Ukraine

[Cockney Sparrow]

Various speculations about Putin's vulnerability to being unseated are advanced - it really is an impossible thing to come to any conclusion about - the most I have seen is the view that, when it happens, Russian dictators are toppled in circumstances few would predict. Lots of comment, though, that Putin is "finished" - but that could be a matter of time (and all things come to an end,eventually, anyway).

I found this Radio 4 programme a rather depressing listen. It does, however, put what is known into focus:

Analysis - The Dictator's Survival Guide

How do dictators and authoritarians stay in power? James Tilley, a professor of politics at Oxford University, finds out what's in the dictators' survival guide. How do they control ordinary people and stop revolts? How do they stop rivals from taking over? And how do they manipulate apparently democratic procedures like elections - such as the notoriously fraudulent 2004 vote in Ukraine - to secure their rule? This is another chance to hear a programme, originally broadcast in 2018, that has acquired new relevance.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09sn5f8

[french frank]

Maybe, though many people in Moscow are probably pretty much unaware of what's going on.

With the return of the Russian dead, their families will also be aware, but it's the suppression of all information which doesn't come from state sources that prevents news spreading.

Prices in shops have gone up around 50% very recently - and some there might wonder why!

Doesn't it just show them that Putin is right to hit back at "the West" which is responsible for all the sanctions, shortages and hardship? Putin has described it as a 'declaration of war'. On the condition of the Russian army, it has been pointed out that volunteers from Syria and elsewhere will probably be 'less squeamish' than Russian soldiers in their treatment of Ukrainians.

If Putin manages to get control of Mariupol through a Ukrainian surrender or defeat, it will be both a strategic and propaganda coup for Putin. Strategic because Russia will have control of the entire Sea of Azov coastline from the Russian border to Crimea; and propaganda because Russia will have 'liberated' Ukraine of the 'Nazi' Azov Battalion. I wonder if it would satisfy him?

[Dave2002]

Various speculations about Putin's vulnerability to being unseated are advanced - it really is an impossible thing to come to any conclusion about - the most I have seen is the view that, when it happens, Russian dictators are toppled in circumstances few would predict. Lots of comment, though, that Putin is "finished" - but that could be a matter of time (and all things come to an end,eventually, anyway).

I found this Radio 4 programme a rather depressing listen. It does, however, put what is known into focus:

Analysis - The Dictator's Survival Guide

How do dictators and authoritarians stay in power? James Tilley, a professor of politics at Oxford University, finds out what's in the dictators' survival guide. How do they control ordinary people and stop revolts? How do they stop rivals from taking over? And how do they manipulate apparently democratic procedures like elections - such as the notoriously fraudulent 2004 vote in Ukraine - to secure their rule? This is another chance to hear a programme, originally broadcast in 2018, that has acquired new relevance.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09sn5f8

Very good programme. Thanks for posting the link.

[Dave2002]

Doesn't it just show them that Putin is right to hit back at "the West" which is responsible for all the sanctions, shortages and hardship?

Some will see things that way, but others may be "more" perceptive.

However, the "survival guide" programme - post 676 - does suggest that the fragmentation of opposition by disinformation may well be effective for some of the dictators.

We are starting to see similar things here - people whinging about the rising costs of petrol and heating oil - but at least they are still alive and have somewhere to live which is more than can be said for rather a large number of others.

[Frances_iom]

There is an interesting 2page article in the current issue of The Tablet by Christopher Granville - his concluding paragraphs are
"however, a different and more active response is emerging. It was described to me by a friend in Moscow as a reaction not only or mainly to the more intense version of Western financial and economic sanctions - but rather to the new pariah status of Russia and Russians: Western companies upping sticks, sports bans extending even to the Paralympics, Facebook's removal of protections from hate speech. My friend concluded that all this has mobilised the country's educated, managerial and entrepreneurial classes, especially those in their thirties and forties - most of them very Western in their values - to shift from guilt, shock and horror to a determination to take their country forward at any cost. In this new chapter in post-Soviet Russia's lot of having to fend for itself, adversity will be met with experience and knowledge entirely lacking in the 1990s. Here, in contrast to Putin's phoney evocations of the campaign in Ukraine, rings out the true spirit of the Great Patriotic War. This spirit will ebb and flow with a wide possible range of developments - from gruesome military quagmire in Ukraine to a face-saving peace deal, and from Putin's increasingly naked dictatorship ending abruptly to his leadership dragging on for several more years. This newfound determination will be sorely tested by deepening economic troubles, which, as happened 30 years ago in Russia, will force structural change. For example, if the great concentrations of private ("oligarch") wealth are invested anywhere at all from now on, the lion's share of such investment will flow into the domestic economy.

Any kind of romanticism about all this would be completely out of place. The very same isolation from Russia's European roots that fires up this unpoliticised national-rally spirit also creates massive obstacles to progress. But I don't believe this spirit will be easily extinguished: and a steady engine can prevail in the end against variable headwinds. "

Thus some hope but probably not short term.

[Serial_Apologist]

There is an interesting 2page article in the current issue of The Tablet by Christopher Granville - his concluding paragraphs are
"however, a different and more active response is emerging. It was described to me by a friend in Moscow as a reaction not only or mainly to the more intense version of Western financial and economic sanctions - but rather to the new pariah status of Russia and Russians: Western companies upping sticks, sports bans extending even to the Paralympics, Facebook's removal of protections from hate speech. My friend concluded that all this has mobilised the country's educated, managerial and entrepreneurial classes, especially those in their thirties and forties - most of them very Western in their values - to shift from guilt, shock and horror to a determination to take their country forward at any cost. In this new chapter in post-Soviet Russia's lot of having to fend for itself, adversity will be met with experience and knowledge entirely lacking in the 1990s. Here, in contrast to Putin's phoney evocations of the campaign in Ukraine, rings out the true spirit of the Great Patriotic War. This spirit will ebb and flow with a wide possible range of developments - from gruesome military quagmire in Ukraine to a face-saving peace deal, and from Putin's increasingly naked dictatorship ending abruptly to his leadership dragging on for several more years. This newfound determination will be sorely tested by deepening economic troubles, which, as happened 30 years ago in Russia, will force structural change. For example, if the great concentrations of private ("oligarch") wealth are invested anywhere at all from now on, the lion's share of such investment will flow into the domestic economy.

Any kind of romanticism about all this would be completely out of place. The very same isolation from Russia's European roots that fires up this unpoliticised national-rally spirit also creates massive obstacles to progress. But I don't believe this spirit will be easily extinguished: and a steady engine can prevail in the end against variable headwinds. "

Thus some hope but probably not short term.

If plausible, that would indicate a very different philosophy from that of the West, where globalisation has meant foreign investment regardless of consequences at home if the returns are sufficient to and supported by investing, in and from its own middle class. Based on its inbuilt geographical advantages, the US could have followed an imperative of self-sufficiency it was in a better position to do than Russia. But other political factors came into play that would determine justifying the Great America missionary quest, rationalising it as spreading its homespun "civilised values". For reasons of geographical disadvantage, Russian self-sufficiency, two fingers up at the rest of the world, would have less chance of sustaining its own population, other than through a reversion to its own Middle Ages - some parts in which it never really escaped.

[Dave2002]

With countries now enforcing no fly areas - and I don't just mean military air corridors - but civilian air routes, it seems to me that many aircraft travelling to distant locations must be taking substantially longer routes to avoid areas like Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Getting to China or Australia by some routes must surely now be by longer routes. Flights to the US, much of Europe, Africa and South America will largely be unaffected, but the land mass of Russia blocks off a substantial part of many routes to the east and the southern hemisphere.

How has travel to those places been affected?

[Historian]

The ground war now seems to be entering a third phase. The relative stalemate is breaking up with Russian forces being forced back/pulling back around Kyiv in the north, as well as coming under increasing pressure around Chernihiv. Ukraine is also carrying out effective counterattacks towards Kherson in the south west, meaning that Odesa is no longer under threat from a ground offensive.

Russian efforts are being focused on the south and east, with the fall of Mariupol edging closer and advances being made in the Luhansk area. This may mean that Putin is able to achieve some of his more limited aims, having abandoned his more grandiose schemes.

I realise that the above may sound like a cold, rather detached, view, of the effects of the war on Ukraine's people and environment. Like everyone else (hopefully) I am still following closely the reporting of what this means for the people on the ground. However, the course of the ground war cannot fail to have an effect on the ongoing negotiations or the war's eventual outcome.

[I feel that the BBC's online coverage of the operations, as distinct from the effects on people, is limited and somewhat behind the times.]

Dave, I think your analysis of the effects on air-travel is correct, but have no information or personal experience to add to what you said,

[HighlandDougie]

With countries now enforcing no fly areas - and I don't just mean military air corridors - but civilian air routes, it seems to me that many aircraft travelling to distant locations must be taking substantially longer routes to avoid areas like Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Getting to China or Australia by some routes must surely now be by longer routes. Flights to the US, much of Europe, Africa and South America will largely be unaffected, but the land mass of Russia blocks off a substantial part of many routes to the east and the southern hemisphere.

How has travel to those places been affected?

As I remember the (daytime) flight from Tokyo to London flying for a very long time over Russia, I've compared the flight time then (about 11 hours) with the current time - just under 16 hours - so, yes, major effect. Cathay Pacific has rerouted its Hong Kong - New York direct flights to cross Central Asia, Europe and the Atlantic rather than cross the Pacific (which involved a significant amount of time in Russian airspace). It will now be the longest non-stop flight in the world (just under 10,500 miles). So no more gazing out the window and seeing the twinkling lights of Irkutsk, Omsk or wherever flying back from HK, making the flight even more tedious than before.

[ardcarp]

I may have been in the hinterland between awake and asleep, but I thought I heard mention, on the R4 news, of the Pope visiting Kiev? Put me right, someone.

[french frank]

I may have been in the hinterland between awake and asleep, but I thought I heard mention, on the R4 news, of the Pope visiting Kiev? Put me right, someone.

A visit is 'on the table':

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/02/pope-francis-plans-visit-kyiv-invitation-ukraine-president

[Dave2002]

Here is a view from Estonia - via Time magazine. https://time.com/6163270/estonia-pri...las-interview/

There are also some interesting links to the UK - such as https://time.com/6162864/evgeny-chic...erview-russia/

Not sure if everyone will be able to read that.

[Mario]

I may have been in the hinterland between awake and asleep, but I thought I heard mention, on the R4 news, of the Pope visiting Kiev? Put me right, someone.

I believe he does have plans for visiting Kiev, but during this weekend, he is with us.

https://www.timesofmalta.com

Mario

[Globaltruth]

I may have been in the hinterland between awake and asleep, but I thought I heard mention, on the R4 news, of the Pope visiting Kiev? Put me right, someone.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy said it is “high time” that outdated Soviet spellings of the east-European country's cities are scrapped and the “correct Ukrainian form” is adopted. Published on Mar 31, 2022 11:04 PM

The correct Ukrainian form is KYIV

[Frances_iom]

The correct Ukrainian form is KYIV

maybe if Zelenksy wishes to de-Russify he can do an Ataturk and make Ukranian in a western script - after all Polish is written in a latin script tho a Slavic language.
But until then my 1990 Railway atlas of the whole USSR (the last edition ever produced!) has been useful to place the various towns mentioned in the news (cost 2Rb 55Kop).