Ukraine

[Ein Heldenleben]

I think it may be more of a case about believing his own propaganda re. the weakness of Ukraine. Mr. Putin probably has a pretty good idea of urban combat as Russia has taken part in several conflicts (either directly or indirectly) in recent years which included that sort of fighting. At the moment the Russian forces have been relatively restrained (for them) and I hope this continues to be the case. In terms of containing the reaction within Russia, I doubt that the very brave demonstrations will bother him particularly. Russia has a large and effective police system. More worrying for him may be the (faint?) possibility that his wealthy and powerful supporters may start to see him as a liability.

The fact that the Russian Central Bank has been sanctioned makes your final sentence pretty much a nailed on certainty. I see bank runs have already started there…

[richardfinegold]

The reason I was so surprised that the invasion went ahead was that I'd been reading for ages beforehand that Russian forces were insufficient and their supply lines inadequate for any kind of prolonged campaign, let alone occupation. I have the idea that Putin was expecting a rapid capitulation which isn't what has happened. At some point he would have needed to negotiate, and he may be thinking that he's unlikely to be able to get into a stronger position than he has now.

Militarily, there are some oddities. For starters, when Stalin began his final assault on the Third Reich, he had 2.6 MILLION men poised on the banks of the Vistula. Now Nazi Germany even at that time was more potent militarily than present day Ukraine, but Hitler also had to contend with the Western Allies on the banks of the Rhine, and the Allies, which had already bombed the Germans into oblivion by then had complete domination of the skies. So trying to invade and occupy a country of 40 million with a force of under 200K seems pretty ambitious in comparison.
Secondly, he apparently has committed less than half his troops. Why? Was he worried about a Ukrainian counter attack that would drive him out and continue on to Moscow? I mean, if Putin is all in, then he should be all in.
Third, we all know Russia has strong cyber capabilities. So why are we getting so many images and communication from the country?
Finally, he is playing the Nuke Card. Is he really that crazy to do a half hearted invasion and then threaten Nuclear War when things dont go his way in 3 days?
So far Russia looks pretty incompetent militarily, not to mention completely off the rails in shaping World Opinion. Their Military might not scare Lichtenstein after this debacle. Even if Putin wins , he is going to be a loser

[Ein Heldenleben]

Militarily, there are some oddities. For starters, when Stalin began his final assault on the Third Reich, he had 2.6 MILLION men poised on the banks of the Vistula. Now Nazi Germany even at that time was more potent militarily than present day Ukraine, but Hitler also had to contend with the Western Allies on the banks of the Rhine, and the Allies, which had already bombed the Germans into oblivion by then had complete domination of the skies. So trying to invade and occupy a country of 40 million with a force of under 200K seems pretty ambitious in comparison.
Secondly, he apparently has committed less than half his troops. Why? Was he worried about a Ukrainian counter attack that would drive him out and continue on to Moscow? I mean, if Putin is all in, then he should be all in.
Third, we all know Russia has strong cyber capabilities. So why are we getting so many images and communication from the country?
Finally, he is playing the Nuke Card. Is he really that crazy to do a half hearted invasion and then threaten Nuclear War when things dont go his way in 3 days?
So far Russia looks pretty incompetent militarily, not to mention completely off the rails in shaping World Opinion. Their Military might not scare Lichtenstein after this debacle. Even if Putin wins , he is going to be a loser

The thing about dictatorships is that the military are frightened to tell the boss that it won’t work. The Wehrmacht knew Barbarossa was a huge gamble but no one dared tell Hitler.

[Historian]

I fear that, even if Putin's forces still carry on their relative 'restraint' (as far as we can tell), there is the potential for a humanitarian catastrophe. Forum members have already pointed out on another thread the huge numbers of internally displaced refugees within Ukraine, as well as the approximately 400,000 (so far) who have crossed into other countries. If Kyiv is now surrounded by the Russians then its population will rapidly start to run out of food (and possibly drinking water). The same may also be true of other towns and cities. This could be enough to force the hand of the Ukrainian leadership.

[Petrushka]

Militarily, there are some oddities. For starters, when Stalin began his final assault on the Third Reich, he had 2.6 MILLION men poised on the banks of the Vistula. Now Nazi Germany even at that time was more potent militarily than present day Ukraine, but Hitler also had to contend with the Western Allies on the banks of the Rhine, and the Allies, which had already bombed the Germans into oblivion by then had complete domination of the skies. So trying to invade and occupy a country of 40 million with a force of under 200K seems pretty ambitious in comparison.
Secondly, he apparently has committed less than half his troops. Why? Was he worried about a Ukrainian counter attack that would drive him out and continue on to Moscow? I mean, if Putin is all in, then he should be all in.
Third, we all know Russia has strong cyber capabilities. So why are we getting so many images and communication from the country?
Finally, he is playing the Nuke Card. Is he really that crazy to do a half hearted invasion and then threaten Nuclear War when things dont go his way in 3 days?
So far Russia looks pretty incompetent militarily, not to mention completely off the rails in shaping World Opinion. Their Military might not scare Lichtenstein after this debacle. Even if Putin wins , he is going to be a loser

A fair bit of this has struck me too so thanks for articulating it! We obviously don't get a complete picture of what goes on but I've been left wondering why the Ukrainian military haven't been demolishing bridges or, as far as is apparent from TV pictures, set up anti-tank traps to block roads in order to slow down the Russian advance as much as possible. Molotov cocktails are all very well but can pose as much of a danger to the civilian wielding it as to the unlucky tank crew recipients.

If you are able to see the TV broadcast of Putin issuing his (stage managed?) nuclear instructions take a look at the generals faces. They are clearly not happy and look most uncomfortable about the whole thing.

[Ein Heldenleben]

Is there any suggestion that Anna Netrebko has been "forced to make a political declaration as a precondition for being allowed to perform"?

Not as far as I can see. She’s such a box office attraction that you might think some Opera houses might try and work round it. Not going to happen I suspect . In the last 24 hours I have been amazed at the US / UK / EU reaction - the increased defence spending in Germany , the sanctioning of the Russian Central bank. This is historic stuff.

[Historian]

A fair bit of this has struck me too so thanks for articulating it! We obviously don't get a complete picture of what goes on but I've been left wondering why the Ukrainian military haven't been demolishing bridges or, as far as is apparent from TV pictures, set up anti-tank traps to block roads in order to slow down the Russian advance as much as possible. Molotov cocktails are all very well but can pose as much of a danger to the civilian wielding it as to the unlucky tank crew recipients..

There have been some demolitions, however the Russians have engineers capable of bridging rivers and other obstacles. Tank traps are of limited use without being defended. The slow progress of the Russians seems to indicate that Ukrainian delaying tactics have been effective. However, there is only so far you can go trying to defend river lines and other natural obstacles in a country the size of Ukraine. The capture of the Antonov airbase to the north-west of Kyiv has enabled Putin's forces to reach Kyiv more quickly than they would otherwise have been able. The Russians are advancing on multiple axes which makes the task of the defenders even more difficult.

[Frances_iom]

...If Kyiv is now surrounded by the Russians then its population will rapidly start to run out of food (and possibly drinking water). The same may also be true of other towns and cities. This could be enough to force the hand of the Ukrainian leadership.

laying siege usually takes more time than I suspect Putin has - destruction of power stations and similar infrastructure (eg large dams) is faster + will set back a country years.
The EU is to give large amount of weapons (rather too late I guess but that is usual for the EU) but delivery still to be sorted?

[Ein Heldenleben]

Militarily, there are some oddities. For starters, when Stalin began his final assault on the Third Reich, he had 2.6 MILLION men poised on the banks of the Vistula. Now Nazi Germany even at that time was more potent militarily than present day Ukraine, but Hitler also had to contend with the Western Allies on the banks of the Rhine, and the Allies, which had already bombed the Germans into oblivion by then had complete domination of the skies. So trying to invade and occupy a country of 40 million with a force of under 200K seems pretty ambitious in comparison.
Secondly, he apparently has committed less than half his troops. Why? Was he worried about a Ukrainian counter attack that would drive him out and continue on to Moscow? I mean, if Putin is all in, then he should be all in.
Third, we all know Russia has strong cyber capabilities. So why are we getting so many images and communication from the country?
Finally, he is playing the Nuke Card. Is he really that crazy to do a half hearted invasion and then threaten Nuclear War when things dont go his way in 3 days?
So far Russia looks pretty incompetent militarily, not to mention completely off the rails in shaping World Opinion. Their Military might not scare Lichtenstein after this debacle. Even if Putin wins , he is going to be a loser

The reason why broadcasters haven’t been affected by cyberattack is because the satellite feeds and broadcast systems they use are (generally ) very well protected against such things. It is however relatively easy to jam them by conventional electronic means or indeed prevent the images being distributed on the internet in the country you control. That is more or less what the Chinese do to the BBC in China

[ardcarp]

One cannot resist recalling the 1930s, where musicians such as Strauss and Furtwangler were in a bad odor for having made music during the Nazi regime, and Toscanini was lionized as an anti Fascist.

Yet another example of how the current situation is re-playing the events of the mid-20th century. I cannot believe there are some who can't understand the scary similarities.

[Serial_Apologist]

Secondly, he apparently has committed less than half his troops. Why? Was he worried about a Ukrainian counter attack that would drive him out and continue on to Moscow? I mean, if Putin is all in, then he should be all in.

Maybe he's keeping the remainder in reserve for future possible actions in the Baltics.

[richardfinegold]

Yet another example of how the current situation is re-playing the events of the mid-20th century. I cannot believe there are some who can't understand the scary similarities.

Putin didn't have to pay a penalty for taking a hunk of Georgia. Analagous to Hitler retaking the Rhineland.
His earlier foray into Crimea was his taking Czechoslavakia with appeasement from NATO
Coopting Belorus into his orbit is his Anschluss.
Now Ukraine is his Poland

And China are his Far Eastern Allies, the new Japanese.
What was Marx line about History Repeating Itself? Is this the tragedy, or the farce?

[RichardB]

What was Marx line about History Repeating Itself? Is this the tragedy, or the farce?

Let's not get carried away by comparisons to Hitler's invasions in the 1930s. Superficial similarities can only serve to distract from much more profound differences. The fact that Russian currency dropped in value by almost a third this morning, with further collapse likely, underlines the facts that (a) the economic structures of individual nations are interconnected in ways that didn't exist 80 years ago and (b) Russia is in an extremely dodgy position economically already, and this is cash draining out of the pockets of the kleptocrats who keep Putin in power. Additionally, Chinese support for Putin shouldn't be overstated - the Chinese delegation at the UNSC abstained on the resolution against the invasion rather than vetoing it, which in the end only Russia itself did.

[kernelbogey]

I believe I've read most, if not all, of this thread. I accept that if Gergiev and others are known supporters of Putin, and refuse to recant publicly, then they deserve shunning, firing etc.

Yesterday I heard the Chiaroscuro Quartet, whose leader, the brillliant Alina Ibragimova is Russian; and not long ago the highly talented pianist Pavel Kolesnikov. It set me thinking whether people would begin to say they, and other Russian artists, should be punished for Putin's actions. No one here has suggested that, as far as I am aware. But some sporting events involving Russian athletes have been cancelled, I believe. There is a fine line between legitimate 'name and shame' actions, such as those above, and random finger-pointing, as happened in 2020 in various parts of the world with antagonism towards Chinese people (over the possible origins of the pandemic).

[RichardB]

It set me thinking whether people would begin to say they, and other Russian artists, should be punished for Putin's actions.

You see this kind of attitude in the Labour MP Chris Bryant's ill-conceived (and indeed rapidly withdrawn) statement that people with joint Russian/British nationality should be made to choose one or the other. Gergiev's friendship with and support for Putin has been well documented for years, and of course it should be that support and not his nationality which is taken into account.