Coronavirus: social, economic and other changes as a result of the pandemic

[teamsaint]

Has there been a comparably contagious/fatal virus - flu or otherwise - in your lifetime, team?

The narrow point was about mutations , not the severity of the disease. Hong Kong flu was an extremely nasty one.

The broader point is about the creation of an IT infrastructure that could be used for all sorts of nefarious purposes, and potentially with covid, ( after vaccinations and herd immunity) well under control. The mutations question can be addressed with updated vaccines.

[vinteuil]

The broader point is about the creation of an IT infrastructure that could be used for all sorts of nefarious purposes...

... I suppose, teamsaint, it largely depends on the personal weight you put on that 'could'. I think you tend to put far greater weight on it than I would.

Most of my working life was as part of what you might call 'the establishment'. One thing that my life more and more persuaded me was that if you had to decide whether particular events were the result of conspiracy or of a cock-up - it's almost never a conspiracy


.

[teamsaint]

... I suppose, teamsaint, it largely depends on the personal weight you put on that 'could'. I think you tend to put far greater weight on it than I would.

Most of my working life was as part of what you might call 'the establishment'. One thing that my life more and more persuaded me was that if you had to decide whether particular events were the result of conspiracy or of a cock-up - it's almost never a conspiracy


.

Fair point, but in this case the issue is, IMO, far too important to allow either cock up or conspiracy.
And the question remains as to whether there is likely to be a real public health benefit, and at what cost, and who else benefits.

[mikealdren]

Has there been a comparably contagious/fatal virus - flu or otherwise - in your lifetime, team?

In my lifetime yes; Hong Kong flu in 1968/9. Not quite as bad as Covid (estimates vary between about 1 and 4m deaths worldwide with about 80k deaths in the uk) but certainly comparable.

[Cockney Sparrow]

... I suppose, teamsaint, it largely depends on the personal weight you put on that 'could'. I think you tend to put far greater weight on it than I would.

Most of my working life was as part of what you might call 'the establishment'. One thing that my life more and more persuaded me was that if you had to decide whether particular events were the result of conspiracy or of a cock-up - it's almost never a conspiracy .

+1

[french frank]

In my lifetime yes; Hong Kong flu in 1968/9. Not quite as bad as Covid (estimates vary between about 1 and 4m deaths worldwide with about 80k deaths in the uk) but certainly comparable.

So getting on for twice the number of UK deaths this time - and we're not at the end yet despite the vaccines. Who can say (NB rhetorical) how many lives might have been saved in 1968 if there had been more 'non-pharmaceutical interventions'?

Team seems to be worried on two counts: 1) the lockdown restrictions and their effect on the economy and 2) the 'IT infrastructure' being developed and used and which could be re-employed for more sinister purposes. I wonder what government action he would think justifiable?

[teamsaint]

+1

CS, one thing that surprises me is the willingness of many on the liberal left( Edit : not people on this forum !) and the associated media, to apparently allow the current government a pretty easy ride on the authoritarian aspects of the way they have dealt with covid, having shown the same politicians a high degree of mistrust, probably rightly so, on Brexit.

Johnson proroguing parliament for five weeks over Brexit was an outrage, and it told us all we need to know about how they are prepared to act in terms of democratic accountability.

[teamsaint]

So getting on for twice the number of UK deaths this time - and we're not at the end yet despite the vaccines. Who can say (NB rhetorical) how many lives might have been saved in 1968 if there had been more 'non-pharmaceutical interventions'?

Team seems to be worried on two counts: 1) the lockdown restrictions and their effect on the economy and 2) the 'IT infrastructure' being developed and used and which could be re-employed for more sinister purposes. I wonder what government action he would think justifiable?

FF, I did cover some of this in an earlier post. There are of course other government actions that need urgent attention , such as increasing long term ICU capacity ( needed pre covid in any case) and enhanced support for covid treatments.

Of course the economy is of concern, especially the damage that unemployment inflicts on individuals. But much of the damage is now done, and it is vital that the parameters are set so that we don’t go there ( lockdown) again, except as a last resort.The collateral damage has to be considered very carefully.
With very effective vaccines, ( which are partly a result of early government intervention) herd immunity developing, incidence at low or manageable levels, and treatments improving it is very hard to see a public health justification for vaccine passports and the associated surveillance threat that they pose.

Re domestic vaccine passports, I’m with the Lib Dems .

[DracoM]

Read 'FAilures of State' . Calvert and Arbuthmot.
That'll frghten the llife out of you.

China? Ha!

Can we ever trust them again?
Lies, damned lies, imprisonment, retractions forced on informed and earnst whistleblowers....crikey!
On a world crisis that will kill millions.

Cui bono?

[french frank]

There are of course other government actions that need urgent attention , such as increasing long term ICU capacity ( needed pre covid in any case) and enhanced support for covid treatments.

I wouldn't disagree with that, though I'm less sure that they should be an alternative to preventing people getting infected in the first place. The collateral damage (short of death) has also to be considered, for one thing.

Re domestic vaccine passports, I’m with the Lib Dems .

[teamsaint]

I wouldn't disagree with that, though I'm less sure that they should be an alternative to preventing people getting infected in the first place. The collateral damage (short of death) has also to be considered, for one thing.

h:

Just to clarify ........ of course we should try to help people avoid becoming infected with serious disease. We do this anyway in the general run of things,in a proportionate manner. A year ago, the govt could be forgiven, perhaps, for not knowing what proportionate would be with covid.we have all been on a learning curve. And many public health lessons have been (re) learned...like not going into the workplace with symptomatic disease.Simple but effective .

[teamsaint]

Anybody who needs advice on how to “ hug safely” can get helpful advice on the BBC.
Phew.

Truly pathetic.Infantilisation doesn’t begin to cover it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-57046811

[Bryn]

Anybody who needs advice on how to “ hug safely” can get helpful advice on the BBC.
Phew.

Truly pathetic.Infantilisation doesn’t begin to cover it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-57046811

I don't agree. Common sense is all too rare. I see a role for such nudges.

[teamsaint]

I don't agree. Common sense is all too rare. I see a role for such nudges.

Ah well, we’ll have to disagree then. There is loads of common sense about.

Just not much of it in the government.

Nudge units and the like can all **** off as far as I am concerned. Until we learn to properly assess personal risk, we are heading into trouble.

[Anastasius]

..... Until we learn to properly assess personal risk, we are heading into trouble.

100% in agreement. Trouble is the Govt hasn't got a clue about getting that message across. To tippy-toed IMO. Look at the importation of the Indian variants. A lot could have been stopped. Immediate cessation of all flights from India etc would have been the sensible option. Not this wishy-washy approach. Next week's lockdown easing. That needs to stop. Until BoJo grows a pair of cojones, this cycle is going to repeat itself over and over again.