Coronavirus

[johnb]

There is an article on the Guardian website saying that the reason that the hospitalisations and deaths have continued to decline while the reported CV-19 has stabilised is due to the effect of the vaccine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/covid-why-has-the-fall-in-uk-infection-rate-stalled-despite-vaccinations

I have no argument with that but there is another factor which the article ignores.

If you look at the cases by age group for England you find that the cases have continued to decline in people aged 20 and over but have shown a significant upward trend in the 0-19 age group.

The increase in the 0-19 age group is obviously linked to schools reopening and to the massive number of lateral flow tests carried out on schools. (In the w/e 17th March 74% of all lateral flow tests were carried out at secondary schools and colleges.)

The latest data shows.

Age	7 days to 23 Mar 
Group	vs 7 days to 16 Mar

0-19	+25%
20-39	 -9%
40-59	-10%
60+	-24%

Charts:

https://app.box.com/s/lhf72ue0hfe2l1ya2bixgilvl91r1387

https://app.box.com/s/07wfd703ttom5572kj7u875rbkn7xspk

https://app.box.com/s/9qaopfkzkofga5ligutt9r688qamvjwu

[Frances_iom]

are these just positive tests (real or false) or are they actual cases as confirmed by a full test?
If the latter then given the infectivity of the Kent variety I would expect to see significant infection in parents and siblings following on.

[johnb]

are these just positive tests (real or false) or are they actual cases as confirmed by a full test?
If the latter then given the infectivity of the Kent variety I would expect to see significant infection in parents and siblings following on.

Good question, they are the positive tests (real or false) reported on the government dashboard, so they will be a mix of PCR only, Lateral Flow only and Lateral Flow confirmed by PCR (in the latter case only first test in counted in the figures, if my memory serves me correctly).

[Bryn]

Horrific news regarding the latest variant in Brazil. Mortality rates escalating quasi-exponentially, and it's hitting the young, too.

[Frances_iom]

Horrific news regarding the latest variant in Brazil. Mortality rates escalating quasi-exponentially, and it's hitting the young, too.

reference? the Spanish flu of 1918-1920 hit young fit adults by over-provoking the body's immune response

[Bryn]

reference? the Spanish flu of 1918-1920 hit young fit adults by over-provoking the body's immune response

Channel 4 News report from Brazil this evening. As to over-provoking the immune response, that is also a characteristic of SARS-CoV-2 which was recognised as early as a year ago, which was why immunosuppressants became part of the treatment regime for severe cases of COVID-19.

[teamsaint]

Here’s a little puzzle.

The link has lots of graphs, including one for first vaccinations by for over 50s age group, by region. In every geographical area there is a blip, in that rates drop a bit in each age group except the 60-64 group, where they are higher than the 65 -69 group.

https://www.gponline.com/uk-covid-19-vaccination-programme-tracker/article/1704726

Seems odd.

[subcontrabass]

Here’s a little puzzle.

The link has lots of graphs, including one for first vaccinations by for over 50s age group, by region. In every geographical area there is a blip, in that rates drop a bit in each age group except the 60-64 group, where they are higher than the 65 -69 group.

https://www.gponline.com/uk-covid-19-vaccination-programme-tracker/article/1704726

Seems odd.

One problem is that the ONS estimates of the population in each age group seeem to be unreliable (and they are out of date, being for mid-2019). For example, the number vaccinated in the 75-59 age group is greater than the total estimated population, so the population estimate there is clearly wrong. .

[oddoneout]

Here’s a little puzzle.

The link has lots of graphs, including one for first vaccinations by for over 50s age group, by region. In every geographical area there is a blip, in that rates drop a bit in each age group except the 60-64 group, where they are higher than the 65 -69 group.

https://www.gponline.com/uk-covid-19-vaccination-programme-tracker/article/1704726

Seems odd.

Something that happened in my immediate area that I am aware of was that quite a lot of the 65-69 group(including me) ended up waiting for local jabs(due to problems accessing regional hubs) which for various reasons were slow coming, but when the next group was given the go-ahead they took advantage of the regional hubs and so (legitimately) leapfrogged ahead in numbers.

[teamsaint]

Something that happened in my immediate area that I am aware of was that quite a lot of the 65-69 group(including me) ended up waiting for local jabs(due to problems accessing regional hubs) which for various reasons were slow coming, but when the next group was given the go-ahead they took advantage of the regional hubs and so (legitimately) leapfrogged ahead in numbers.

I did wonder if transport issue might be a big part of it.
Not much problem getting an appointment round here for anybody over 50 , it has to be said.

[cloughie]

A question for Micky D
We hear of the current high Covid rate in France - what is the Arlesienne situation?

[Pianorak]

Reading this article makes me wonder what the implications are. What does the medical profession make of it?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.03.21251066v1.full

Results - While the majority of participants in both groups produced specific IgG antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, titers were significantly lower in elderly participants. Although the increment of antibody levels after the second immunization was higher in elderly participants, the absolute mean titer of this group remained lower than the <60 group. After the second vaccination, 31.3 % of the elderly had no detectable neutralizing antibodies in contrast to the younger group, in which only 2.2% had no detectable neutralizing antibodies.
Conclusion - Our data suggests that lower frequencies of neutralizing antibodies after BNT162b2 vaccination in the elderly population may require earlier revaccination to ensure strong immunity and protection against infection.

[teamsaint]

Here’s another curiosity.

Penultimate paragraph in this Nature article suggests that Covid “ is probably not less transmissible than flu.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

Which is not at all in line with what we have been told.

[johnb]

Here’s another curiosity.

Penultimate paragraph in this Nature article suggests that Covid “ is probably not less transmissible than flu.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

Which is not at all in line with what we have been told.

An interesting article, though the author, Christie Aschwanden, is credited as being a science journalist rather than a scientist.

In the penultimate para he quotes a certain Samuel Scarpino as saying

“Influenza is probably not less transmissible than COVID-19,” Scarpino says. “Almost certainly, the reason why flu did not show up this year is because we typically have about 30% of the population immune because they’ve been infected in previous years, and you get vaccination covering maybe another 30%. So you’re probably sitting at 60% or so immune.” Add mask wearing and social distancing, and “the flu just can’t make it”

The reasons I highlighted in bold are not unique to this year - they apply to every flue season. What is unique to this flue season has been the lockdown and IMO this the main reason why influenza has been largely absent this year.

All the reports and papers that I have looked at have come to the conclusion that SARS-Cov-2 has a higher R₀ than seasonal influenza.

[cloughie]

An interesting article, though the author, Christie Aschwanden, is credited as being a science journalist rather than a scientist.

In the penultimate para he quotes a certain Samuel Scarpino as saying



The reasons I highlighted in bold are not unique to this year - they apply to every flue season. What is unique to this flue season has been the lockdown and IMO this the main reason that influenza has been largely absent this year.

All the reports and papers that I have looked at have come to the conclusion that SARS-Cov-2 has a higher R₀ than seasonal influenza.

I suspect also there was less flu because people didn’t go out and catch or spread it.