Coronavirus

[johnb]

I also fail to see how it supports his statement "The great majority died of something other than the virus"

It doesn't.

However in the NHS England data that he provided a link to, there is sheet that gives details of the underlying health conditions and I wonder whether that is what has referring to (he was rather vague). The most significant of those underlying conditions is diabetes with 26% of the people who died in NHS England hospitals suffering from it. But that doesn't mean that they didn't die from Covid-19.

[Simon B]

Try this. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...total-archive/

From which no broader deduction can be legitimately drawn absent context, i.e. without enumerating key a-priori statistics that googling can also establish in short order.

"About 26 million people in England have at least one Long Term Medical Condition": Not far off 50% of the entire population of all ages.

"One in 14 people in the UK have diabetes"

"Around 7.6 million people in the UK have heart disease".

"Respiratory disease affects 1 in 5 people in the UK"

"Around 14 million people in the UK have clinically significant hypertension"

So it is true that a large proportion of people whose deaths have been attributed to or hastened by Covid had a pre-existing medical condition. This would be a statistical inevitability given that such a huge proportion of the population have same, even if there were no correlation between underlying condition and Covid risk. The proportion of older (which doesn't have to mean anything like 80+) people with such conditions but also plenty of life expectancy absent Covid approaches 100%.


Meanwhile: Explain away the excess death curves for the last 18 months vs 5 year and long term averages. V easy to get welters of stuff from the ONS and the like.

"2020 saw most excess deaths since World War Two in the UK" is the most succinct distillation. And that's in the presence of hugely costly and disruptive countermeasures.

Either these are all due to the adverse consequences of lockdowns etc (plausible but highly unlikely) or something like a communicable disease is responsible. There's a remote possibility that it will all come out in the statistical wash in the longer term with an equal but opposite dip in all-cause mortality but this looks less likely by the day.

[Anastasius]

The ineptitude of this Government in not managing the Covid crisis never ceases to amaze me. Looking at the TV footage from Newcastle yesterday on the BBC, it was obvious that the K-Doze were out in force. So Boris, here's what you should have done.

Rather than open so many things at the same time thus guaranteeing the scenes on TV, you open on Monday, pubs only. Tuesday - shops whose names start with A-D, Wed - restaurants, Thursday - shops whose name start with E-F etc. It's not rocket-science.

And if you are going to instigate blocks on incoming flights from some countries, you don't advertise it and give x days notice. You damn well do it overnight.

[mikealdren]

They tried the nuanced rules and were told it was too complicated and they tried some immediate rules and were told that 'we need time to make the changes'. There are some areas where the government seemingly can't win.

[Frances_iom]

And if you are going to instigate blocks on incoming flights from some countries, you don't advertise it and give x days notice. You damn well do it overnight.

Judging from the less than nuanced contributions from the medical side I can see allowing general foreign travel this summer to be highly reckless - there is a strong suggestion that the Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to current vaccines and existing antibodies deriving from previous infections - it was the half term ski holidays in early 2020 that seeded covid19 all over the UK - the government needs to come out now and announce it.

[Pulcinella]

I have just been invited to participate in the UK Biobank Coronavirus self-test antibody study.

Is anyone else here a participant in UK Biobank?

[eighthobstruction]

I have just been invited to participate in the UK Biobank Coronavirus self-test antibody study.

Is anyone else here a participant in UK Biobank?

...yes....they just send you a kit and courier collects....result a few days later....minimum fuss....

[eighthobstruction]

....if ever there was in the 'know' it is LOrd David King....https://www.theguardian.com/politics...hief-scientist

[Pulcinella]

...yes....they just send you a kit and courier collects....result a few days later....minimum fuss....

This looks like something a bit different:

Use the finger-prick device to produce a small drop of blood;
Put a drop of blood on the test stick and add 2 drops of the liquid provided;
Your results will be shown on the test stick in about 20 minutes;

You then log on to the site to report the result.

[vinteuil]

I have just been invited to participate in the UK Biobank Coronavirus self-test antibody study.

Is anyone else here a participant in UK Biobank?

... my wife did her bit - six months, I think. Monthly finger-prick blood tests, they send the kit which you return in the post.

A good thing to do if minded for the greater social good, I would have thought?

.

[Serial_Apologist]

No stupid pricks on this forum then!

[duncan]

So it is true that a large proportion of people whose deaths have been attributed to or hastened by Covid had a pre-existing medical condition. This would be a statistical inevitability given that such a huge proportion of the population have same, even if there were no correlation between underlying condition and Covid risk. The proportion of older (which doesn't have to mean anything like 80+) people with such conditions but also plenty of life expectancy absent Covid approaches 100%.


Meanwhile: Explain away the excess death curves for the last 18 months vs 5 year and long term averages. V easy to get welters of stuff from the ONS and the like.

"2020 saw most excess deaths since World War Two in the UK" is the most succinct distillation. And that's in the presence of hugely costly and disruptive countermeasures.

Either these are all due to the adverse consequences of lockdowns etc (plausible but highly unlikely) or something like a communicable disease is responsible. There's a remote possibility that it will all come out in the statistical wash in the longer term with an equal but opposite dip in all-cause mortality but this looks less likely by the day.

A good epidemiologist will triangulate - use several different methods to estimate the result - to minimise biases. The More or Less podcast linked above covers this well. This is seemingly lost on those that became medical statisticians in March 2020.

I have just been invited to participate in the UK Biobank Coronavirus self-test antibody study.

Is anyone else here a participant in UK Biobank?

Also a biobanker (others have called me something similar). I've signed-up for the antibody study but have not yet received my kit.

[duncan]

I’m aware I’ve posted rather a lot on a non-musical thread. Hopefully this is the last for a while and it’s a positive one.

The Com-Cov study on mix-and-matching vaccines is expanding and looking for people over 50 who've already had one vaccine. This may apply to a few here.

You're blinded as to which second vaccine you get but there's no placebo group so no-one misses out.

The researchers are hoping that you get a better immune response or increased protection using a combination of different vaccines. Even if this is not found, increased flexibility would make it easier to get everyone vaccinated in as timely a manner as possible.

https://comcovstudy.org.uk/

[Hitch]

11.8% of the UK's population has received a second inoculation. Interestingly, and most frustratingly, on my first trip to the high street in a very long time the ratio of maskless to masked was approximately the reverse at 10:1. Even a policeman patrolling the pavement went uncovered. I have my fingers crossed, but this does not bode well.

[Frances_iom]

11.8% of the UK's population has received a second inoculation. Interestingly, and most frustratingly, on my first trip to the high street in a very long time the ratio of maskless to masked was approximately the reverse at 10:1. Even a policeman patrolling the pavement went uncovered. I have my fingers crossed, but this does not bode well.

My understanding is that masks are only required in closed spaces (eg inside shops) or where social distancing is not possible - otherwise the mask offers little or no benefit - many of the 'fancy' masks are I suspect also fairly useless as compared with the standard surgical mask.