Trade Deal, or No Deal...

[Serial_Apologist]

This subject is bound to be broached sooner or later, so I thought I'd try & get discussion off the ground.

Without wishing excessively to front-load the debate with one of my customary long essays, the present blockage that is leading to much pessimism as to the likelihood of a deal being reached seems less attributable to "principle" - from the EU point of view the supposed "integrity of the market, from that of GB "national self-rule" - than a mutual intransigence born of inflexibility, particularly on the part of the Tory government and its nationalistic grass roots. Johnson and co could choose to interpret "our" right to decide on trade and other terms by compromising and granting most of what the French fishing industry is demanding by way of access to "our waters". This has always seemed to me to be the clinching issue - years ago I predicted military conflict with France resulting on French fisher folk blocking access to our boats and their ports, given the heavy emotional weight invested in the matter by the French electorate, to which Macron (or whichever President) would be forced to respond. On that other main issue, namely the right of British governments to subsidise our domestic industries, this amounts to hypocritical rhetoric where the Tories are concerned, as they have always been given to condemning EU subsidies as wasteful and anti-competitive, while of course accepting EU handouts to our most economically neglected regions. As far as I understand, the other main issue, the Ulster/Irish Republic border, has now been settled?

I believe, in short, that a small, symbolical gesture in proportional terms would shift the logjam to a negotiated settlement.

[oddoneout]

I'm afraid I have become so sickened by the whole stinking mess that I have opted out of anything other than the most cursory of glances at headlines, and find something else more worthwhile to read and concern myself with. As far as I can see some effects are going to be the same in terms of everyday life regardless of deal or not (although the degree of effect will be different) so I've also been going through my Brexit box and drawing up a shopping list. Now I have a freezer again batch cooking can resume. The possibility of power cuts has to be overlooked for now, although annoying the French won't help with that risk from what I seem to remember about our power supply arrangements. During the first lockdown the local fishmonger had some interesting offers at his market stall in town twice a week, due to the loss of the hospitality market for UK catch, I wonder if that will be repeated if tariffs etc make export to Europe unfeasible?

[Pulcinella]

Utter despair about the whole thing here.
Can't remember ever feeling so gloomy and in despair before.
I really feel for younger folk, who will have to cope with the financial consequences of both Brexit and Covid much longer than we here will, with our healthy pensions and comfortable house.

[Petrushka]

Utter despair about the whole thing here.
Can't remember ever feeling so gloomy and in despair before.
I really feel for younger folk, who will have to cope with the financial consequences of both Brexit and Covid much longer than we here will, with our healthy pensions and comfortable house.

Agree with all of that. I've been stockpiling tins of vegetables, pasta and frozen stuff for several months but now I learn that there might be a problem in obtaining chemicals used for water treatment so it's off to buy some bottled water. Anything else I should be getting in?

Those friends who voted 'leave' - yes. we're still friends despite the arguments - still cannot point to one benefit from the whole pathetic exercise yet refuse to admit they're wrong and blame anyone but themselves. As you say, utter despair.

[oddoneout]

Agree with all of that. I've been stockpiling tins of vegetables, pasta and frozen stuff for several months but now I learn that there might be a problem in obtaining chemicals used for water treatment so it's off to buy some bottled water. Anything else I should be getting in?

Those friends who voted 'leave' - yes. we're still friends despite the arguments - still cannot point to one benefit from the whole pathetic exercise yet refuse to admit they're wrong and blame anyone but themselves. As you say, utter despair.

Yes I read about that, and it took me back to the days when water treatment tablets were part of the essential camping kit for family holidays, especially in France. The water tasted foul and made rotten tea and gave me gut rot - although presumably not as bad as if the water wasn't treated... Thrilled to think I might have to go back to that - not. I can't handle large plastic bottles and the thought of the plastic waste from more manageable ones will make that an option of last resort. Perhaps next year's capital investment project should be a borehole and filtration plant in the back garden... Some houses round the corner had wells outside the back door so the potential is there.

[teamsaint]

Agree with all of that. I've been stockpiling tins of vegetables, pasta and frozen stuff for several months but now I learn that there might be a problem in obtaining chemicals used for water treatment so it's off to buy some bottled water. Anything else I should be getting in?

Those friends who voted 'leave' - yes. we're still friends despite the arguments - still cannot point to one benefit from the whole pathetic exercise yet refuse to admit they're wrong and blame anyone but themselves. As you say, utter despair.

I wonder if EU countries ( or their governments) would really stand by and see another country go short of things such as water treatment chemicals , because of red tape or logistical issues.
I know this shouldn’t be the point,and what a terrible situation to come to, but I doubt that many governments would want to be part of that.

As for the OP, well who knows? The world is even crazier than usual.

[Petrushka]

I wonder if EU countries ( or their governments) would really stand by and see another country go short of things such as water treatment chemicals , because of red tape or logistical issues.
I know this shouldn’t be the point,and what a terrible situation to come to, but I doubt that many governments would want to be part of that.

That was something like my first thought when I read about it but there is the possibility that it could happen by accident without anyone in government taking it into consideration. It could just be one of the many unintended consequences of January 1.

[teamsaint]

That was something like my first thought when I read about it but there is the possibility that it could happen by accident without anyone in government taking it into consideration. It could just be one of the many unintended consequences of January 1.

Yes it could. Modern economies are very complex, and I don’t believe that anybody has more than a partial understanding of how things will pan out under the various scenarios. There is certainly a lot of stockpiling going on, helpfully( for now) propping up the economy.
At least things are booming in the greater Felixstowe area......

[Bella Kemp]

It's so desperately appalling. Apart from messing up the economy and losing all the travel and living advantages we had in Europe, we have trashed that amazing thing: peace and security. For a few decades we experienced the knowledge that war with any European country was not merely unlikely but an utterly absurd idea. Without wanting to be melodramatic might I suggest that you would have to go back centuries to find another era where peace reigned so securely between Britain and her European neighbours.

[muzzer]

Meal or no meal. They were served fish for dinner, I read. How we laughed*....*no, we cried for our country. Again.

[DracoM]

Utter despair about the whole thing here.
Can't remember ever feeling so gloomy and in despair before.
I really feel for younger folk, who will have to cope with the financial consequences of both Brexit and Covid much longer than we here will, with our healthy pensions and comfortable house.

Yes, yes. YES.

What still utterly defeats me is that many areas of UK much the most likely to be majorly wrecked by Brexit voted to leave in the first place. Leaves me gobsmacked still.

[oddoneout]

Yes, yes. YES.

What still utterly defeats me is that many areas of UK much the most likely to be majorly wrecked by Brexit voted to leave in the first pace. Leaves me gobsmacked still.

It's what happens when decisions are made without having the facts to hand, and isn't limited to the electorate...
And please note before anyone jumps on this, I am not saying nor implying that leave voters were/are mentally deficient. It has suited successive governments to misinform about the EU and its workings, and the newspapers have always had their own agenda which, in too many influential cases, conveniently supports that.

[french frank]

What still utterly defeats me is that many areas of UK much the most likely to be majorly wrecked by Brexit voted to leave in the first pace. Leaves me gobsmacked still.

It's the same in the US. The rich have benefited from Trump's presidency. People have an idea lodged in their minds which nothing shifts - such as UK areas barely affected by immigration being most hostile to immigration.

[oddoneout]

It's the same in the US. The rich have benefited from Trump's presidency. People have an idea lodged in their minds which nothing shifts - such as UK areas barely affected by immigration being most hostile to immigration.

And not being aware that immigration controls were up to the UK - which, thanks to Theresa May when Home Sec, chose not to use them, a decision other countries found, erm, 'puzzling' I believe.

[teamsaint]

And not being aware that immigration controls were up to the UK - which, thanks to Theresa May when Home Sec, chose not to use them, a decision other countries found, erm, 'puzzling' I believe.

Tony Blair should take a great deal of the blame for this,as the really big decision was taken on his watch, he being of course a prominent and vocal pro- european.