straw man. I didn't say Chomsky said that. Precisely, I said in #253 "As Chomsky does say, explanations are not justifications." You took my later comment out of context.

Irrelevant to what we do now which seems, at least to me, rather more urgent. The word I've heard now in several places is of finding an "offramp". What we would call a slip road but in its figurative meaning 'an escape route' for Putin. But that depends on what he would be satisfied with.



My main argument is that this is not the moment for sitting down and analysing 'what the West got wrong'. The main message from the present situation is that the ex-Soviet satellites were right to fear invasion from Putin's Russia and to seek protection; and that NATO is not necessarily the gung-ho America-led outfit ready for any opportunity to go in on the Ruskies with all guns blazing.

I'm not sure that the West has been waiting for Chomsky to come along and explain what they're doing wrongly. If they have learnt from the past, so much the better. With the harrowing scenes that are emerging, intervention to "stop the violence" must be very appealing but the western nations (disappointing though that may be for some) are behaving responsibly.

Sitting down and learning through discussion from past lessons is surely what we, threatened as we are told we are if we get military involved in Ukraine, should be using the current delay for doing? This is seldom what happens, however - the rhetorical "we are where we are" always has to take precedence, and so nothing ever gets resolved.

[Serial_Apologist]

Some would substitute other words for "bureaucrats".

Yes. luckily we're having an intelligent discussion.

[Dave2002]

Yes. luckily we're having an intelligent discussion.

I would perhaps substitute "diplomatic" for "intelligent". Trying not to be inflammatory or too biased.

[Ein Heldenleben]

Not exactly a straw man. I didn't say Chomsky said that. Precisely, I said in #253 "As Chomsky does say, explanations are not justifications." You took my later comment out of context.

Irrelevant to what we do now which seems, at least to me, rather more urgent. The word I've heard now in several places is of finding an "offramp". What we would call a slip road but in its figurative meaning 'an escape route' for Putin. But that depends on what he would be satisfied with.



My main argument is that this is not the moment for sitting down and analysing 'what the West got wrong'. The main message from the present situation is that the ex-Soviet satellites were right to fear invasion from Putin's Russia and to seek protection; and that NATO is not necessarily the gung-ho America-led outfit ready for any opportunity to go in on the Ruskies with all guns blazing.

I'm not sure that the West has been waiting for Chomsky to come along and explain what they're doing wrongly. If they have learnt from the past, so much the better. With the harrowing scenes that are emerging, intervention to "stop the violence" must be very appealing but the western nations (disappointing though that may be for some) are behaving responsibly.

The likely upshot of all this will be nations queuing up to join NATO.I’ve long had doubts about the wisdom of letting the Baltic states joining as it was bound to get up Russia’s nose eventually. Now as you say we are where we are . By the way didn’t we offer guarantees on Czecho in ‘38 which we then backed out of ? I don’t think the Czechs ever forgave us for it. Reversing ferret is a bit of a UK habit. Happy to have my history corrected of course…

[french frank]

Let's see how "responsibly" they continue to behave, given that the least worst outcome in terms of human lives, is going to be to give Putin at least some of what he wants, and in the process to "look weak", which isn't going to do Biden's Democrats any good at all in the midterm elections in November.

No, sadly. Which would be all the more reason for him to do what he thought the Great American Public wanted America to be doing. He's bound to fall short of hopes.

Sitting down and learning through discussion from past lessons is surely what we, threatened as we are told we are if we get military involved in Ukraine, should be using the current delay for doing? This is seldom what happens, however - the rhetorical "we are where we are" always has to take precedence, and so nothing ever gets resolved.

I would suggest - not being personally in any way privy to what goes on in the higher levels of political, diplomatic and military circles - perhaps exactly what they have done? It might seem to some people that others prefer to use the the current situation to exemplify how far their past analyses, preconceptions or prejudices were correct. Not that I think backseat drivers are always unhelpful in averting accidents :-)

[french frank]

The likely upshot of all this will be nations queuing up to join NATO.

I see Georgia and Moldova have just put in their applications to join the EU. That was actually the sticking point in Ukraine when Yanukovich backed out of doing what the parliament had voted for.

[Ein Heldenleben]

I see Georgia and Moldova have just put in their applications to join the EU. That was actually the sticking point in Ukraine when Yanukovich backed out of doing what the parliament had voted for.

Yes . Putin has badly miscalculated. His attack has spluttered. . The Ukrainians are putting up an extraordinary show of collective bravery led by a charismatic democratic leader . NATO and the EU look more united than in many years . Germany has massively increased defence spending. The oligarchs are seeing their boats and assets seized . Last week I was joking with a friend about putting up Ukrainian refugees in confiscated Eaton Square flats - now , incredibly, it appears to be Govt policy.
However the Ukranian people are suffering badly and there can be no sense of exulting in Putin’s discomfiture whatsoever.

[eighthobstruction]

....watched this yesterday . I thought it was very telling about now and the last decade [gets more interesting as it procedes]....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3bmkyjZwa4