Coronavirus: social, economic and other changes as a result of the pandemic

[Simon B]

Do you have inside information?

Not a thing, no. It may be that those in the know aren't concerned precisely because they do have data that's not in the public domain that explains it.

However, as can readily be seen from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk a sustained trend of 25% decline/week has quite suddenly been superseded by more like 11% sustained over 5-6 days. This correlates with changes in the number of tests being conducted and with reports from the team that run the Zoe symptom tracker app. It could be an artefact of variant surge testing but at this point you get into territory where only someone who does actually know what they're on about can usefully comment.

To be fair (not an easy thing to do) to them the Daily Wail have now jumped on this one - though in their usual style by picking on a single day's figure and making spurious extrapolations and having copious spasms of capital letters...

[johnb]

However, as can readily be seen from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk a sustained trend of 25% decline/week has quite suddenly been superseded by more like 11% sustained over 5-6 days. This correlates with changes in the number of tests being conducted and with reports from the team that run the Zoe symptom tracker app. It could be an artefact of variant surge testing but at this point you get into territory where only someone who does actually know what they're on about can usefully comment.

What you wrote caught my attention so I have looked at the cases by specimen date for England, using today's data downloaded from the gov.uk website. I calculated the rolling 7 day average of confirmed cases then calculated the rolling percentage decrease (the 7 day average compared with the 7 day average from 7 days previous, if that makes sense) and this is what I came up with (the pattern for the UK as a whole is similar)


The percentage increases after 17th use incomplete data and those percentages will be revised in the days to come, especially towards the more recent days.

According to my figures there has been a dip in the rate of decrease but not as extreme as 11% but the figures in the chart after tyhe 17th will be subject to revision so it will be interesting to see what happens. (Admittedly I might well have cocked things up.)

I'm interested where you got your figures.

[Simon B]

...(Admittedly I might well have cocked things up.)...

... is probably the answer that applies to me. I think I got the 11% by misreading something on the gov.uk dashboard front page.

However, more generally I did (I think) the same as you except I use the "date reported" figures and deliberately overlook the shortcomings of this - because when comparing 7 day averages, 7 days apart, you are at least comparing like-with-like all the way up to today's data.

When I do that, I get something like:

(earlier comparisons - long list of {25% < decline < 30%} going back to 4 weeks ago)
17/2 v 10/2: 12289 16191 -24%
18/2 v 11/2: 12084 15171 -20%
19/2 v 12/2: 11639 14604 -25%
20/2 v 13/2: 11224 13895 -19%
21/2 v 14/2: 11061 13200 -16%
22/2 v 15/2: 11014 12580 -12%

I don't think these numbers (unlike tests by specimen date) get updated, but if they do they can only really get worse than the above. Something has changed, though maybe only temporarily. You can see it just by looking at the shape of the curves in the raw data which is what drew my attention.

(With apologies to the non-data people as the other Coronavirus thread usually gets used by we number wranglers)

[teamsaint]

The effects of a lockdown , in terms of reducing infections , at whatever level it is being implemented , are surely bound to wear off after a while , since the virus will continue to circulate in the active, mobile population ?
Meanwhile collateral damage will continue to occur?

[Simon B]

The effects of a lockdown , in terms of reducing infections , at whatever level it is being implemented , are surely bound to wear off after a while , since the virus will continue to circulate in the active, mobile population ?
Meanwhile collateral damage will continue to occur?

If lockdown is the only thing influencing it, yes, unless "natural herd immunity" in that sub-population takes over. It's plausible vaccines (assuming the accruing evidence that they have a major impact isn't contradicted) aren't present much in the mobile population segment. Other than in the event of some factors which together end up as dominant influences (everyone dead, everyone acquired natural immunity, lots of people got effective vaccines, summer UV radiation enough to clobber it) it'll find its own irreducible level.

In the context of some scientists and/or govt advisers saying they want to see these figures get down to 1000/day, if the exponent drops from 25%/week to 10%/week it'll take 22 weeks rather than 8. Good luck selling that idea!

[DracoM]

Just been listening to Radio 5's B'fast prog.
Listening to their callers makes me pretty scared
This virus is here to stay EVERY winter for a long time - it ain't going away and we will have to have a massive vaccination nationally - all AGE groups - for years to come - as the flu jab is now. Ask ANY epidemiologist - Viruses mutate, hence more vaccination programmes will be necessary with re-configured materials.

THEN - and this is crucial -

ask BIG Qs about schools /teaching / the exam system and how we manage the education of the next generation. Without education, we do not have ANY kind of future as a nation. .
The implications are colossal, and many listeners seemed to be living in a quite understandable but cloud-cuckoo land self-deceit.

As for PM Johnson. Remember the word he used about treatment? Making the virus pandemic's defeat by vaccination 'IRREVERSIBLE'.
UTTER, UTTER, DANGEROUS MISINFORMATION.

[french frank]

BIG Qs about schools /teaching / the exam system and how we manage the education of the next generation. Without education, we do not have ANY kind of future as a nation. .

Consensus here (today's Guardian), at least, that full reopening of schools is a quesionable move.

[Frances_iom]

why do we need to educate the lower classes ? after all with Tory policies there will be few high paying jobs (and those are already allocated to public schools) thus education of the masses is a cost we can't afford - just legalise cannabis or even ecstasy and let them stew at home - why else did we push Brexit if it wasn't to get out from that annoying social democrat rubbish preached by Brussels.


(and yes this is sarcasm but with BJ I've found that this gets us nearer to the actuality

[eighthobstruction]

ask BIG Qs about schools /teaching / the exam system and how we manage the education of the next generation. Without education, we do not have ANY kind of future as a nation. .

With the uneducated unemployed at home all day I reckon we will have a future as an overpopulated nation....

[oddoneout]

With the uneducated unemployed at home all day I reckon we will have a future as an overpopulated nation....

So much for controlling our borders to prevent overpopulation eh?

[Frances_iom]

So much for controlling our borders to prevent overpopulation eh?

no the pink pills include a contraceptive - it's going to be a brave new world once house arrest is over

[Anastasius]

The effects of a lockdown , in terms of reducing infections , at whatever level it is being implemented , are surely bound to wear off after a while , since the virus will continue to circulate in the active, mobile population ?
Meanwhile collateral damage will continue to occur?

Sorry...don't understand what you mean by 'active, mobile population'? And also trying to pickup the thread that you're responding to. Been back a few pages but nothing obvious. Sorry.

[Anastasius]

On a brighter note, pray for rain, rain, rain and more rain across the entire country over Easter. Otherwise it will be a spike all over again.

[teamsaint]

Sorry...don't understand what you mean by 'active, mobile population'? And also trying to pickup the thread that you're responding to. Been back a few pages but nothing obvious. Sorry.

The point was that a certain proportion of the population is not locked down, certainly workwise. So with , say, 30 % of the population which is going to work etc, there is a limit to how far a lockdown can suppress the spread.

I was responding to Simon B’s # 379, which had stats showing a gradually reducing level of fall in cases.

[Bryn]

On a brighter note, pray for rain, rain, rain and more rain across the entire country over Easter. Otherwise it will be a spike all over again.

Since Maundy Thursday falls on April Fools' Day, this year, I wonder if Betty Windsor will give out chocolate coins, for the craic?