Lib Dems

[ardcarp]

Well they've done it again....in a by-election. Strange isn't it that they pull a rabbit out of the hat once every blue moon. I do wonder if Boris's appeal both to the very rich and to the working classes (who think he's a bit of a wag) will AT LAST allow a moderate, middle-way sort of politics to emerge in this odd country of ours.

[DracoM]

[kernelbogey]

[Frances_iom]

Well they've done it again....in a by-election. ...

don't worry - self destruction is inbuilt into the Lib-dems - as for Labour just hopeless - no policy and a leader who needs to get one soon and start being an opposition rather than a doormat

[ardcarp]

self destruction is inbuilt into the Lib-dems

Hmmm. The polarised press and other media don't help.

[LMcD]

I got VERY excited when I heard the result of the Orpington by-election, and was a founder member of the local Young Liberals group. However, I'm now much better at recognizing a future minor political footnote when I see one.

[Dave2002]

We used to live in that constituency. Despite my general dislike of the Cons, the previous two incumbents were actually reasonable people who were sometimes very helpful and effective. We moved away some years ago, thus ensuring our unbroken record of never having an MP we actually voted for.

Some of our friends who still live round there are pleased - like watching a favoured football team put in several brilliant goals.

[french frank]

I got VERY excited when I heard the result of the Orpington by-election, and was a founder member of the local Young Liberals group. However, I'm now much better at recognizing a future minor political footnote when I see one.

Just reading an article in Prospect magazine which drew parallels with Orpington in 1962 which did, in one sense, 'break the mould' since until then with the demise of the 'old' Liberal party it really had been a Labour-Tory divide. The article even approves of the LibDem 'cakeism' strategy (giving BJ a taste of his own medecine): pro-HS2 nationally, treading very carefully locally

[gurnemanz]

I got VERY excited when I heard the result of the Orpington by-election, and was a founder member of the local Young Liberals group. However, I'm now much better at recognizing a future minor political footnote when I see one.

I can remember enjoying Private Eye calling the winner Eric Buttock. OK, schoolboy humour but I was a schoolboy at the time.

[vinteuil]

Just reading an article in Prospect magazine which drew parallels with Orpington in 1962 which did, in one sense, 'break the mould' since until then with the demise of the 'old' Liberal party it really had been a Labour-Tory divide.

... quite an interesting leader in The Times this morning. They see this a sign of a possible realignment in our politics. "Orpington 1962 presaged the end of a long period of Tory government, brought to a close by Harold Wilson’s success in the general election two years later. The Liberal Democrat victory in Newbury in 1993 was the first intimation of the scale of the electoral disaster that was to befall the Tories in 1997 after 18 years in power. But then other by-election results that seemed seismic at the time turned out to signify not very much; Bermondsey in 1983 was a false dawn for the fledgling Social Democratic Party... "


.

[Richard Barrett]

"Orpington 1962 presaged the end of a long period of Tory government, brought to a close by Harold Wilson’s success in the general election two years later. The Liberal Democrat victory in Newbury in 1993 was the first intimation of the scale of the electoral disaster that was to befall the Tories in 1997 after 18 years in power.

So after this by-election we can also look forward to a long period of Labour government beginning in a few years' time? `i suppose that isn't impossible.

[french frank]

I was thinking of the comparison between Hartlepool and Chesham & Amersham. It was pointed out that Hartlepool wasn't the unmitigated and quite unpredictable disaster for Labour. The 'red wall' had been crumbling for years and Hartlepool, 70% Leave in the referendum, was high on the list to fall fairly soon. A byelection is very likely to produce that result.

Given that the Tories and the Lib Dems were the only parties to retain their deposits in C&A, I think the tactical voting explanation is plausible. It was a Remain area by 55%-45%. I'd guess the electorate is too sophisticated to fall for the Johnson 'charisma' (for want of a better word). Most people will just see a crushing Lib Dem victory and think the party is on its way back - which may or may not be a self-fulfilling prophecy. It'll be a shot in the LDs collective arm, though.

But byelections, especially like this one, aren't often followed by GE victories. Too many topical issues involved.

I didn't see this one coming: Hartlepool was altogether more predictable/understandable.

[Dave2002]

I didn't see this one coming: Hartlepool was altogether more predictable/understandable.

We thought it was a possibility, but not by anything like such a big margin. Definitely a surprise I’d say. The Cons did send out big guns beforehand seemingly, but the voters either didn’t know, or didn’t care.

[Bryn]

We thought it was a possibility, but not by anything like such a big margin. Definitely a surprise I’d say. The Cons did send out big guns beforehand seemingly, but the voters either didn’t know, or didn’t care.

Or thought "get back to work and do the jobs you were elected to do".

[french frank]

The Cons did send out big guns beforehand seemingly

Oh, yes, that explains it