Ukraine

[Historian]

18mins ago on BBC. The version from the Russian side:
""A three-day operation was carried out on the drawdown and organised transfer of the Izyum-Balakliya group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic," the Russian statement said. "In order to prevent damage to the Russian troops, a powerful fire defeat was inflicted on the enemy." That sounds very much like confirmation, with the appropriate spin (as I read it), that Izyum and Balakliia as well as Kupiansk have fallen to the Ukrainians.

Agreed. However, could the BBC have not added something on the lines of "In reality Russia's forces in this region seem to be in headlong retreat." I realise that they need to be objective, but...

[Historian]

Thanks v much . I spent another half an hour between the Times , Telegraph and BBC piecing together the outline of what appears to have happened. Part of the problem is that , unlike WW2 neither side seems to let independent journalists near the front lines. On the other hand there 8s an abundance of social media which , in some ways , may be more reliable. The mix of conventional frontal attack and daring infiltration by the Ukranian Army will be studied for years. All this , it appears, without significant air power. You have to wonder if this was a decoy operation that , somehow , struck gold? Things look stickier further south.

Yes, NATO doctrine would have required air supremacy. Ukraine's diminished Air Force is still participating, heavily supplemented by drones. Anti-radar missiles and HIMARS long-range rocket launch systems appear to have combined to ensure Ukraine can operate some aircraft whereas the Russian Air Force does not operate effectively without taking huge risks.

These operations will, as you state, be pored over in western military academies. Too early to say how far this is opportunistic rather than planned. Extraordinary results either way.

[Ein Heldenleben]

Yes, NATO doctrine would have required air supremacy. Ukraine's diminished Air Force is still participating, heavily supplemented by drones. Anti-radar missiles and HIMARS long-range rocket launch systems appear to have combined to ensure Ukraine can operate some aircraft whereas the Russian Air Force does not operate effectively without taking huge risks.

These operations will, as you state, be pored over in western military academies. Too early to say how far this is opportunistic rather than planned. Extraordinary results either way.

Key learning point - the ability to suppress the other side’s flying capability is more important than having conventional air forces ( and much much cheaper ) ?

[Historian]

Key learning point - the ability to suppress the other side’s flying capability is more important than having conventional air forces ( and much much cheaper ) ?

Yes, very much so. There was a lot of talk of Ukraine receiving new(er) US planes and training - which will no doubt happen in the future - but for now Ukraine is re-writing the rule book. Infantry carrying man-portable surface-to-air missiles in quantity have made conventional airstrikes very difficult to pull off.

[Historian]

(Probably too many posts from me on this memorable day but couldn't resist.)

Those of you who have been following events may remember the prolonged battle for Severodonetsk beginning in May and ending with Ukraine's retreat on 24th June.

I believe that today Ukraine has begun the recapture of Severodonetsk.

[richardfinegold]

I don’t believe the Romans were universally welcomed, nevertheless. Regarding trashing the roads and aqueducts some may have been preserverd - considered useful long after the invaders had gone. The Pont du Gard was retained for a very long while, though eventually only serving as a road bridge, and was maintained as such. Other structures would almost inevitably have crumbled, and the component parts used for other purposes, which is what often happened with structures which started to collapse. Some of the structures were well constructed and would possibly have required at least 20th century explosives to dismantle rapidly.

Have you traveled in Spain? One still sees Roman roads, acqueducts and the like in every use

[richardfinegold]

It is hard to keep up with the speed of the Ukrainian advance in the north.

Kupyansk has fallen. Izyum is under attack (may even have been taken by now). Lyman is under attack. Russian forces are running east leaving vast quantities of tanks, artillery, vehicles, ammunition and supplies, as well as some prisoners. Even the usually well-contollred media in Moscow is starting to panic.

Little or nothing of this has been reported by the BBC whose coverage of Ukraine in recent months has been, IMVVHO, very limited in scope. Some newspapers have been somewhat better at keeping up e.g. Guardian, Telegraph. While I understand that news organisations will lag behind online claims etc. the level of analysis has been very poor. This was the case before the recent 'other news'.

I also find it slightly disappointing at the lack of interest shown on the forum in recent weeks (months), but there are many reasons for this and I am probably being unreasonable. My apologies if so.

I love reading your posts. Keep it up

[Mario]

I also find it slightly disappointing at the lack of interest shown on the forum in recent weeks (months), but there are many reasons for this and I am probably being unreasonable. My apologies if so.

I wondered a few months back whether this was going to be the case (post 916).

I’m hardly in a position to talk, and I’m not preaching, but I do wonder whether we have all already become anesthetised to the war?

I think of the poor, innocent, young soldiers (on both sides) almost daily, but beyond that, I feel pretty powerless.

[richardfinegold]

I think we are all very pleased by the Ukrainian military successes. However one wonders to what extent they can maintain this? The concern is that they may become stretched to thin and be vulnerable to a Russian counterattack. I don’t have any kind of Military background, just a lot reading through the years. However I think we can be cautiously optimistic for a few reasons.
First, apparently Ukraine was under some pressure from Western donors to show that they could mount such offensives in order to keep receiving assistance. Mission accomplished.
Second, are the Russians capable of mounting an effective counter stroke? So far all they have been able to do spread the enemy with overwhelming Artillery and then conquer territory with overwhelming superiority in numbers and siege like operations. They seem stuck in their WWII Mentality. Whereas the Ukrainian strategy is more reminiscent of the Allies strategy in that conflict, or perhaps Israel in The Six Day War. Namely, isolate/obliterate the enemies Command and Control, and bypass strong garrisons
Third, Russian Morale is low. This is not the Great Patriotic War where an evil invader needs to be expelled and Great Sacrifice is required. This time they are the Evil Invader and not willing to die for the ambitions of Tsar Boris.

The limiting factor here may be Energy. The Ukrainians may lose 20% of their own with the Z Nuclear Plant going off line (hopefully not up in smoke). Putin will tighten the screws on Western Europe who will not be in a position to help Ukraine in their current needs. The U.S. throttled their own capacities in deference to Green Energy Policies. The Russians have essentially busted the sanctions against them with the help of Countries such as Turkey.

[Frances_iom]

There was some thoughts that the rapid takeover of parts of Ukraine by Russian forces was considerably aided by Russian sympathisers/collaborators in positions of responsibility in local/regional government - I wonder what now will happen in the recovered territories?

[richardfinegold]

There has been comment here that the BBC has not provided the in depth coverage that one has come to expect, and that they seem consumed with the most recent National Event. The lack of Foreign Reporting has been an issue here for years. In fact, the BBC has been one of the sources that I have had to go to

[Dave2002]

There has been comment here that the BBC has not provided the in depth coverage that one has come to expect, and that they seem consumed with the most recent National Event. The lack of Foreign Reporting has been an issue here for years. In fact, the BBC has been one of the sources that I have had to go to

Several issues here. War coverage is often difficult, and it is perhaps reasonable that relatively little new information has been disseminated. In the UK arguably the Bojo ->Truss affairs and the Most Recent Event have been all consuming - though one often wonders what other things are happening which can easily be hidden from public scrutiny during times like this. We can perhaps hope that evidence of climate change which has been so severe this year might be justifiably explained as a once in a fifty year event - though I fear it will come back to bite us in less than another 50 years. In the meantime Ms Truss will probably announce a totally misguided approach to boost coal mining, oil extraction and fracking - and her appointment of Mr Rees Mogg as a minister with responsibility for some aspects of energy could set the UK back years. Bojo made some stupid mistakes, including getting caught, but although I don’t believe he had a clue about the implementation of new approaches to energy production and use, at least he made blustering noises in the right direction. Re the US I can remember - shock horror- the headlines in California one year being that alligators were leaving the Florida swamps and roving around the freeways. News from more than 1000 miles away was often very hard to come by - only in extreme circumstances.

[french frank]

There was some thoughts that the rapid takeover of parts of Ukraine by Russian forces was considerably aided by Russian sympathisers/collaborators in positions of responsibility in local/regional government - I wonder what now will happen in the recovered territories?

Interesting detail reported by the BBC:

'Shortly [after the retreat], the chief administrator of Russian-controlled parts of the Kharkiv region recommended that its residents evacuate to Russia "to save lives", according to the Russian state-run Tass news agency.'

Presumably not the Ukrainian residents!

[eighthobstruction]

that alligators were leaving the Florida swamps and roving around the freeways. News from more than 1000 miles away was often very hard to come by - only in extreme circumstances.

....constant on MSNBC....slime coming out of Trumps Swamp....

[french frank]

....constant on MSNBC....slime coming out of Trumps Swamp....

Trump's? I don't read much that's pro-Trump there:

Former Trump lawyer wants ‘narcissist’ to be barred from office
Why Trump should be worried about DOJ's probe of his post-election fundraising
Let's hope this ruling against 'Cowboys for Trump' founder [barred from office] has a ripple effect

Or did I misunderstand the cryptic utterance?

Afterthought: Perhaps you meant that it was the swamp Trump wanted to drain?