Ukraine

[Historian]

What I understood from what I heard the Ukrainian military is supposed to have said about this, the occupation would be expected to draw scarce Russian personnel back across the border to deal with it, thereby taking some pressure off the Donbas. I have to say it does appear to be a bad mistake to think this way - the Russians will deal with the invaders, probably very harshly, and then it will be back to square one.

I agree that it is, to some extent, a risk. However, it is not possible to avoid taking risks in the position in which Ukraine finds itself. Ukraine might be hoping to reduce the pressure elsewhere but I don't think that will actually happen to any great extent.

Russia is currently making heavy weather in tackling the Ukraine advance which has not attempted to go beyond the limits of Ukrainian artillery support. I imagine that Ukraine will have made very careful calculations about the benefits from attacking the Kursk region and will do their best to avoid the losses you fear.

[Historian]

Have we heard yet what thoughts there are on Ukraine's incursion into Russia? I'm not sure that I understand why so much effort is being put into that - is it simply that the Russian defences inside Ukraine are proving just too hard to break down?

Currently Ukraine's land forces are on the defensive, with this one recent exception. Last summer's major offensive was a failure, indeed Russia has recaptured much of the limited gains made then. Since then, Ukraine has concentrated on wearing down Russian forces with considerable success e.g. the heavy losses of Russian artillery pieces. Russia has still been able to advance in one or two areas but only relatively slowly and at considerable cost. The renewed incursion towards Kharkiv did not get very far and the Russians are slowly being expelled.

Ukraine may be planning a large offensive this year but this attack toward Kursk is not it. They can't afford another failure like last year when, as you mention, Russian defences proved too strong.

[french frank]

Where borders are, or have been historically, fluid then there will be blurring of the demarcation through names, language etc?

It would be a bit of a dilemma for Ukraine if people in the newly controlled area would prefer to be in Ukraine. What about the people in Donbas who want to be in Russia? Not that I think this has necessarily entered the consciousness of Kyiv.

[oddoneout]

Several ideas on this, trying to see the situation from Ukraine's point of view:

1. The publicity which this has received within in Russia sends a message to Russians that Putin is not winning his 'quick' war
2. The Ukrainian successes will divert Russian troops from elsewhere (no indication that mighty Russia has unlimited supplies of men and weapons)
3. Putin's public comments suggest the territorial gains will be used as bargaining chips: you give up control of our land and we'll give up control of yours.
4. Also, a story in this morning's Guardian - and even the Guardian could engage in 'western propaganda'! - is that the Ukrainian military success is welcomed by the inhabitants there - though their names sound more Ukrainian than Russian to me. Must reread it.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...d&utm_campaign

Where borders are, or have been historically, fluid then there will be blurring of the demarcation through names, language etc?

[french frank]

Several ideas on this, trying to see the situation from Ukraine's point of view:

1. The publicity which this has received within in Russia sends a message to Russians that Putin is not winning his 'quick' war
2. The Ukrainian successes will divert Russian troops from elsewhere (no indication that mighty Russia has unlimited supplies of men and weapons)
3. Putin's public comments suggest the territorial gains will be used as bargaining chips: you give up control of our land and we'll give up control of yours.
4. Also, a story in this morning's Guardian - and even the Guardian could engage in 'western propaganda'! - is that the Ukrainian military success is welcomed by the inhabitants there - though their names sound more Ukrainian than Russian to me. Must reread it.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/12/i-felt-euphoria-ukraines-borderland-refugees-praise-incursion-into-russia?utm_term=66bada6ed017b6985d6665fcc200f8dd&utm_campaign

[Bella Kemp]

Ukraine needs to keep hold of its rightful moral high ground. Making tens of thousands of ordinary people homeless and no doubt killing many can't be the way to win this war. All such actions will do is fire up the patriotism of the Russians so that they really side with Putin - rather than simple support him out of fear, as has been the case until now.

[Serial_Apologist]

Have we heard yet what thoughts there are on Ukraine's incursion into Russia? I'm not sure that I understand why so much effort is being put into that - is it simply that the Russian defences inside Ukraine are proving just too hard to break down?

What I understood from what I heard the Ukrainian military is supposed to have said about this, the occupation would be expected to draw scarce Russian personnel back across the border to deal with it, thereby taking some pressure off the Donbas. I have to say it does appear to be a bad mistake to think this way - the Russians will deal with the invaders, probably very harshly, and then it will be back to square one.

[french frank]

Have we heard yet what thoughts there are on Ukraine's incursion into Russia? I'm not sure that I understand why so much effort is being put into that - is it simply that the Russian defences inside Ukraine are proving just too hard to break down?

[HighlandDougie]

Sir L's piece on "talks":

https://substack.com/home/post/p-146786251?source=queue&autoPlay=false

[Serial_Apologist]

The war has been going on for a long time: it is easy to forget what Ukraine has been going through.

Professor Freedman's latest article 'Lashing Out' explains the different possible reasons behind Russia's recent attack on a children's hospital. Sir Lawrence also provides some useful reminders about Putin's previous form in using such attacks to obtain his desired ends e.g. in Syria and Chechnaya.

I find it incredible that Western nations are still imposing limits on what Ukraine can do with some of the longer-range weapons being provided.

I find it incredible that some of my erstwhile friends on the Left in this country have abandoned what had always been a sacrosanct principle of support for any country subjected to uninvited invasion of its territorial integrity, apparently on grounds that Welenskyy is some kind of fascist leader and "Russia" has every right to feel threatened by NATO's eastward expansion. They appear to hold to some crazy idea that a nation should only go about defending its borders when it has "the right kind" of leadership - rather like the man in the apocryphal story who refuses to have an arrow removed from his heart until he knows every single detail about his assailant. The latter tale is actually attributed to the Buddha whose argument was over religious dogmas that insisted on their own truths concerning how the universe originated, but it applies here too.

[Historian]

The war has been going on for a long time: it is easy to forget what Ukraine has been going through.

Professor Freedman's latest article 'Lashing Out' explains the different possible reasons behind Russia's recent attack on a children's hospital. Sir Lawrence also provides some useful reminders about Putin's previous form in using such attacks to obtain his desired ends e.g. in Syria and Chechnaya.

I find it incredible that Western nations are still imposing limits on what Ukraine can do with some of the longer-range weapons being provided.

[Dave2002]

Here is a somewhat depressing article from the NY Times, which shows the scale of devastation.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/03/world/europe/ukraine-destruction.html

The comments section appears to have attracted the attention of Russian trolls - perhaps in other countries, such as India [allegedly].

[Historian]

I subscribe but, having previously been able to open the email links in my browser then copy/paste the URL into a post here in the forum, that browser link facility has disappeared. Next time I'll explore being able to do it through the App.

Thank you HD.

[HighlandDougie]

Professor Freedman's latest article: Fuzzy Red Lines in Ukraine. This focuses on the problems inherent in declaring a 'red line' and what to do if it is crossed.

FF is right that the previous article was 'premium content' and needed a subscription. This article is free to all (as are almost all the others).

I subscribe but, having previously been able to open the email links in my browser then copy/paste the URL into a post here in the forum, that browser link facility has disappeared. Next time I'll explore being able to do it through the App. - which I've now done. Older post but not sure that it has appeared in the thread:

https://samf.substack.com/p/a-reckless-gamble

[Serial_Apologist]

One therefore wonders what can possibly have motivated Macron, an important global strategist in thinking, to call a general election at a time when the "far right" in France (as elsewhere) appears to be on the rise. In the light of Prof Freedman's essay it seems not to make sense.