Coronavirus

[french frank]

so how doe Zoe know which is a cold and which is an obviously mild form of Covid.

Initially, I don't suppose they do. But giving them the test might be a way to decide the matter, rather than just deciding it isn't and turning them away?

[Frances_iom]

It might be worth watching the programme, ....

No TV - but also currently no animal reservoir found other than an assumed bat as the Wuhan lab was known to be collecting samples from Bat infested caves - re the lab escape there was a recent interview on R4 not specifically re Wuhan but the speaker stated en passant that the lab escape was looking more likely quoting the behaviour of the Chinese treatment of the investigators and also it seems the WHO head has become much more critical of the Chinese.

[Bryn]

No TV - but also currently no animal reservoir found other than an assumed bat as the Wuhan lab was known to be collecting samples from Bat infested caves - re the lab escape there was a recent interview on R4 not specifically re Wuhan but the speaker stated en passant that the lab escape was looking more likely quoting the behaviour of the Chinese treatment of the investigators and also it seems the WHO head has become much more critical of the Chinese.

The programme does not rule out the possibility of a lab leak. It does, however, make it clear that in the consensus view of those directly involved in researching its origin, it remains of low likelihood compared with other potential sources. The more critical attitude of the W.H.O. towards China's level of cooperation was made clear in the programme.

[Simon B]

so how doe Zoe know which is a cold and which is an obviously mild form of Covid.

My understanding is the answer is - PCR tests of all (or possibly now only a carefully randomised statistically significant sample due to the sheer numbers) Zoe contributors reporting symptoms, provided or instigated by Zoe themselves. Here, symptoms mean the ones defined by Zoe, not the "official" subset.

Their hypotheses and models are thus being confirmed and calibrated with real data, in quantity.

It is of note that the recent apparent fall in the official infection rate is strongly correlated with a corresponding fall in testing. I.e., it may be another illusion which actually demonstrates that it is half term - and not much else. Meanwhile, the Zoe data shows it continuing to climb almost linearly with only a hint of the gradient falling. Time will tell which is right...

[Frances_iom]

...The more critical attitude of the W.H.O. towards China's level of cooperation was made clear in the programme.

I have a simple 'biblical' attitude to Organisations - "by their actions they shall be known" and in almost every respect over the last few years the Chinese Government fails the credibility test.

[Bryn]

I have a simple 'biblical' attitude to Organisations - "by their actions they shall be known" and in almost every respect over the last few years the Chinese Government fails the credibility test.

For me, the Chinese PLA's short-term incursion into Vietnam in 1979 was a major turning point in the credibility of China's leadership. Things have deteriorated a lot further since then but that does not alter the consensus view represented in the programme.

[duncan]

so how doe Zoe know which is a cold and which is an obviously mild form of Covid.

They contact app users - like me - who report some of the dozens of symptoms they are interested in and ask them to get a PCR test. Which I did (positive last December, negative this June and October). In this way the can build a picture of which symptom are most likely to represent a Covid diagnosis. One result was that loss of taste was added to the list of likely to be significant symptoms. With 100s of thousands of data points you can make a good estimate of the likelihood of a particular set of symptoms - say headache, loss of smell and severe fatigue - is to represent someone with Covid. Now you can reverse the process so you can look at the symptoms being reported and estimate the proportion of Covid-positives in the folk reporting.

The biggest challenge and probably the greatest source of error for the modellers is to judge how representative people who have downloaded the Zoe app. are of the wider population.

[Frances_iom]

... Meanwhile, the Zoe data shows it continuing to climb almost linearly with only a hint of the gradient falling. Time will tell which is right...

a linear growth needs some explanation in a pandemic - expansion of a disease into a virgin population would be exponential tho as immunity builds up the growth exponent should reduce - a linear trend suggests some other mechanism is at play - maybe a waning of immunity but my money is on some bias in measurements.

[Dave2002]

A kind of update review from Nature - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03003-6

It's not all over yet.

[Serial_Apologist]

A kind of update review from Nature - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03003-6

It's not all over yet.

But the article seems cautiously optimistic over the Pfizer booster jab keeping Covid sufferers safe from dying and out of hospital. I'm still trying to make up my mind about attending three events at the London Jazz Festival, starting with one at the RFH this afternoon.

[subcontrabass]

a linear growth needs some explanation in a pandemic - expansion of a disease into a virgin population would be exponential tho as immunity builds up the growth exponent should reduce - a linear trend suggests some other mechanism is at play - maybe a waning of immunity but my money is on some bias in measurements.

Linear growth is exponential with a zero exponent. It is the bridge point between growing and declining.

[Serial_Apologist]

Linear growth is exponential with a zero exponent. It is the bridge point between growing and declining.

Well I suppose if you are going to infect lots of people, you need to start from somewhere!

[LeMartinPecheur]

Further 'incentive' to get vaccinated, in Germany at least (courtesy of the Spectator)

Quote of the day

‘Euthanasia is only for vaccinated and recovered people.’

The German Euthanasia Association’s new guidance on who is allowed to access euthanasia services.

HOSTS: please feel free to shift this to Favourite Jokes thread if it lowers the tone here too much.

[oddoneout]

Further 'incentive' to get vaccinated, in Germany at least (courtesy of the Spectator)

Quote of the day

‘Euthanasia is only for vaccinated and recovered people.’

The German Euthanasia Association’s new guidance on who is allowed to access euthanasia services.

HOSTS: please feel free to shift this to Favourite Jokes thread if it lowers the tone here too much.

Well I suppose that if you are required to be compos mentis to make decisions about ending a life that would extend to making the correct decision re vaccination?

[Sir Velo]

Further 'incentive' to get vaccinated, in Germany at least (courtesy of the Spectator)

Quote of the day

‘Euthanasia is only for vaccinated and recovered people.’

The German Euthanasia Association’s new guidance on who is allowed to access euthanasia services.

HOSTS: please feel free to shift this to Favourite Jokes thread if it lowers the tone here too much.

Of course, if you believe the German Health Minister, by refusing vaccination you are essentially committing suicide anyway, so the same end result.