Ukraine

[eighthobstruction]

The view seemed to be that he was as pro-war as any of them. Since then the signs have been puzzlingly contradictory - now questioning the whole basis of the war (not necessarily the war itself but the stated basis for it), now questioning the Russian military leadership. But what was the 'mutiny' supposed to achieve, given he gave up on it so quickly? And what does one make of reports that Wagner's arrival in Rostov was greeted with enthusiasm? Anti-Putinist or ultra nationalist?

....well the W group were victorious and heroic, winners,,,,How about it was just planned ruse between them all Putin/Prog'/ Lukashenko to find reasons to end war....I think that column yesterday made me think of the Road to Bassra....layers upon layers....

[french frank]

But is there any reason why Prigozhin would want to attack Ukraine at all, except under orders from Putin which he seems not to be much concerned with any more? He seems to be positioning himself to take over from Putin at some point, and promising the rest of the Russian ruling elite that he was going to call off the invasion might tip the scales in his favour. Not that it would necessarily be good for the rest of the world to have a thug like that in charge, but there's a thug in charge now as well.

The view seemed to be that he was as pro-war as any of them. Since then the signs have been puzzlingly contradictory - now questioning the whole basis of the war (not necessarily the war itself but the stated basis for it), now questioning the Russian military leadership. But what was the 'mutiny' supposed to achieve, given he gave up on it so quickly? And what does one make of reports that Wagner's arrival in Rostov was greeted with enthusiasm? Anti-Putinist or ultra nationalist?

[RichardB]

Prigozhin is in Belarus where his mercenaries might follow him to launch a possible attack on Ukraine from there.

But is there any reason why Prigozhin would want to attack Ukraine at all, except under orders from Putin which he seems not to be much concerned with any more? He seems to be positioning himself to take over from Putin at some point, and promising the rest of the Russian ruling elite that he was going to call off the invasion might tip the scales in his favour. Not that it would necessarily be good for the rest of the world to have a thug like that in charge, but there's a thug in charge now as well.

[LHC]

What has Progozhin achieved by his mutiny? The aim was supposedly to remove Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov from their posts due to their alleged incompetence yet they are still there. Prigozhin is in Belarus where his mercenaries might follow him to launch a possible attack on Ukraine from there. However, Lukashenko has so far shied away from getting involved in Putin's war so with Putin weakened and struggling to make headway in Ukraine it makes little sense for him to do so now.

As for Prigozhin, he is a marked man, now or in the future, despite the guarantees given for him and his men's safety as part of the agreement. Mexico City wasn't far enough away for Trotsky to escape the wrath of Stalin in 1940.

There are more questions than answers about yesterday's events.

Alexander Litvinenko and Sergei Skripal provide more direct examples of Putin's willingness to carry out assassination attempts on his opponents abroad. If I was Prigozhin, I'd be very wary about accepting any invitations to tea from current and former GRU or FSB agents.

[Petrushka]

What has Progozhin achieved by his mutiny? The aim was supposedly to remove Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov from their posts due to their alleged incompetence yet they are still there. Prigozhin is in Belarus where his mercenaries might follow him to launch a possible attack on Ukraine from there. However, Lukashenko has so far shied away from getting involved in Putin's war so with Putin weakened and struggling to make headway in Ukraine it makes little sense for him to do so now.

As for Prigozhin, he is a marked man, now or in the future, despite the guarantees given for him and his men's safety as part of the agreement. Mexico City wasn't far enough away for Trotsky to escape the wrath of Stalin in 1940.

There are more questions than answers about yesterday's events.

[Petrushka]

And even assuming Prigozhin prudently decides to settle in Belarus, what happens to Wagner - incorporated into the Russian army, as Putin wanted in the first place?

Comment I've seen so far seems to suggest that major instability in Russia is the likely outcome.

[french frank]

Whatever deal has been done I doubt if Putin can be trusted to keep his side of it. Prigozhin has seriously humiliated him and Putin will want his revenge.

And even assuming Prigozhin prudently decides to settle in Belarus, what happens to Wagner - incorporated into the Russian army, as Putin wanted in the first place?

[Petrushka]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-to-intercept

Prigozhin calls off march on Moscow

Whatever deal has been done I doubt if Putin can be trusted to keep his side of it. Prigozhin has seriously humiliated him and Putin will want his revenge. On the other hand, Prigozhin has made himself look a fool by failing to follow through on his threat at the last moment. However, the key takeaway from these events is that Putin has suffered severe reputational damage and I'd say his days are numbered.

[french frank]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/wagner-troops-may-reach-moscow-by-evening-as-kremlin-hurries-to-intercept

Prigozhin calls off march on Moscow

[Dave2002]

Is Putin now in real trouble? And thus are we?

Fascinating developments ...

Is Putin now in real trouble? And thus are we?

[Petrushka]

Hot off the press - well, in my inbox - Sir Lawrence's thoughts:

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhi...m_medium=email

Sir Lawrence is in his element here with a fascinating and insightful post. Yet again Russian history carries on repeating itself like no other country.

[HighlandDougie]

Hot off the press - well, in my inbox - Sir Lawrence's thoughts:

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins-mutiny?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[french frank]

We do, indeed, live in interesting times. Interesting, and very dangerous.

There is, perhaps, a possibility that Prigozhin hopes to recruit a disaffected military to his side for a coup which places him in power. But I believe he has recently stated that there is no 'Nazi regime' in Ukraine - difficult for Putin to swallow, even if Prigozhin were to take the line that Putin has just been misled by the military. It pulls the rug under the main rationale for the 'special military operation': a new Patriotic War.