Coronavirus

[Retune]

Interesting item on asymptomatic COVID. Not sure whether this link will work or not:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02318-w

Covered in this week's TWiV:

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-1028/

[teamsaint]

Perhaps you can link to this calculator? BHF = British Heart Foundation or something else? What exactly do you think was fiddled and why would the UKHSA want to fiddle it? What do you mean by 'coercion'? There were lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions, because it was (correctly) judged that a highly infectious virus with a population infection fatality ratio of the order of 1% would kill a lot of people if nothing were done, directly and because it would overwhelm the NHS. There's nothing more coercive than a virus that hijacks your cells and might end up ending your life. And because the vaccines were developed rapidly, the lockdowns and other interventions meant that most people did not encounter the virus until they were vaccinated, preventing hundreds of thousands of Covid deaths. Members of the medical and caring professions needed to be vaccinated to protect their patients and those they cared for (although the vaccines did not provide 'sterilising immunity' and abolish transmission, they had a significant short-term effect in reducing it, especially when they closely matched the circulating variants). But there was no general vaccine mandate.

I’m really not interested in getting into yet another discussion about vaccine mandates, the efficacy thereof, the fiddling of UKHSA data , coercion( there was plenty and it was very nasty ) IFR or anything else really. I am quite content on the points where I have raised specifics, the issues have been gone over endlessly , and we won’t change each others minds in any appreciable way.
Suffice to say I spent really rather a lot of time in 2020 and 2021 looking at all the best data and opinions available, including from supposedly reputable sources such as the UKHSA ,in order to take the best most appropriate actions whilst being increasingly pressurised by the govt and indeed other politicians.. As I said, I learned a lot. I’m not going to unlearn it.

incidentally , I can’t link to the specific BHF calculator , as it was replaced with another, less user friendly version maybe Autumn 2020?

[Retune]

I’m really not interested in getting into yet another discussion about vaccine mandates, the efficacy thereof, the fiddling of UKHSA data , coercion( there was plenty and it was very nasty ) IFR or anything else really. I am quite content on the points where I have raised specifics, the issues have been gone over endlessly , and we won’t change each others minds in any appreciable way.
Suffice to say I spent really rather a lot of time in 2020 and 2021 looking at all the best data and opinions available, including from supposedly reputable sources such as the UKHSA ,in order to take the best most appropriate actions whilst being increasingly pressurised by the govt and indeed other politicians.. As I said, I learned a lot. I’m not going to unlearn it.

incidentally , I can’t link to the specific BHF calculator , as it was replaced with another, less user friendly version maybe Autumn 2020?

Well, you did raise the issue, after only a passing reference to Covid misinformation in another thread. I also spent rather a lot of time looking at Covid data at that time (partly for work, but mostly for understanding the situation more generally). I concluded that the vaccines are indeed safe and effective, that the lockdowns were necessary (if belated), and silly policies like 'eat out to help out' did harm by encouraging mixing at a time when vaccines were on the immediate horizon. But I have few illusions about convincing anyone of anything! We have all learned lessons from the pandemic, but not always, I fear, the right ones. Covid was (and is) bad enough, but the next pandemic might be a good deal worse - we were 'lucky' that the population IFR was 'only' in the ~1% range this time. I'm concerned that the next time around, our society will also have to deal with a pandemic of antivax disinformation and medical conspiracy theories, transmitted by 'anything goes' social networks like Twitter under Musk.

[teamsaint]

Well, you did raise the issue, after only a passing reference to Covid misinformation in another thread. I also spent rather a lot of time looking at Covid data at that time (partly for work, but mostly for understanding the situation more generally). I concluded that the vaccines are indeed safe and effective, that the lockdowns were necessary (if belated), and silly policies like 'eat out to help out' did harm by encouraging mixing at a time when vaccines were on the immediate horizon. But I have few illusions about convincing anyone of anything! We have all learned lessons from the pandemic, but not always, I fear, the right ones. Covid was (and is) bad enough, but the next pandemic might be a good deal worse - we were 'lucky' that the population IFR was 'only' in the ~1% range this time. I'm concerned that the next time around, our society will also have to deal with a pandemic of antivax disinformation and medical conspiracy theories, transmitted by 'anything goes' social networks like Twitter under Musk.

you raised the issue, passing reference or not.
As regards the “ next time”, the one issue we might agree on is spending money on appropriate equipment and setting workable policy ahead of time.

The answer to SM misinformation is honest, accountable, clear and unbiased information from govt and its partners. It simply isn’t acceptable or indeed a practical long term solution to counter misinformation with more misinformation, dubious statistics presented under exceptional media regulation ( ofcom) backed up with threats and producing fear induced co-operation.
The liberal- left media ( and indeed much of the right wing media) may have decided this is acceptable, but I ( always voted Labour or Lib dem) don’t.
But the lesson learned is that they did it all once, and they can do it again .

[Retune]

you raised the issue, passing reference or not.
As regards the “ next time”, the one issue we might agree on is spending money on appropriate equipment and setting workable policy ahead of time.

The answer to SM misinformation is honest, accountable, clear and unbiased information from govt and its partners. It simply isn’t acceptable or indeed a practical long term solution to counter misinformation with more misinformation, dubious statistics presented under exceptional media regulation ( ofcom) backed up with threats and producing fear induced co-operation.
The liberal- left media ( and indeed much of the right wing media) may have decided this is acceptable, but I ( always voted Labour or Lib dem) don’t.
But the lesson learned is that they did it all once, and they can do it again .

I mentioned only that 'The Daily Skeptic' is a conspiracy site where you can find disinformation about climate change 'and Covid vaccines' (which it is). Anyone who regards it as a reliable source of information is being sadly misled. I don't recognise your picture of 'fear induced co-operation' about information and statistics you regard as dubious (and I probably don't agree with you about which information was dubious). Certainly there was a lot of misinformation and disinformation being peddled by antivaxers and 'Covid contrarians', who seemed to have little difficulty in getting their toxic message out, despite the efforts of the more responsible social media companies and broadcasters to stop the spread of particularly dangerous forms of nonsense, like the baseless fears that were used by some grifters to persuade vulnerable pregnant women to refuse vaccination. This stuff cost lives, especially when it was amplified for political reasons, as in the US.

Sometimes official information was revised (not always quickly enough) as our understanding of the virus evolved - using N95 masks turned out to be much more useful than just hand washing, for example (as South Korea could could have told us all along). Early on, there was too much reliance on a 'flu plan' because successive governments had not done the work to learn the lessons from SARS and MERS - community testing was abandoned prematurely, then hurriedly resumed, and there were few serious attempts to limit transmission or trace contacts before lockdown. Sometimes the Government, while claiming always to 'follow the science', ignored its scientific advisors, e.g., when choosing to believe the 'herd immunity' crowd in autumn 2020 instead of SAGE, who recommended an earlier circuit-breaker lockdown, and later on 'freedom day' when all restrictions (including masking in crowded places) were prematurely abandoned at a time of relatively high transmission, for largely political reasons.

I certainly agree we need a properly thought out plan for next time, or rather a range of plans depending on which of several plausible threats we might face.

[oddoneout]

I certainly agree we need a properly thought out plan for next time, or rather a range of plans depending on which of several plausible threats we might face.

It's not just a case of having a plan though. That was how the UK got a good rating for pandemic preparedness in a(I think UN) survey; there was a plan that looked good on paper, but only the tick boxes were considered, not whether there was any physical substance to those ticks. As it turned out there wasn't. There was not the capacity within local authority and health services to implement the tickbox actions, and the maintenance of such such things as PPE stocks was (incorrectly )assumed as happening, but not verified.
From 2015 there were seven exercises modelling pandemic events, including Exercise Alice in 2016 which specifically considered a Corona-virus situation. They were not acted on. And that is the sticking point - having a plan is only part of the solution and if politicians choose not to act on that plan then it isn't even that.
The BMA highlighted this in its submission to a parliamentary committee

Key recommendations from pandemic planning exercises were ignored.

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/119761/html/

[Retune]

It's not just a case of having a plan though. That was how the UK got a good rating for pandemic preparedness in a(I think UN) survey; there was a plan that looked good on paper, but only the tick boxes were considered, not whether there was any physical substance to those ticks. As it turned out there wasn't. There was not the capacity within local authority and health services to implement the tickbox actions, and the maintenance of such such things as PPE stocks was (incorrectly )assumed as happening, but not verified.

It's almost as if relying on your pub landlord to sort this stuff out isn't best practice.

[Retune]

Just came across this excellent article on the 'lab leak' theory, in a place where I wouldn't expect to read anything of the kind. I know that several people in this thread lean in that direction - this article might just give you pause for thought:

https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

[Bryn]

Just came across this excellent article on the 'lab leak' theory, in a place where I wouldn't expect to read anything of the kind. I know that several people in this thread lean in that direction - this article might just give you pause for thought:

https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

Thanks for linking to this. A sober consideration of the issues, indeed.

[french frank]

Thanks for linking to this. A sober consideration of the issues, indeed.

I shall study it with interest. I note Quillette is described as "Iibertarian-leaning" and "the right wing's highly influential answer to Slate". Which actually makes it particularly interesting …

[Retune]

I shall study it with interest. I note Quillette is described as "Iibertarian-leaning" and "the right wing's highly influential answer to Slate". Which actually makes it particularly interesting …

Yes, it is interesting to see it there. It serves a community that has been quite receptive to 'lab leak' theories, who might be more inclined to dismiss (or never read) something published in Slate or the Guardian. But I think the article can be judged on its own merits.

[Bryn]

Covid and flu vaccinations booked for a week tomorrow. Not, however, at the Waitrose Sports and Social Club, this time, but at a venue on the same industrial estate but considerably further from the nearest bus route. The half-hour walk from the town centre will probably be quicker. As privatisation of the NHS continues, it is organised by "Berkshire Primary Care Ltd", whose website is marked as untrustworthy by WOT.

[Serial_Apologist]

Covid and flu vaccinations booked for a week tomorrow. Not, however, at the Waitrose Sports and Social Club, this time, but at a venue on the same industrial estate but considerably further from the nearest bus route. The half-hour walk from the town centre will probably be quicker. As privatisation of the NHS continues, it is organised by "Berkshire Primary Care Ltd", whose website is marked as untrustworthy by WOT.

Not so good then. Nothing so far in our district this autumn regarding flu/covid jabs

[Bryn]

Not so good then. Nothing so far in our district this autumn regarding flu/covid jabs

The walk from the bus station in the town centre took just 20 minutes, in the event. The weather was warm and sunny. I arrived 10 minutes early and was directed straight away to receive both vaccinations. I was on my way back home before the appointed time to arrive. No vaccination card, this time but a 4-page leaflet listing a wide range of possible side-effects for the "Comirnaty Original/Omicron BA.4-5 (15/15 micrograms)/dose dispersion for injection for injection . . . tozinameran/fantozinameran" COVID booster. I have experienced no side effects beyond very minor sensitivity at the injection sites from previous COVID vaccinations, and, so far, the same applies this time.

Also noted in the leaflet was an "increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis . . . " along with alerts to the likely symptoms, and advice to immediately seek medical attention, should such symptoms be experienced. Despite the adjuration to read the full leaflet before proceeding to be administered the vaccine, no time was given to do so, though a brief verbal question and answer session aimed at adducing likely sensitivity was conducted immediately prior to administering the vaccination itself. Ah well, fingers crossed.

No update to the vaccination record on my Patient Access account, as yet.

[Serial_Apologist]

The walk from the bus station in the town centre took just 20 minutes, in the event. The weather was warm and sunny. I arrived 10 minutes early and was directed straight away to receive both vaccinations. I was on my way back home before the appointed time to arrive. No vaccination card, this time but a 4-page leaflet listing a wide range of possible side-effects for the "Comirnaty Original/Omicron BA.4-5 (15/15 micrograms)/dose dispersion for injection for injection . . . tozinameran/fantozinameran" COVID booster. I have experienced no side effects beyond very minor sensitivity at the injection sites from previous COVID vaccinations, and, so far, the same applies this time.

Also noted in the leaflet was an "increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis . . . " along with alerts to the likely symptoms, and advice to immediately seek medical attention, should such symptoms be experienced. Despite the adjuration to read the full leaflet before proceeding to be administered the vaccine, no time was given to do so, though a brief verbal question and answer session aimed at adducing likely sensitivity was conducted immediately prior to administering the vaccination itself. Ah well, fingers crossed.

No update to the vaccination record on my Patient Access account, as yet.

My practice rang me this morning and vaccination was arranged for Saturday morning. I think he said both for covid and flu. I'll be asking about a vaccination card if not given one, given that I carry all the previous cards that have been issued to me in my wallet as proof that I've been done, and the number of times, which I tend to forget.