Coronavirus: social, economic and other changes as a result of the pandemic

[oddoneout]

The recent job losses in Sainsbury's are interesting. As one might - hopefully - expect, the store did manage to distribute and sell more food, and apparently took on or redeployed staff to do so. However, the enterprise as a whole seems to have had failings, resulting in the job losses, and closure of fresh meat and fish counters.

Does this mean that a significant part of the business was based on selling non-essential, or not so essential items? Are similar observations to be made about many other businesses, which seem clearly less essential ab initio?

The bulk of the job losses are from Argos as I understand it. The fresh food counters in supermarkets that have them have been somewhat problematic and therefore vulnerable for some time, so news that JS is giving up completely on that front isn't entirely unexpected. Fewer shoppers want to spend time choosing items and waiting for them to be cut, sliced whatever - increasingly it's a case of a trolley grab and dash from the shelves and out as quickly as possible. The wastage levels and costs from such counters can be high even when well run but especially so generally given the endemic bad management that prevails. I worked on an in-store deli counter for 10 years and the frustration of being unable to deal with problems such as overstocking, or short-coded lines was considerable; store managers would do things by the theory/ head office mantras, not by the reality, and rarely made any attempt to feed back effectively to regional managers or head office about problems, and never about the solutions staff often came up with. We would just get regularly complained at for breaching wastage targets. Occasionally I would get sufficiently narked by it to present the relevant evidence(notes to section supervisor, requests to start reduction plan etc) and say ' we told you that would happen and you chose not to act'. The fresh food counters are now not staffed consistently or adequately(often relying on staff pulled in from elsewhere to meet demand when cover is not rostered) and so, surprise surprise, customers walk away if they can't get service. I can't help wondering if uncertainty about supplies after Dec 31st might have played a part as well - it's far more difficult to deal with gaps on a specialised counter than on the chilled pre-pack shelves, and anathema to have staff with little or nothing to do in their sections.

[teamsaint]

So to quote Alexander Pope:

"WHO shall decide when doctors disagree?" Or who?

Welll we could start with people who give the most accurate figures and forecasts available, rather than out of date and already inaccurate forecasts. if Whitty and Vallance can give us those, then that would be good.

[Serial_Apologist]

The bulk of the job losses are from Argos as I understand it. The fresh food counters in supermarkets that have them have been somewhat problematic and therefore vulnerable for some time, so news that JS is giving up completely on that front isn't entirely unexpected. Fewer shoppers want to spend time choosing items and waiting for them to be cut, sliced whatever - increasingly it's a case of a trolley grab and dash from the shelves and out as quickly as possible. The wastage levels and costs from such counters can be high even when well run but especially so generally given the endemic bad management that prevails. I worked on an in-store deli counter for 10 years and the frustration of being unable to deal with problems such as overstocking, or short-coded lines was considerable; store managers would do things by the theory/ head office mantras, not by the reality, and rarely made any attempt to feed back effectively to regional managers or head office about problems, and never about the solutions staff often came up with. We would just get regularly complained at for breaching wastage targets. Occasionally I would get sufficiently narked by it to present the relevant evidence(notes to section supervisor, requests to start reduction plan etc) and say ' we told you that would happen and you chose not to act'. The fresh food counters are now not staffed consistently or adequately(often relying on staff pulled in from elsewhere to meet demand when cover is not rostered) and so, surprise surprise, customers walk away if they can't get service. I can't help wondering if uncertainty about supplies after Dec 31st might have played a part as well - it's far more difficult to deal with gaps on a specialised counter than on the chilled pre-pack shelves, and anathema to have staff with little or nothing to do in their sections.

The way Sainsburys has treated its staff is utterly disgraceful and just typical of the way managements go about running their little bits of capitalism. All the supermarkets have done exceptionally well for themselves under the pandemic, yet the employees have to take the brunt of mismanagement at the top. This is what the Thatcherites meant by management should be allowed to manage, not be subject to "restrictive practices", and it made me sick at the time and still does. I feel so sorry for the staff, who loyally to their customers go about maintaining a friendly welcoming atmosphere for little pay - not least those from Argos who were taken under the Sainsbury branches wing under the assurance that their employment would presumably be secure. The death of UK manufacturing was supposed to be substituted by having a "service economy", of which retail would form a significant part and proclaim the worth of British goods and services to the tourist trade - much of the merchandise imported from non-unionised sweatshops in the Far East - and the shopping centres that are now all closing down. All lies, of course. This doesn't mean I shall stop shopping there, because as we all know, once one chain starts to "rationalise" its operations the others will follow on. This is called healthy competition.

[french frank]

Sell we coupd start with getting the most accurate figures and forecasts available, rather than out of date and already inaccurate forecasts. if Whitty and Vallance can give us those, then that would be a start.

I just looked up what WHO actually said about lockdowns. No, they aren't against them. No they haven't reversed what they said. As one of a number of courses of action it serves a particular pupose. It buys time when you need to do that - like now that there has been a fierce spike.

World Health Organization (WHO@WHO)
We are aware that lockdowns are again a topic of discussion as countries deal with surges of #COVID19.
We understand that sometimes such measures - although not sustainable - are needed to swiftly suppress the virus and avoid health systems being overwhelmed.
3:16 pm · 13 Oct 2020·Twitter Web App

[teamsaint]

I just looked up what WHO actually said about lockdowns. No, they aren't against them. No they haven't reversed what they said. As one of a number of courses of action it serves a particular pupose. It buys time when you need to do that - like now that there has been a fierce spike.

World Health Organization (WHO@WHO)
We are aware that lockdowns are again a topic of discussion as countries deal with surges of #COVID19.
We understand that sometimes such measures - although not sustainable - are needed to swiftly suppress the virus and avoid health systems being overwhelmed.
3:16 pm · 13 Oct 2020·Twitter Web App

As I said, against them as a primary method.
And as we know, levels were already levelling off in the hot spots before lockdown. And I didn’t suggest that they had reversed their position.

Now, back to that misleading( at best ) data.....

[Dave2002]

The way Sainsburys has treated its staff is utterly disgraceful and just typical of the way managements go about running their little bits of capitalism. All the supermarkets have done exceptionally well for themselves under the pandemic, yet the employees have to take the brunt of mismanagement at the top.

What evidence do you have for the supermarkets doing well under the pandemic. Clearly most have done quite well with food distribution, for which we in particular are very glad, but in other ways - judged by capitalist markets they haven't done well at all. However, other firms haven't done so well either - most have taken a hit, apart perhaps from the likes of AstraZeneca.

My point in post 255 was that supermarkets (in particular Sainsbury's) were able to meet demand for food - one of the major essentials, but the remainder of their activity, presumably mostly judged less essential by the buying public, was more than capable of satisfying the demand for other products, and therefore in the interests of at least not making losses any worse, the decision makers at Sainsbury's decided to trim back on staff.

My conclusion, which I have not so far seen refuted, is therefore that there is much less demand for the products and services which have been cut, so those working in the activities related to those were previously working to supply non essential items. I suspect that a great deal of activity in our "economy" is based on non-essential things and activities - though I'm not going to discriminate between them, even though I have preferences.

[french frank]

And as we know, levels were already levelling off in the hot spots before lockdown..

But going up elsewhere. What data do you want. johnb produces his graphs from data that are publicly available. Daily summary (7th Nov) reported 413 deaths, 2,333 in 7 days; hospital admissions 1,472 daily, 10,274 over 7 days. There may be hotspots and lower case areas, but people are like the fish in the sea which bedevil fishing policies: they don't stay confined in one place.

[Serial_Apologist]

What evidence do you have for the supermarkets doing well under the pandemic.

No companies have done better than they would have, but for Covid-19 - I was thinking in relative terms; supermarkets have done better than most.

[teamsaint]

But going up elsewhere. What data do you want. johnb produces his graphs from data that are publicly available. Daily summary (7th Nov) reported 413 deaths, 2,333 in 7 days; hospital admissions 1,472 daily, 10,274 over 7 days. There may be hotspots and lower case areas, but people are like the fish in the sea which bedevil fishing policies: they don't stay confined in one place.

At the risk of going round in circles, I would like government policy decided and presented to the public on the best, most up to date information and forecasts available. Not so much to ask in a pandemic ?

Edit. It is possible of course that Whitty and Vallance were told to produce figures that fitted a decision that the govt had already taken

[teamsaint]

No companies have done better than they would have, but for Covid-19 - I was thinking in relative terms; supermarkets have done better than most.

Supermarkets are hoovering up an awful lot of book sales that might otherwise have gone to bookshops. Bookshops that went to a great deal of trouble to make themselves “ covid secure”.

[french frank]

I would like government policy decided and presented to the public on the best, most up to date information and forecasts available. Not so much to ask in a pandemic ?

Not something I'm going to disagree with

[johnb]

As I said, against them as a primary method.
And as we know, levels were already levelling off in the hot spots before lockdown. And I didn’t suggest that they had reversed their position.

Now, back to that misleading( at best ) data.....

This is difficult because there are no guaranteed solutions. The people making decisions have to take into account what the downsides are of various policies if they fail to achieve what is hoped. Yes, some experts have questioned the lockdown policy but far more spent weeks calling for such measures to be implemented.

This is a screen grab of the increases/decreases in CV-19 cases for the 7 days to 02/11/20 vs the previous 7 days, using the data PHE published today. (One has to go back 5 days in order to get fairly complete data for the later week, otherwise one is comparing a week that has complete data with one that hasn't.)

It is very much a mixed picture and even where areas show decreases the infection levels are often very worryingly high - look at the data to the side of the map.



The interactive map is on Micosoft's Power Bi platform and has a floating "information pane" giving the last 6 weeks data for an area, etc. The "report" also has pages for Cases/100k (for 7 days to 02/11) and Deaths for 7 days to 07/11),

Note - it is designed to be viewed on a computer rather than a smartphone or tablet.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZDkxMTQwYTAtZGI2MS00MjI2LWJkYzEtNDQ3ZjM0ZDczZTE0IiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

(I'll be updating the "normal" case map for the 7 days to 04/11 later:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMzg0YjRiMDUtYjVhZC00MWQ3LWIxMTUtMTkyMjExZWRhM2VjIiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

.... and if anyone is curious about the situation in Bristol, there is this:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMWM5NTljYjQtMWQ1OC00YzMzLWFlZmUtOTMwMmQzY2Q1OTJiIiwidCI6IjQyMTI4YmIwLTJjZjgtNDY3MC1iNzRhLWZhNDlmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

[french frank]

.... and if anyone is curious about the situation in Bristol, there is this:
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...lmNGJkMDQzZSJ9

I see what you mean: there are some biggish decreases in some places, but the actual numbers could so easily start another surge. City centre down 34% but still 103 cases.

Actually, what you're seeing (isn't it?) is as regards percentages in MSOAs where there were a very high number of cases there are now big decreases but where there were fewer cases there are big increases. How would you deal with a situation like that in terms of local strategy?

[johnb]

I see what you mean: there are some biggish decreases in some places, but the actual numbers could so easily start another surge. City centre down 34% but still 103 cases.

Actually, what you're seeing (isn't it?) is as regards percentages in MSOAs where there were a very high number of cases there are now big decreases but where there were fewer cases there are big increases. How would you deal with a situation like that in terms of local strategy?

Yes, most of the areas that had the highest infection levels were student areas. The cases in those areas is now declining though they are still in the 400 to 500 cases/100k bracket. In the meantime the infection has spread out to the surrounding areas.

At the same time, looking at the Cases by Age Group page, the infection rate in the 15-19 age group soared to 1050 cases/100k before falling back (freshers looking for Ibiza lifestyle, with bad weather ?). The 20-14 group climbed to 890 cases/100k before falling back. Other age groups have started to flatten out but, and this is most worrying, infections in the 60+ age group started to rise mid October and continue on an upward trajectory.

Personally I think the government had no alternative but to implement a lockdown. I'm just worried whether this lockdown-lite will have the desired effect.

Another screen grab:

[teamsaint]

Perhaps mink farming will be made illegal, in those places where it still is.
Not before time, I’d say