Trade Deal, or No Deal...

[Frances_iom]

Actually why would the EU do anything to ameliorate the UK decision? - the UK is now a 3rd country, obviously a large trading partner but one which on the UK side is looking elsewhere for its trade (a forlorn hope in my opinion) and whilst the UK is a large market for a few of the 27 the switch to an more internal EU market will develop quite quickly as the numerous bureaucratic impediments bite. Markets formerly occupied by large UK exports especially meat should be fairly quickly fill by internal EU trade - the UK backed down re fish so self-generated EU fish will be little affected but for the specialised fresh seafood sector here the trade can be switched on or off at short notice by whim of the EU and to me seems a market which cannot survive under present conditions.
My feeling is that Covid can continue to be the scapegoat for problems but within a few months serious questions need to be asked re the viability of certain, up to now, important export markets.

The much more interesting scenarios arise when the EU decides to move more of the current UK + London based financial trade 'on shore' as it were - the UK offshore finance centres, set up to exploit certain markets, are going to be in a dodgy situation without the UK in a position to have a say in the arrangements - I would be surprised if the online gambling industry for example will be allowed to remain beyond the control of the EU.

[Dave2002]

Actually why would the EU do anything to ameliorate the UK decision?

An interesting question indeed.

It might depend on whether the EU countries prefer competition or cooperation.

Who knows where this will all end up in thirty years time?

Sometimes "changes" turn out over time not to result in anything much different from the starting point. I'm thinking here of various moves towards deregulation (originally in the US) and breaking up of monopolies in the UK. Initially this does split up large companies, and possibly allow small companies in to the field, but after a relatively short while the small companies have been squeezed out, and then the larger companies which remain then merge or get taken over, so after a period the original status quo has almost been reinstated.

[Cockney Sparrow]

An interesting question indeed.

It might depend on whether the EU countries prefer competition or cooperation.

Or, taking a longer view, make the priority preserving the "Union" as it is, without states secceding from their project. Greece was a useful example for others in trying to free itself from financial straighjackets and impositions.

England and Wales (only possibly mainland Britain) will be a useful example of what happens to a small isolated state (with delusions of grandeur) when it decides to go it alone. I say Britain because whatever they say NI is now a separate state with a border. And Scotland is heading for independance with no one in government up to the job of countering it. We'll be lucky if Scotland stays in.....

As an anology, Imagining world trade and politics,as a pond - we will be a small teacup bobbing around hoping we don't get mown down by (intentionally) or overwhelmed (no need to care) in the wake of the supertanker behemoth states/alignments politically and economically - the US sphere, the China sphere, and EU trying to hold its end up, Russia/Former Soviet Union (relevant as long as Oil and Gas are needed). Edited in: of course - India, Africa

That is, unless we firmly tie ourselves to the US - including going along with any military adventures the incumbent ruling party want to start, to give it a veneer of validity.

I'm reading comments like "its what you Brexiteers voted for, so we've just got to suck it up, haven't we....." in places like the Times online. In part an expression of bitter rebuke. That's too accepting for me.

There needs to be a voice - a long and determined campaign to document and amplify the shortcomings of Brexit and the damages suffered. If only it can be planned and sustained as the Brexit movement was over decades.

[Leinster Lass]

Wasn't there talk of an Australian style deal - perhaps it included boomerang fish.

I have tried them, but I find they repeat on me. (I promise not to return to this subject).

[oddoneout]

I particularly "liked" this bit:



However, the article does suggest that there is a department in the EU looking at trade barriers like this, and hopefully eventually coming up with a sensible solution. In the meantime though this particular cheese maker seems likely to have relocated.

I guess he's rather cheesed off.

Another bit of irony to add to the French angle - https://twitter.com/Trade_EU/status/1352528432626868227 I don't know what if any help it can provide but at least it is likely to have accurate and up-to-date information. A lot of businesses seemed to have relied on EU sites for pointers as to what was or might be needed post Brexit, lacking any clue from gov.uk

[Dave2002]

Another bit of irony to add to the French angle - https://twitter.com/Trade_EU/status/1352528432626868227 I don't know what if any help it can provide but at least it is likely to have accurate and up-to-date information. A lot of businesses seemed to have relied on EU sites for pointers as to what was or might be needed post Brexit, lacking any clue from gov.uk

They clearly needed a MAP - which now I learn is called a Market Access Partnership.

[Leinster Lass]

Is the EU not simply doing everything it can to persuade any Member State that's considering leaving to think again?

[jayne lee wilson]

Is the EU not simply doing everything it can to persuade any Member State that's considering leaving to think again?

Well, why shouldn't it?

More to it of course - mainly, Tory Rightwing Brexit Obsessiveness, hurting its own citizens.......so blame the EU for every problem, or if that doesn't play well enough in the usual supportive devoted press, the oh so convenient pandemic.... current UK governors really are that cynical, as any analytical eye has seen for a long time...

[oddoneout]

Is the EU not simply doing everything it can to persuade any Member State that's considering leaving to think again?

I seem to remember that the deterrent effect was mentioned in 2019 with the rise of populist movements in some countries. The arrival of the pandemic rather diverted attention and the carcrash that is now happening to this country has possibly made some think again. It's one thing being told(by those you want rid of) about potential consequences, seeing them happening 'for real' is quite another.

[Frances_iom]

... current UK governors really are that cynical, as any analytical eye has seen for a long time...

There will be considerably worse to come - Pati Patel has already shown her authoritarian streak - BJ needs to be sacrificed soon on the basis of competence - the economic situation once the Covid situation has stabilised will I think be disastrous - tho there is good reason to think that this could be much further in the future than is let on by those supposedly managing the country - the nearest equivalent is I think the situation immediately post WW2 - 5 years of true austerity but without any decent leaders of the type that got the UK through that period.

[Serial_Apologist]

Well, why shouldn't it?

More to it of course - mainly, Tory Rightwing Brexit Obsessiveness, hurting its own citizens.......so blame the EU for every problem, or if that doesn't play well enough in the usual supportive devoted press, the oh so convenient pandemic.... current UK governors really are that cynical, as any analytical eye has seen for a long time...

Withe choice between the EU devil and the UK Tory blue sea, the blame goes 50/50 from me: two different models of capitalism, neither of which works.

[oddoneout]

That didn't appear on the bus...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu

More here

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/a-brexit-nightmare-the-british-businesses-being-pushed-to-breaking-point

which also includes this jawdropping, but I suppose not entirely unexpected nugget

in touch with a civil servant in the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) who knew nothing whatsoever about the VAT problem. “It was a complete surprise to him,” said Moss.

[jayne lee wilson]

That didn't appear on the bus...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu

More here

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/a-brexit-nightmare-the-british-businesses-being-pushed-to-breaking-point

which also includes this jawdropping, but I suppose not entirely unexpected nugget

No less disheartening, or heartbreaking, for being so entirely predictable...
Most of the press through December played up the Deal (good) No Deal (Bad) scenario, whilst Johnson and others boasted about how UK would prosper "under WHO terms" with No Deal....

So here are the results of all those years of lies and deceits..... will anyone ever be held accountable?
What we need in media terms, is a bombardment on "you voted to leave, how do you feel now?" - and we need it over and over throughout this year and afterward, seeing through the Covid-as-poltical-smokescreen.....(tragic though the C-19 reality actually is, in UK more than most)...

UK since 2010 - a tragic political history...

[french frank]

What we need in media terms, is a bombardment on "you voted to leave, how do you feel now?"

Many - or most - people don't admit to being wrong - they just find someone/something else to blame.

[jayne lee wilson]

Many - or most - people don't admit to being wrong - they just find someone/something else to blame.

Basic psychology yes - but this was crowd psychology at its worst, most shamefully and shamelessly manipulated and misled.....
I still retain hope that there will be enough losing of illusions and a facing of inner and outer truths, that may lead to true political change... realising that you have been duped, the anger and the energy that may create, can be a powerful motivator.

That may be an illusion of my own..... I hope not. It is at least a hope....