Ukraine

[eighthobstruction]

....anyone been listening to/watching Jeffery Sachs views on cause (USA caused it, "it was started as a proxy war") But the war will be over soon and Russia will not invade Europe - Stop Russiaphobia , the expansion of EU led to a deadly expansion of NATO (NATO not needed), but EU should have it's own separate security structure and foreign policy (introduction about 10 minutes) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXGYZsA-cCA

[richardfinegold]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/

fwiw, this is where I derived the aid data to Ukraine. The link may not work but I just brought up by typing the entire url. Tripling donations from EU countries sounds like a lot, but the figure of $48 billion euros over three years provides some context. (I can't help note that this is a bit more than Elon Musk spent for Twitter). Yes, a great deal of assistance to resettling refugees has been given that are probably not reflected here. fwiw we also have many Ukranian refugees. They are ubiquitous in Chicago and in New York Ukranians have actually out populated areas that were formerly Russian enclaves, such as Brighton Beach. In Detroit large areas that were formerly Polish ethnically are now Ukranian. And those are just areas that I am personally familiar with.

Hopefully, given the fact that Zelensky now appears to be knuckling under to our Clown In Chief, US Aid will be preserved at some manageable level.

None of this is ideal. I''m just speculating and hoping for Ukraine to survive. Hopefully the Russians will back off for a while militarily. Also hopefully Putin and Trump depart the scene over the next decade. What else can we wish for?
It's a tragedy that if present battle lines are frozen as the foundation of a cease fire that Russia will be rewarded with ill gotten gains. It's useful to remember that at the onset of the war all predictions were that the country would be completely overrun. And Russia has definitely paid a price. Their military is revealed to be a Piper Tiger that requires propping up from the likes of North Korea and Iran to achieve a limited victory over a much weaker neighbor. Trying to imagine the Russians projecting power further away from their landmass is difficult.

[eighthobstruction]

....seems to work....

....Sachs message seemed to be "Russia means you no harm"...."EU, separate from US, and arm yourself to the teeth"...(I simplify)....

....it is interesting that these rare earth mines appear now to be in Russian held regions....and the reports and estimations of quantity and worth were created by Russians pre Putin....( though I have also heard from Ukrainians the deposits are actually bonafide)

[Serial_Apologist]

....seems to work....

....Sachs message seemed to be "Russia means you no harm"...."EU, separate from US, and arm yourself to the teeth"...(I simplify)....

....it is interesting that these rare earth mines appear now to be in Russian held regions....and the reports and estimations of quantity and worth were created by Russians pre Putin....( though I have also heard from Ukrainians the deposits are actually bonafide)

Richard's "projected power" would in more probability consist in long-range shell, missile and drone firings than land or maritime invasions - so what are "we" doing building aircraft carriers - unless as some Keynsian jobs creation venture to pay good wages to then spend in retail. But the rate at which the speed of developments are drastically changing any picture to be reacted to forces one to think ever more drastically oneself - the latest news that arch-hypocrite Reeves now intends massive slashings on the welfare budget forces one into contemplating joining any burgeoning anti-war movement... What's to lose either way? there won't be much freedom left to defend or prospects for adequately funded retirement for those earmarked for service, let alone Net Zero and a habitable planet, once any of the existing and aspiring populist parties join the all-on-board belligerence bandwagon.

[Dave2002]

More and more Russian scamming of Trump supporters, if there's such a thing as poetic justice!

I've obviously not kept up.
Seems that RSRE was finally released for housing - but hopefully the expertise and functions of those who worked there - has not gone wasted and there are similarly very bright workers, with appropriate support and equipment distributed around the UK.

There have been agreements about information/data sharing between countries which presumably worked "more or less well" [with some dubous problem areas] in the past.
If things are going to get more muddy, then ... perhaps no further comment for the while.

https://www.thetimechamber.co.uk/beta/sites/military/rotor-radar-stations/royal-signals-and-radar-establishment-malvern

[eighthobstruction]

Richard's "projected power" would in more probability consist in long-range shell, missile and drone firings than land or maritime invasions - so what are "we" doing building aircraft carriers - unless as some Keynsian jobs creation venture to pay good wages to then spend in retail. But the rate at which the speed of developments are drastically changing any picture to be reacted to forces one to think ever more drastically oneself - the latest news that arch-hypocrite Reeves now intends massive slashings on the welfare budget forces one into contemplating joining any burgeoning anti-war movement... What's to lose either way? there won't be much freedom left to defend or prospects for adequately funded retirement for those earmarked for service, let alone Net Zero and a habitable planet, once any of the existing and aspiring populist parties join the all-on-board belligerence bandwagon.

....Sounds like a episode of Star Wars....all away to the Death Planet to seek NetZero....soon you S-A you will just be an old service drone with an reconditioned parts....

[french frank]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...id-to-ukraine/

Tripling donations from EU countries sounds like a lot, but the figure of $48 billion euros over three years provides some context.

But the €48.94bn came from the EU institutions and commission, didn't it? As I read it, the separate EU countries donated (E&OE) a further €64.16bn and the non EU Europeans (UK, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland) donated another €19.13bn. No?

"Since the start of the war, the EU and our Member States have made available close to $145 billion* in financial, military, humanitarian, and refugee assistance, of which 65% have been provided as grants or in-kind support and 35% in the form of highly concessional loans."

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/united-states-america/eu-assistance-ukraine-us-dollars_en?s=253

[Frances_iom]

... all of that is true. But if Russia 'wins' - viz claims all the Ukrainian territory it can - I do not think a subjugated Ukrainian population will passively submit. I can see an endless resistance movement, sabotaging what it can, to be termed a 'terrorist insurrection' by those of a Russian view. It's all going to be horrible, and I anticipate will go on for the rest of my life.

remember Stalin removed the Tatar population from Crimea - there's plenty of land in Siberia to accommodate unwanted Ukranians

[Retune]

....anyone been listening to/watching Jeffery Sachs views on cause (USA caused it, "it was started as a proxy war") But the war will be over soon and Russia will not invade Europe - Stop Russiaphobia , the expansion of EU led to a deadly expansion of NATO (NATO not needed), but EU should have it's own separate security structure and foreign policy (introduction about 10 minutes) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXGYZsA-cCA

Sachs seems to be the go-to apologist for dictators worldwide, with plenty of opinions useful to Putin, Xi and (until recently) Assad. He's basically just an elevated conspiracy theorist at this point. When the editor of The Lancet unwisely put Sachs in charge of their 'COVID-19 Commission', the whole thing descended into farce after he latched on to the wildest fringes of the 'lab leak hypothesis'. The virus, according to Sachs's biologically ludicrous pet theory, was engineered using a genetic sequence designed to mimic a segment of a human gene at the instigation of researchers in North Carolina, so the whole pandemic was really the fault of the US.

[eighthobstruction]

....Yes you are right ....sorry I haven't time to engage)....Sach's certainly has a high opinion of himself. Putin did not need to target Hospitals/Civilans/ Schools, Shelter/the Old.

[Dave2002]

Sachs seems to be the go-to apologist for dictators worldwide, with plenty of opinions useful to Putin, Xi and (until recently) Assad. He's basically just an elevated conspiracy theorist at this point. When the editor of The Lancet unwisely put Sachs in charge of their 'COVID-19 Commission', the whole thing descended into farce after he latched on to the wildest fringes of the 'lab leak hypothesis'. The virus, according to Sachs's biologically ludicrous pet theory, was engineered using a genetic sequence designed to mimic a segment of a human gene at the instigation of researchers in North Carolina, so the whole pandemic was really the fault of the US.

I don't know enough about Sachs to have a view - never seen anything about or by him before.

This might be salient though ""Europe should have its own foreign policy and its own military security, its own. I would disband NATO and may be Trump will do it anyway," said American economist and Columbia University Professor Jeffrey Sachs on February 19, 2025. "May be Trump will invade Greenland and then we will know what NATO is," he added. "Trump is an arms salesman. He is selling American technology. The increase in spending is for United States and not for you," he said."

Taken from the comment under the YT video linked to in msg 2079.

[Retune]

I don't know enough about Sachs to have a view - never seen anything about or by him before.

This might be salient though ""Europe should have its own foreign policy and its own military security, its own. I would disband NATO and may be Trump will do it anyway," said American economist and Columbia University Professor Jeffrey Sachs on February 19, 2025. "May be Trump will invade Greenland and then we will know what NATO is," he added. "Trump is an arms salesman. He is selling American technology. The increase in spending is for United States and not for you," he said."

Taken from the comment under the YT video linked to in msg 2079.

I wonder what Trump's policies will do to US arms exports in the long term? If the US is no longer seen as a reliable partner, it would be reasonable to expect that European countries (and others) will want to reduce their dependence on supplies of weapons and equipment that might be cut off at short notice at the whim of the current incumbent, or a like-minded successor. Perhaps Trump will be single-handedly responsible for the biggest boost in the European arms industry in 80 years, and US companies will eventually find themselves fighting for a reduced share of a tougher global market. But then I don't suppose Trump gives much thought to the long term consequences of anything.

[french frank]

If the US is no longer seen as a reliable partner, it would be reasonable to expect that European countries (and others) will want to reduce their dependence on supplies of weapons and equipment that might be cut off at short notice at the whim of the current incumbent, or a like-minded successor.

A current topic of discussion among the Europeans, of course. The Economist has an article about how Trump's policies will backfire on the American economy.

Perhaps Trump will be single-handedly responsible for the biggest boost in the European arms industry in 80 years

Not something in a vacuum to rejoice over, but circumstances alter cases - and, sadly, principles.

[eighthobstruction]

....I would say it will last exactly as long until the boards and share holders of Lockheed Martin/ Halliburton/ nortrop Grummam/ Heritage/ Boeing/ Sig Sauer/ Smith & Wesson find that their stocks have gone down...

[Dave2002]

... but circumstances alter cases - and, sadly, principles.

An interesting comment - which doesn't only apply to the immediate situations.

Bring on the Moral Maze and Trolley problems.