Originally posted by Dave2002
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Ukraine
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It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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It's been some time since I linked to Prof. Lawrence Freedman's articles on the conflict, so here is the latest one, subtitled 'The Role of History in the Russo-Ukraine War'.
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Originally posted by Historian View PostIt's been some time since I linked to Prof. Lawrence Freedman's articles on the conflict, so here is the latest one, subtitled 'The Role of History in the Russo-Ukraine War'.It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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Originally posted by Historian View PostIt's been some time since I linked to Prof. Lawrence Freedman's articles on the conflict, so here is the latest one, subtitled 'The Role of History in the Russo-Ukraine War'.
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Noam Chomsky on Ukraine & nuclear war:
The war in Ukraine is now in its fourth month, but there is no sign of a ceasefire or resolution anywhere in sight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ruled out a ceasefire or concessions, yet he maintains that only diplomacy can end the war. In the meantime, Russian forces are trying to capture eastern Ukraine, while the policy of the United States is to provide military support to Zelenskyy’s government for as long as it might take to weaken Russia in hope that regime change will come to Moscow.
JR
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Originally posted by Jazzrook View PostNoam Chomsky on Ukraine & nuclear war:
The war in Ukraine is now in its fourth month, but there is no sign of a ceasefire or resolution anywhere in sight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ruled out a ceasefire or concessions, yet he maintains that only diplomacy can end the war. In the meantime, Russian forces are trying to capture eastern Ukraine, while the policy of the United States is to provide military support to Zelenskyy’s government for as long as it might take to weaken Russia in hope that regime change will come to Moscow.
JRI will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.
I am not a number, I am a free man.
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Originally posted by teamsaint View PostThanks JR, a very interesting read, with some well described points, especially on the reactions of the population ( and with reference to the liberal left) , the likely endgame assuming that we avoid disastrous expansion of the war, and the very pressing need to see the conflict in historical context. The ratcheting up of war rhetoric in the west should be confronted head on , IMO.
I'm sure Boris Johnson is "ratcheting up the war rhetoric" in a desperate attempt to save his own skin.
JR
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Professor Lawrence Freedman continues his thoughtful analysis. The first article, 'Paralysis in Moscow' is from 22nd June. The more recent, 'Can Ukraine Win?' is from 3rd July.
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It seems there is little or nothing to say about Ukraine at the moment. I would like to keep this thread running as, if nothing else, a small contribution to reminding people that there is a war going on in Europe and that Putin is counting on Ukraine's western allies getting bored or distracted.
Despite the huge efforts put into their offensives against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk the Russians have made only slow progress, at great cost. We do not, of course, know exactly how much strain has been put on Ukraine's defenders but a Russian 'victory' seems as far away as ever. The Ukrainian army is now starting to destroy Russian ammunition dumps with the America-supplied HIMARS long-range rockets. This will make it much more difficult for Russia to sustain the massive, indiscriminate bombardments which are the main method used in their slow movement forward. In the southern theatre, there has been a slow pushing-back of the Russians towards Kherson. There may soon be a larger Ukrainian offensive in the south: this would give a clearer idea of the relative strength of the two sides.
It would be good to hear from others, whether or not they agree with my analysis, such as it is.
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Originally posted by Historian View PostIt seems there is little or nothing to say about Ukraine at the moment. I would like to keep this thread running as, if nothing else, a small contribution to reminding people that there is a war going on in Europe and that Putin is counting on Ukraine's western allies getting bored or distracted.
Despite the huge efforts put into their offensives against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk the Russians have made only slow progress, at great cost. We do not, of course, know exactly how much strain has been put on Ukraine's defenders but a Russian 'victory' seems as far away as ever. The Ukrainian army is now starting to destroy Russian ammunition dumps with the America-supplied HIMARS long-range rockets. This will make it much more difficult for Russia to sustain the massive, indiscriminate bombardments which are the main method used in their slow movement forward. In the southern theatre, there has been a slow pushing-back of the Russians towards Kherson. There may soon be a larger Ukrainian offensive in the south: this would give a clearer idea of the relative strength of the two sides.
It would be good to hear from others, whether or not they agree with my analysis, such as it is.
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Originally posted by Historian View PostDespite the huge efforts put into their offensives against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk the Russians have made only slow progress, at great cost. We do not, of course, know exactly how much strain has been put on Ukraine's defenders but a Russian 'victory' seems as far away as ever. The Ukrainian army is now starting to destroy Russian ammunition dumps with the America-supplied HIMARS long-range rockets. This will make it much more difficult for Russia to sustain the massive, indiscriminate bombardments which are the main method used in their slow movement forward. In the southern theatre, there has been a slow pushing-back of the Russians towards Kherson. There may soon be a larger Ukrainian offensive in the south: this would give a clearer idea of the relative strength of the two sides.
It would be good to hear from others, whether or not they agree with my analysis, such as it is.It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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Originally posted by oddoneout View PostSomething that concerns me greatly is the situation of the refugees either still hoping to come to the UK or already here.
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Originally posted by french frank View PostI hope you're right, and it's possible that the arrival of the new American weaponry will change the game and start pushing the Russians back. In the meantime there are reports of some possibly not very coordinated Russian attacks elsewhere (which proved a mistaken strategy on their part earlier in the war) plus - unconfirmed, I think - somewhat Stalinesque attempts to squeeze/starve the civilian population by burning fields of crops becoming ready for harvesting.
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Originally posted by Historian View PostIOtherwise they are shelling and mounting small-scale attacks to make Ukrainian counter-attacks more difficult e.g. north of Kherson. They continue to send more or less random missile attacks elsewhere in Ukraine in order to prevent movements of Ukrainian air defences and cause dislocation to supply lines.
Originally posted by Historian View PostAttacks on crops would probably be more about damaging Ukraine's agriculture than starving the population (although with considerable effects elsewhere in the world).It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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