Ukraine

[Serial_Apologist]

It is powerful, and I'm sure - or I'm willing to accept - that the reportage is accurate. But I am wary about such statements as Putin can't win (maybe he can't, but can Ukraine - or "we" - do any better?). I foresee total destruction for Ukraine, and the best chance they have is for Russians, particularly those (mothers of conscripts) whose own experience doesn't match what they're being told, to realise in time that they are being fed falsehoods.

I'm also intrigued as to why Russian separatists should want to be part of, or allied with, a state that behaves like Putin's Russia.

Reinforced by Russian-speakers bombed out of their homes in the Donbas reported this lunchtime as Russian mothers learn of their conscript children's having been made to serve there, as you mention, and being broken by the experience. Something has to give, surely!

[Bryn]

I am loath to link to it but a screed from Covert Action Magazine (an American publication with its origins attributed, by a former MI5 operative. to Russian agents within the CIA) is currently doing the rounds, thanks to Labour expellee, Chris Williamson. It's full of fabrications and half-truths, even citing an old Daily Mail item, which was quickly withdrawn as fabricated and which resulted in the Daily Mail having to pay out libel damages, as evidence that the "U.S.'backed plan to launch chemical weapon attack on Syria and blame it on Assad's regime'" I know of several acquaintances and friends on the 'left' who have been taken in by it.

[RichardB]

I wonder how many people here are aware that, in the midst of its current situation, Ukraine is still expected to continue repayments on its foreign debts of $129 billion, on the basis of loans made with the usual conditions of neoliberal "reforms" in pensions, the energy sector, agriculture, state employment, privatisation and political governance (much of which would of course also result in increased profits to be made in Ukraine by foreign-based businesses). This issue has turned up in the news now and again in the last three months, but in general perhaps it doesn't feed into the narrative that Western powers are giving Ukraine all the help they can short of arming Ukraine to the teeth and/or entering the war themselves. Isn't this further evidence of the West's interest in prolonging the conflict over resolving it? Once more, this is a textbook case of the "shock doctrine" in action. (Having said that, let me also point out that in my opinion Putin's invasion of and continued attacks on Ukraine constitutes an inhuman, criminal and ill-advised act for which there is no reasonable excuse.)

[Frances_iom]

....
I'm also intrigued as to why Russian separatists should want to be part of, or allied with, a state that behaves like Putin's Russia.

because they are mostly not Ukrainian but Russian with the usual distrust of those country bumkins in the west who are agin us - their information comes from Putin's Russia - they are those who arrived to staff the post WW2 industries and their children etc - a friend who visited the industrialised area of the Donbas in the late 60s said it was similar to Sheffield of that period.

[french frank]

because they are mostly not Ukrainian but Russian

This is what Wikipedia says:

"According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 58% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 56.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively. In the present day, the Donbas is a predominately Russophone region. According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast. The proportion of native Russian-speakers is higher than ethnic Russians because some ethnic Ukrainians and other nationalities also indicate Russian as their mother tongue."

This 2000 article in the Guardian makes uncomfortable reading in that it supports Putin's rhetoric very clearly, but read into it and that picture is one-sided. I draw attention to it to be as 'fair' as possible to Putin, but obviously, it still doesn't justify what he's done.

[Joseph K]

I am loath to link to it but a screed from Covert Action Magazine (an American publication with its origins attributed, by a former MI5 operative. to Russian agents within the CIA) is currently doing the rounds, thanks to Labour expellee, Chris Williamson. It's full of fabrications and half-truths, even citing an old Daily Mail item, which was quickly withdrawn as fabricated and which resulted in the Daily Mail having to pay out libel damages, as evidence that the "U.S.'backed plan to launch chemical weapon attack on Syria and blame it on Assad's regime'" I know of several acquaintances and friends on the 'left' who have been taken in by it.

I've been following Chris Williamson on Facebook for a while and have been taken aback (not in) by much of his more recent positions. I think some on the left view things as East - good, West - bad (some still regard China as a socialist country for example!) at the expense of a principled anti-war stance.

[Frances_iom]

This is what Wikipedia says:

"According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 58% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 56.9% of Donetsk Oblast. ....

But things have probably changed since then - probably with both sides pulling apart across the zone of contention as those on the Russian controlled side making life difficult for Kiev supporters and vice versa, with Russia acknowledging explicit intervention and support from 2014 onwards.

[Dave2002]

More speculation -

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/world/europe/putin-family-wealth-sanctions.html

I liked the bit about someone with apparently a degree in Oriental Studies from St Petersburg University, and an interest in ice skating and rock and roll dancing later
"acquiring" a strong interest in physics, maths and space travel - as well as somehow managing to be associated with considerable wealth - $Bns not $Mns.

[french frank]

But things have probably changed since then - probably with both sides pulling apart across the zone of contention as those on the Russian controlled side making life difficult for Kiev supporters and vice versa, with Russia acknowledging explicit intervention and support from 2014 onwards.

I was responding to your statement that the inhabitants of Donbas are: 'mostly not Ukrainian but Russian'. I'm not sure why the situation would have changed dramatically since the census because most of the ethnic Russian population were settled there by Stalin. I have, however, read stories of ethnic Ukrainians just wanting an end to the war; life under Russian rule being better than being killed or bombed out of your home. The conflicts would certainly have increased as a result of Russian support for the separatists - with the consequent intervention of the Ukrainian government. The use of the Azov Battalion added futher ammunition to Putin's claim that, essentially, Ukraine is a Nazi state which has to be cleansed.

[Serial_Apologist]

I was responding to your statement that the inhabitants of Donbas are: 'mostly not Ukrainian but Russian'. I'm not sure why the situation would have changed dramatically since the census because most of the ethnic Russian population were settled there by Stalin. I have, however, read stories of ethnic Ukrainians just wanting an end to the war; life under Russian rule being better than being killed or bombed out of your home. The conflicts would certainly have increased as a result of Russian support for the separatists - with the consequent intervention of the Ukrainian government. The use of the Azov Battalion added futher ammunition to Putin's claim that, essentially, Ukraine is a Nazi state which has to be cleansed.

That last point was re-iterated by the Russian ambassador to the UK when interviewed by Clive Mine on Sunday Morning earlier today, and was visibly squirming on his Baroque chair when presented with some of the questions, and clumsily trying to put Clive Mine off by addressing him as "Cliff"! Mine made a refreshing change from the awful Sophie Raworth as today's host, by the way - she is back next week, unfortunately - but I had to question his presenting Kelin with a tiny selection of closed circuit camera shots alleging a single killing, which could just as easily have been claimed to be fake. Out of all the time BBC reporters have been bravely covering the war, is this the best they could come up with?

[Frances_iom]

...The use of the Azov Battalion added futher ammunition to Putin's claim that, essentially, Ukraine is a Nazi state which has to be cleansed.

Might I remind you of the compulsory Russification that took place pre the breakup of the Soviet Union, disliked by the native population - there were problems in Estonia with its large Russian speaking minority (but not as large I think as in Donbas) tho possibly Estonian nationalism has been somewhat tempered with a more gradualism than that displayed by the Ukrainian Nationalists(check out recent R4 programme on 'love bombing the Russian speakers" by moving music festivals away from the capital) , but when I was in Tallin in I think 2005 there were still significant signs of Russian speakers.

[french frank]

That last point was re-iterated by the Russian ambassador to the UK

I read the BBC write-up of the interview and thought the BBC could surely have done better than that.Kelin essentially echoing Lavrov's version of the truth: the war crimes had been staged - fake news; and Russia was successfully de-Nazifying Ukraine. Liz Truss inexperienced and useless (jury out on that! ) - but it was another of Lavrov's lines earlier.

As for:Russia won't use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, says ambassador to UK. Be afraid …

It made me wonder more generally about any strong allegiances, whether to Putin in Russia, to Johnson in the UK, to Trump in the US or anything else. People invest so much of themselves, their positions, their egos, in their beliefs that they can't afford to let go of them.

[french frank]

Might I remind you of the compulsory Russification that took place pre the breakup of the Soviet Union

1. The census was taken in 2001: Ukraine declared its independence in 1991.

2. 'Russification' doesn't change people's ethnicity.

3. Most Ukrainians also speak Russian, and in Donbas it is the majority language because Ukrainians have Russian as their first language. They remain Ukrainian.

[Frances_iom]

1. The census was taken in 2001: Ukraine declared its independence in 1991.

2. 'Russification' doesn't change people's ethnicity.

3. Most Ukrainians also speak Russian, and in Donbas it is the majority language because Ukrainians have Russian as their first language. They remain Ukrainian.

that wasn't my argument - it was that many native Ukrainians felt their culture was under threat by forced adoption of the culture (+ language) of the adjacent imperial state (which is what I meant by Russification) and when in a position to protest this, did so in strong measure - whereas in the West any push back by the considerably fewer ethnic Russians was small but the larger ethnic Russian population in the East could be provoked by various means (eg propaganda) to feel that their very existence was threatened - I saw a report in the Times (I think on Tues) that the one of the RMT officials was on record as describing the leader of the breakaway region as charismatic.

[french frank]

that wasn't my argument - it was that many native Ukrainians felt their culture was under threat by forced adoption of the culture (+ language) of the adjacent imperial state (which is what I meant by Russification)

Yes, and the 'adjacent imperial state' was the pre-1918 Russian Empire, the Valuevsky circular of the 1860s having banned the use of the Ukrainian languages for most purposes. I think the immediate post-Revolution era saw some relaxation in this, but it was stopped in Stalin's day. The 'Russification' of the Soviet Republic of Ukraine in the 1930s meant that the use of the Russian language is now the norm for the existing older generation of Ukrainians. With Stalin's settlement of Russians in Donbas, there could hardly NOT be conflict between the two cultural entities.

the larger ethnic Russian population in the East could be provoked by various means (eg propaganda) to feel that their very existence was threatened

It seems almost inevitable that there should be 'persecutions', mistreatment and discrimination carried out by both sides of the ethnic divide.

I saw a report in the Times (I think on Tues) that the one of the RMT officials was on record as describing the leader of the breakaway region as charismatic.

Eddie Dempsey. I don't think I want to pursue this line of argument - the reports are altogether too partisan.