Ukraine

[Frances_iom]

Most likely explanations are 1. Ukraine blew up the dam....

unlikely - too much evidence against it - it was almost certainly a Russian operation - probably misjudged in that it was the road across the dam that was a potential attack route - but it's useful to hear from the opposition

[oddoneout]

Most likely explanations are 1. Ukraine blew up the dam in order to deprive Crimea of water supply and disrupt Russian defence preparations down river where the Russian occupied side is lower than the Ukrainian side. Or 2. it was accidental from a combination of lack of maintenance over the past 18 months and Ukrainian shelling of the dam in recent months where they hoped to degrade it just enough to allow more water to flow downstream and make it more difficult to reach Odessa in any renewed Russian offensive.

The collateral damage from the destruction of this dam are far too great even in an emergency situation I would have thought. The extent of the flooding with respect to the number of people displaced and the knock on effect on the nuclear power station at a time when power supplies are erratic and inadequate anyway to say nothing of the problems to Ukraine itself of a nuclear installation without cooling water, don't add up to a deliberate self-inflicted incident as far as I am concerned.
This is not the equivalent of the breaching of the Irpin Dam to protect Kyiv last year.

[Historian]

Most likely explanations [my italics] are 1. Ukraine blew up the dam in order to deprive Crimea of water supply and disrupt Russian defence preparations down river where the Russian occupied side is lower than the Ukrainian side. Or 2. it was accidental from a combination of lack of maintenance over the past 18 months and Ukrainian shelling of the dam in recent months where they hoped to degrade it just enough to allow more water to flow downstream and make it more difficult to reach Odessa in any renewed Russian offensive.

No.

1. While the destruction of the dam may have the adverse consequences for Crimea you describe this will not be the case for some time. Ukraine wants to take Crimea back, not destroy it. If Ukraine wishes to destroy the Russian positions on the Dnipro in this area then it has much more efficient means to do so using artillery and drones. Furthermore, there is no military justification for the destruction from Ukraine's point of view as there was no chance of Ukraine undertaking a major offensive across the Dnipro. Moreover, only one side has consistently shown a desire to kill civilians and create extensive damage to civilian property and that is Russia. I believe that destruction of dams and water supplies on this scale is classified as a war crime. Why would Ukraine wish to kill its own people and cause extensive damage and lasting agricultural and other problems not only to the Crimea but also to land it has never lost further upriver?

2. Russia has been able to lower sluice gates previously: before the destruction of the dam the Russians made sure that the reservoir was over-filled which made the eventual collapse far more devastating. As occupying power it was Russia's responsibility to maintain the dam and they failed to do so. Even if, which I doubt, Russian troops did not actively destroy the dam (with or without orders from higher command) Russia failed to act responsibly and let the accumulated water do its deadly work.

There was absolutely zero possibility of a 'renewed Russia offensive' towards Odesa long before the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. Russia has spent months attempting to advance across much of the front line with minimal success almost everywhere with the exception of Bakhmut. The only thing threatening Odesa is the continued use of missiles and drones targeting the civilian population rather than military targets.

[Petrushka]

Interesting news coming out of the Russia/Ukraine conflict https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ust-be-stopped

Looks like Prighozin is attempting to push for a military coup (though he denies this) and he might have gone too far this time. My guess is that he will soon be 'eliminated'.

[french frank]

Interesting news coming out of the Russia/Ukraine conflict https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ust-be-stopped

Looks like Prighozin is attempting to push for a military coup (though he denies this) and he might have gone too far this time. My guess is that he will soon be 'eliminated'.

Yep, depends on Putin's reaction. Prigozhin only seems after the military leadership. At the very least it might shake Putin's confidence, but I'd guess there would be too much uncertainty in the country if he sided with Prigozhin.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66005256

[Petrushka]

Yep, depends on Putin's reaction. Prigozhin only seems after the military leadership. At the very least it might shake Putin's confidence, but I'd guess there would be too much uncertainty in the country if he sided with Prigozhin.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66005256

Prighozin now claims to have seized military sites in Rostov. This looks increasingly to me that Russia could have started on the road to civil war but it does indeed depend on Putin's reaction. Stalin would have eliminated Prighozin months ago and his failure to do so might cost Putin dear. Watching this with interest.

[Bryn]

. . . Watching this with interest.

We do, indeed, live in interesting times. Interesting, and very dangerous.

[french frank]

We do, indeed, live in interesting times. Interesting, and very dangerous.

There is, perhaps, a possibility that Prigozhin hopes to recruit a disaffected military to his side for a coup which places him in power. But I believe he has recently stated that there is no 'Nazi regime' in Ukraine - difficult for Putin to swallow, even if Prigozhin were to take the line that Putin has just been misled by the military. It pulls the rug under the main rationale for the 'special military operation': a new Patriotic War.

[HighlandDougie]

Hot off the press - well, in my inbox - Sir Lawrence's thoughts:

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins-mutiny?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[Petrushka]

Hot off the press - well, in my inbox - Sir Lawrence's thoughts:

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhi...m_medium=email

Sir Lawrence is in his element here with a fascinating and insightful post. Yet again Russian history carries on repeating itself like no other country.

[DracoM]

Is Putin now in real trouble? And thus are we?

[Dave2002]

Is Putin now in real trouble? And thus are we?

Fascinating developments ...

[french frank]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/wagner-troops-may-reach-moscow-by-evening-as-kremlin-hurries-to-intercept

Prigozhin calls off march on Moscow

[Petrushka]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-to-intercept

Prigozhin calls off march on Moscow

Whatever deal has been done I doubt if Putin can be trusted to keep his side of it. Prigozhin has seriously humiliated him and Putin will want his revenge. On the other hand, Prigozhin has made himself look a fool by failing to follow through on his threat at the last moment. However, the key takeaway from these events is that Putin has suffered severe reputational damage and I'd say his days are numbered.

[french frank]

Whatever deal has been done I doubt if Putin can be trusted to keep his side of it. Prigozhin has seriously humiliated him and Putin will want his revenge.

And even assuming Prigozhin prudently decides to settle in Belarus, what happens to Wagner - incorporated into the Russian army, as Putin wanted in the first place?