Ukraine

[antongould]

https://magazine.newstatesman.com/2023/08/16/russias-war-on-the-future/content.html

[french frank]

In HD's absence, here is the latest from Prof. Sir Lawrence Freedman on the Global South, BRICS and the G20: the changing international system and the Ukraine War.

Very interesting overview on what LF describes as 'the changing character of international relations'; and interesting that there appears to be global support for 'staying in line with the UN Charter and respecting national sovereignty, territorial integrity and international humanitarian law'. The more intransigent Putin remains, the more he will lose the support altogether of those who believed that a negotiated settlement was a realistic aim in the shorter term.

[Historian]

In HD's absence, here is the latest from Prof. Sir Lawrence Freedman on the Global South, BRICS and the G20: the changing international system and the Ukraine War.

[Frances_iom]

my own theory is that Russia will slowly destroy enough infrastructure that Ukraine cannot rebuild - the dam was blown taking with it irrigation that will take years to rebuild + significant power loss, grain silos + ports are slowly being destroyed, the electricity supply network is significantly weakened, explosives known to be placed within the large nuclear site which will probably not cause a meltdown but destroy in one blast some 15% of the power generation which will take major expense to even safely demolish - Russia doesn't need to control it merely needs to destroy the state - the West has consistently misunderstood Putin - he doesn't need Ukraine's resources but cannot tolerate a western European state with such deep tentacles into Russian society.

[Historian]

I think the BBC coverage, in the same way as many other reports, does not show a good understanding of what Ukraine is trying to do. In the face of determined and effective Russian resistance it is unrealistic to expect the sort of territorial advances we saw around Kharkiv last year. Instead Ukraine is grinding down the Russian forces, attacking them in several areas to increase the pressure. This will take time and results will be slow to appear.

Russia had has time to develop an impressive-looking system of fortifications, with very deep minefields. In the absence of air superiority Ukraine has little choice but to conduct a series of slow, cautious advances by infantry followed up by engineers. Meanwhile Ukrainian artillery and drones have been destroying Russia's artillery, as well as inflicting heavy casualties on Russian troops and armoured vehicles. The long-running campaign against Russian logistics, as well as command and communications, is also making Russia's defensive task more and more difficult.

I would disagree that Ukraine's forces are overstretched. On the contrary, significant numbers of well-equipped and trained forces have not yet been committed to the front line. I doubt that Russia has much in the way of meaningful reserves available to combat further Ukrainian successes. Russia's attempted advances in the north-eastern theatre have achieved only minor success. The Russian air force has only a limited effectiveness on the battlefield, as distinct from killing innocent civilians in war crimes. Their naval forces are under increasing threat in the Black Sea, a point made clear by the recent successful naval drone strike on a Russian warship near Novorossiysk, which involved a voyage of more than 750 km. Their armoured forces are decreasing in both quantity and quality. As mentioned above, Russian artillery superiority - which is crucial to the successful defence of their positions - is being systematically eroded.

Russia is still losing. I believe that Ukraine is still winning, albeit slowly.

[french frank]

"Putin knows that a Republican 'America First' victory is likely"

Not from what I read of the surveys of the USA's electorate as a whole.

I admit to being somewhat surprised, but one survey suggested that if he was convicted he would lose almost half his current Republican support. And then there are the Independents who incline towards voting Republican. Trump is not a winner among them.

[Dave2002]

Both sides have set impossible goals. Russia cannot conquer Ukraine, and Ukraine cannot regain all of its territories. The most realistic solution is a Korean Style cease fire, and then hope for regime change in Russia

I don't think we can really bet on either side. I doubt that a cease fire as you suggest would be acceptable to Ukraine. It is possible that an analogy with Korea won't work, but perhaps Afghanistan might provide a different analogy with a very determined opposition to invasion - though in that case the outcomes to date have not proved to be desirable.

[Bryn]

As elections approach people get more pragmatic. The prospect of another 4 years of Biden and Kamala Harris, and possibly Harris as president if Biden's health deteriorates significantly, will sharpen people's minds.

As will the prospect of another day of Trump as President in office, for those with minds to sharpen.

[FRJames]

"Putin knows that a Republican 'America First' victory is likely"

Not from what I read of the surveys of the USA's electorate as a whole.

As elections approach people get more pragmatic. The prospect of another 4 years of Biden and Kamala Harris, and possibly Harris as president if Biden's health deteriorates significantly, will sharpen people's minds.

[Bryn]

"Putin knows that a Republican 'America First' victory is likely"

Not from what I read of the surveys of the USA's electorate as a whole.

[FRJames]

That would be an undisputed win for Putin, wouldn't it? He's now extending the target group for conscription - again. Does that mean he's lost so many troops he's forced to put more boots on the ground just in order to continue with a credible 'operation'? Or that he feels now is the moment to increase the pressure to deliver something he can declare a victory?

Yes, a political agreement based on current territorial boundaries would be a win for Putin - or at least the best win he can probably get. Originally, of course, he expected to take control of the whole country in a matter of days.
I suspect Putin's strategy is simply to defend the territory which has already been gained - something they seem to be doing quite effectively. I don't think they have the capability to undertake a major offensive, but they can defend. He is increasing military pressure on Ukraine and the west by simply defending what he has gained.
As the BBC article mentions, the American presidential election is just over a year away. Putin knows that a Republican 'America First' victory is likely and all he has to do is hang on for that and the US will drop Ukraine very quickly. Then we will see what Europe is made of - not much I suspect.
Whatever happens, Putin will effectively manufacture a victory from this conflict for home consumption. Imagine the scenes when the returning Russian troops take their victory march through red square.

[richardfinegold]

A rather bleak assessment of the current Ukrainian offensive from the BBC's Frank Gardener:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66383377

I don't think anyone expected Ukraine to make the sort of gains that they made in their earlier offensives as the Russians have had a lot of time to prepare defensive lines in what they now consider to be their territory. I suspect the allies may now be looking at this situation and thinking - what else can we do? Given that the territorial situation looks like it isn't going to change significantly, Is this the point where the allies are going to start pushing Ukraine on a compromise settlement? One good thing is that Ukraine does still have control of a large part of it's Black Sea border.

Both sides have set impossible goals. Russia cannot conquer Ukraine, and Ukraine cannot regain all of its territories. The most realistic solution is a Korean Style cease fire, and then hope for regime change in Russia

[eighthobstruction]

....first hand soldier experience of "not being able to move forward"....due Russian well dug in and wide killing zones, make it a forlorn task I'm afraid - given Ukrainians being stretched thin (which was always likely)....

[french frank]

Given that the territorial situation looks like it isn't going to change significantly, Is this the point where the allies are going to start pushing Ukraine on a compromise settlement?

That would be an undisputed win for Putin, wouldn't it? He's now extending the target group for conscription - again. Does that mean he's lost so many troops he's forced to put more boots on the ground just in order to continue with a credible 'operation'? Or that he feels now is the moment to increase the pressure to deliver something he can declare a victory?

[FRJames]

A rather bleak assessment of the current Ukrainian offensive from the BBC's Frank Gardener:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66383377

I don't think anyone expected Ukraine to make the sort of gains that they made in their earlier offensives as the Russians have had a lot of time to prepare defensive lines in what they now consider to be their territory. I suspect the allies may now be looking at this situation and thinking - what else can we do? Given that the territorial situation looks like it isn't going to change significantly, Is this the point where the allies are going to start pushing Ukraine on a compromise settlement? One good thing is that Ukraine does still have control of a large part of it's Black Sea border.