Coronavirus: social, economic and other changes as a result of the pandemic

[Pulcinella]

Algorithm

I suspect that the exam boards may well each have their own perfectly suitable and workable algorithms that they use routinely for moderation purposes, but that Ofqual will have wanted to create their own (world-beating) one without consulting the boards, rather like reinventing the wheel.
It's not the algorithm's fault if it does exactly what it's asked to do, so don't be too hard on them.
It's the people that write them without thinking the consequences through that deserve the s

[Serial_Apologist]

This article about the possible effects of coronavirus and architecture (and working life and commuting ...) is worth reading - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources...3-bb7eda5fff8e

I was unaware of shifts in homes and commuting patterns due to disease outbreaks in the past. The suggestion that major structural changes - architecture - will take about 5 years on average to happen, is also of interest.

Fine if you've got the space at home, or can afford to move to the 'burbs, where property prices will be made more competitive by city evacuees. But some people are still going to want to live in inner cities, which - hopefully for other related reasons - should become cleaner less polluted places: think of all the potential acccommodation offered by all the empty office space!

[Serial_Apologist]

As a bear of little brain, I'm trying to work out what she meant.

What she probably meant was that if students are graded too highly in their exams this will not give employers an accurate basis for assessing their suitability as job applicants; how it came across - to me at any rate - was that it would lead to some parents saying, how dare that school, or those teachers, give my little Tommy a lower grade than they've awarded to Sam, who is less deserving?

[teamsaint]

My mum just had her annual “ check up”. Probably a condition of keeping her on roll, and the cash coming into the practice.
She had the consultation standing in a courtyard, while the doctor was talking through a window , inside the building.

I would have told them to call me when they can do the appointment properly .
Or the anglo saxon equivalent.
She is 80 years old, and has survived a heart attack, an aneurism, and has type 2 diabetes.

We should be deeply ashamed of this sort of “ treatment”.

I wonder if people de registered en masse from their GP s, whether the loss of cash might provoke a response from the government.

We need to take a stand. The NHS , free at the point of use , is the one thing that still unites people in this country . But there needs to be a worthwhile point of use.

Disgusted of S Wilts.

[oddoneout]

Fine if you've got the space at home, or can afford to move to the 'burbs, where property prices will be made more competitive by city evacuees. But some people are still going to want to live in inner cities, which - hopefully for other related reasons - should become cleaner less polluted places: think of all the potential acccommodation offered by all the empty office space!

And all available to develop without pesky planning limitations...

[Serial_Apologist]

My mum just had her annual “ check up”. Probably a condition of keeping her on roll, and the cash coming into the practice.
She had the consultation standing in a courtyard, while the doctor was talking through a window , inside the building.

I would have told them to call me when they can do the appointment properly .
Or the anglo saxon equivalent.
She is 80 years old, and has survived a heart attack, an aneurism, and has type 2 diabetes.

We should be deeply ashamed of this sort of “ treatment”.

I wonder if people de registered en masse from their GP s, whether the loss of cash might provoke a response from the government.

We need to take a stand. The NHS , free at the point of use , is the one thing that still unites people in this country . But there needs to be a worthwhile point of use.

Disgusted of S Wilts.

Your mum is in a similar situation to me then, as I reported on here a few days ago. The surgery, which in May every year since my heart attack has called me in for an annual review, when they have sent me off to have blood tests and then re-newed my prescription, has not been in touch at all. Fortunately I do not have Diabetes Type 2 - well, I'm having to assume that - although I've been close to the threshold and seriously reminded to mind my diet and continue taking the exercise. What are we oldies supposed to do? Luckily the pharmacy agrees to continue my standing order on my say-so every 2 months, which seems amazingly slap-dash. I have not had a regular GP at the local surgery for several years now due to continual staff turnover, and not having skype or the other system can only communicate with them by email or phone. Are we now to be considered "surplus to requirements"?

[teamsaint]

Your mum is in a similar situation to me then, as I reported on here a few days ago. The surgery, which in May every year since my heart attack has called me in for an annual review, when they have sent me off to have blood tests and then re-newed my prescription, has not been in touch at all. Fortunately I do not have Diabetes Type 2 - well, I'm having to assume that - although I've been close to the threshold and seriously reminded to mind my diet and continue taking the exercise. What are we oldies supposed to do? Luckily the pharmacy agrees to continue my standing order on my say-so every 2 months, which seems amazingly slap-dash. I have not had a regular GP at the local surgery for several years now due to continual staff turnover, and not having skype or the other system can only communicate with them by email or phone. Are we now to be considered "surplus to requirements"?

Interestingly, a common gripe among workin age people, pre covid, was that you simple can’t get an appointment during working ( office) hours. But of course, I take your points.

[LHC]

I suspect that the exam boards may well each have their own perfectly suitable and workable algorithms that they use routinely for moderation purposes, but that Ofqual will have wanted to create their own (world-beating) one without consulting the boards, rather like reinventing the wheel.
It's not the algorithm's fault if it does exactly what it's asked to do, so don't be too hard on them.
It's the people that write them without thinking the consequences through that deserve the s

Ofqual actually consulted very widely on its proposals for grading students this year, and received over 1,400 responses. It’s final proposals took account of the responses received and were generally welcomed by most interested groups, including by the main teaching unions, when they were announced. The main issue, as far as I can see, is an apparently unintended consequence of not applying the algorithm to small teaching/exam groups, for perfectly sound reasons. This has resulted in more teachers’ grades being accepted without moderation from public schools, while the result from larger schools, and in particular, 6th form colleges, have been downgraded as a result of moderation.

Channel 4’s fact-check is quite interesting. It notes that, even after moderation, results in all types of school are better than last year. It’s just that public schools’ results have increased the most. They do, however, note that Ofqual might have foreseen the possibility that independent schools would reap the greatest rewards from the decision to exempt small cohorts from full moderation.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-did-england-exam-system-favour-private-schools

[french frank]

Channel 4’s fact-check is quite interesting. It notes that, even after moderation, results in all types of school are better than last year. It’s just that public schools’ results have increased the most. They do, however, note that Ofqual might have foreseen the possibility that independent schools would reap the greatest rewards from the decision to exempt small cohorts from full moderation.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...rivate-schools

It says, "As it stands, we don’t think there’s data in the public domain that can tell us definitively how much of this disparity is down to Ofqual’s moderation process."

What doesn't seem to be mentioned is that in the two bits of research I linked to elsewhere, what emerges is that the ("small cohort") independent/grammar schools have historically been more accurate in predicting final exam grades and that FE/6th form colleges and state schools assess significantly more "optimistically".

In my day, exam boards - at least the old ULSEB, now I think Edexel(?), moderated exams results and that was even before algorithms had been invented. More 'rule of thumb', probably, though I'm not sure about that.

[Pulcinella]

It says, "As it stands, we don’t think there’s data in the public domain that can tell us definitively how much of this disparity is down to Ofqual’s moderation process."

What doesn't seem to be mentioned is that in the two bits of research I linked to elsewhere, what emerges is that the ("small cohort") independent/grammar schools have historically been more accurate in predicting final exam grades and that FE/6th form colleges and state schools assess significantly more "optimistically".

In my day, exam boards - at least the old ULSEB, now I think Edexel(?), moderated exams results and that was even before algorithms had been invented. More 'rule of thumb', probably, though I'm not sure about that.

And reliability of prediction against actual result is surely something that should be considered part of a school's past performance, not just the results themselves.

This is now probably the wrong thread if this discussion is to continue: apologies if I sent us off topic with my reply to LMcD's hatred of 'algorithms'.

[Now moved to appropriate thread - ff]

[Cockney Sparrow]

16 August BBC1 10 o'clock news. Backed by an image of protesters, with this placard prominent at the A-level results demo in London (Parliament Square?)

"No Etonians were harmed in the making of this algorithm"

[LHC]

It says, "As it stands, we don’t think there’s data in the public domain that can tell us definitively how much of this disparity is down to Ofqual’s moderation process."

What doesn't seem to be mentioned is that in the two bits of research I linked to elsewhere, what emerges is that the ("small cohort") independent/grammar schools have historically been more accurate in predicting final exam grades and that FE/6th form colleges and state schools assess significantly more "optimistically".

In my day, exam boards - at least the old ULSEB, now I think Edexel(?), moderated exams results and that was even before algorithms had been invented. More 'rule of thumb', probably, though I'm not sure about that.

I understand that, if teachers assessments had all been accepted without moderation, as has now happened in Scotland, and various groups are asking for in England, this would see a 12% uplift in grades awarded from last year. Ofqual and the exam boards had agreed that a 2% increase would be acceptable, and the moderation applied was intended to keep the uplift at this level.

Of course there will always be anomalies when this system has to be applied across the Country, but this should be addressed through a fair appeals process, rather than simply accepting all the teacher assessments, no matter how generous. This is were the Government, and the incompetent Gavin Williamson, have really screwed up. By trying to amend the appeals process at the last minute, they have just made matters far worse.

[french frank]

Of course there will always be anomalies when this system has to be applied across the Country, but this should be addressed through a fair appeals process, rather than simply accepting all the teacher assessments, no matter how generous.

And the problem with students "achieving" the necessary qualifications for their desired course in this way is that it can rebound against them. Two examples from my personal experience: a student accepted for a French course when he only had an "O" level rather than Advanced/Higher. He stuck doggedly with the course in spite of indications that he wasn't coping, failed his exam and lost an entire year. A post-grad was accepted (not my decision!!!) to do a Master's with me in Old Provençal without a knowledge of French (or even Spanish, Catalan, Portuguese etc). She dropped out after a few months.

The US research shows that, under their system (no better), 40% of students are "mismatched", either accepted for a course for which they prove to be unqualified or with great ability but not reaching their true potential by getting a course/college that would suit it. I'm not sure that we aren't just seeing a situation where students demand what they want and get it - even if they aren't the best judges of what will be in their own interest.

[Serial_Apologist]

16 August BBC1 10 o'clock news. Backed by an image of protesters, with this placard prominent at the A-level results demo in London (Parliament Square?)

"No Etonians were harmed in the making of this algorithm"

Rule of plumb, rather than rule of thumb, to reply to ff's remark earlier.

[Serial_Apologist]

And the problem with students "achieving" the necessary qualifications for their desired course in this way is that it can rebound against them. Two examples from my personal experience: a student accepted for a French course when he only had an "O" level rather than Advanced/Higher. He stuck doggedly with the course in spite of indications that he wasn't coping, failed his exam and lost an entire year. A post-grad was accepted (not my decision!!!) to do a Master's with me in Old Provençal without a knowledge of French (or even Spanish, Catalan, Portuguese etc). She dropped out after a few months.

The US research shows that, under their system (no better), 40% of students are "mismatched", either accepted for a course for which they prove to be unqualified or with great ability but not reaching their true potential by getting a course/college that would suit it. I'm not sure that we aren't just seeing a situation where students demand what they want and get it - even if they aren't the best judges of what will be in their own interest.

Probably post-symptomatic of Blair era when, all of a sudden for the first time, school students were being expected to go to uni to get "anywhere" in life. So, what about now, post all the service industry panacea replacements for manufacturing, when careers in trades requiring apprenticeships are been seen as the new normal for employment prospects? Or is this further than the conversation wants to go just now?