Coronavirus

[oddoneout]

In the US the J&J single shot vaccine has now been approved - https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/h...d8d20e9b57a66b

This seems to be good news. I don't know how that particular vaccine differs from the others, other than it's currently intended as a single shot jab. Again, I don't know whether the UK is getting that one - I'm starting to lose track. Even if this doesn't help the UK directly, reducing problems in other countries must surely be a good thing.

I realise it's not rational, but my first reaction to the news was "good thing it's in America"; one Johnson is bad enough but the thought of two Johnsons, and injected, turns my stomach...

[Bryn]

I realise it's not rational, but my first reaction to the news was "good thing it's in America"; one Johnson is bad enough but the thought of two Johnsons, and injected, turns my stomach...

Careful how you search for such concepts on the Internet.

[oddoneout]

Careful how you search for such concepts on the Internet.

Oh I think I'll leave that to cartoonists...

[Cockney Sparrow]

As I suspect we will see on Weds at the Budget we cannot as a country afford the lockdown - the key decision is when the hospitalisation/death numbers become acceptable - the number of covid cases will be allowed to increase as long as the former remain acceptable - the catch is the non-vaccinated over 50s will be key due to their numbers in working population as work seems now to be main infection cause even tho they have a lower chance of bad covid - especially when the non-vaccinated BAME numbers truly dominate at which point I suspect the majority will say damn they had their chance now they risk it - too bad for them.

I have to accept that we can't afford to continue lockdown or go back to total lockdown again. There are definitely harms to be balanced against Covid hospitalisations and mortality. Not to mention the concerns about the loss of liberty and powers handed to a government of the lowest standing for many a decade.

So, I need to make my arrangements, put my affairs in order, exercise due caution and take my chance. Politicians in power, present and past, don't want to answer difficult questions like:

The Times - Thursday February 18 2021 : ‘Define an acceptable level of Covid deaths’

And don't want to be accosted by outraged bereaved relatives when out and about with TV crews in attendance (on their way to demolishing polystyrene walls, etc).

I'm expecting fudge and dissembling but I think we need to assume more risk - and balance them, ourselves. Having had the vaccine, I have to be aware, there is an unknown chance that I would be one of ?14% for whom the vaccine doesn't work. Even if it does, I might be disabled by long covid........

[johnb]

During today's press conference a slide was shown of comparing the decline of deaths of people over 80 with those under 80. I thought a more detailed version that I have been maintaining might be of interest to some people:


I understand that Matt Hancock said that hospital admissions were declining at a faster rate amongst the older age group (presumably he meant the over 80s.)

This is a chart showing the decline in hospital admissions:


Both the charts use the data that was published today.

The difference between the over 80s and the younger age groups is significant but I confess that I would have expected it to be greater (no doubt that is due to my lack of understanding). On the other hand, all through Phase 1 of the vaccination programme around 40% of the first doses jobs went to the under 70s, presumably those at higher risk, i.e. the health and care workers, and the medically vulnerable. It is likely that those under 70 at risk groups who have been given the jab would otherwise have been over represented in hospital admissions and deaths - so their vaccination is likely to have had a noticeable (?) impact on the under 70s admissions and deaths.

In the hospital admissions chart, I find it puzzling how there is very little difference in the rate of decline between the over 85s and the 65-84s.

[Dave2002]

People living in Scotland, or wanting (eventually) to visit might find this website tool useful/interesting - https://www.travellingtabby.com/scot...virus-tracker/

Actually there is also a version for England - and indeed the whole of the UK - https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

These tools were originally developed by a blogger in Scotland - https://www.travellingtabby.com/about/

[Cockney Sparrow]

On a quick look, it's a drawing together of Covid (& related info). Thanks, it looks good and I'll look in detail for the English one first - as we are bound to remain at home in the Home Counties for several more weeks.
I assume Visit Scotland have a very vested interest in keeping the regulations on crossing the Border up to date, promptly. I check there for the prospects of visiting. Sturgeon, it looks likely, will de-restrict us troublesome Sasssenachs later than the mid-April intra English tourism "earliest date".

[Dave2002]

It's not dissimilar to the pages which johnb has been presenting and maintaining - but maybe gives a slightly different viewpoint in some aspects. Some while back I was reasonably OK with going into shops, but when this latest "bump" flared up we became much more cautious, and I've been waiting for the levels to drop back down to or below the levels when I felt it safe enough to go out before considering actually walking into any shop. Having had one dose of a vaccine probably gives me more confidence, but biology is odd, so I'm maybe going to wait a while longer before going out shopping again. If there are no more big changes in biology one could expect levels to go down to "acceptable" in a few months - but that assumes that nothing else goes wrong. After all, before the CV19 business kicked off hardly anybody was going to predict that something "big" was about to happen.

[Serial_Apologist]

It's not dissimilar to the pages which johnb has been presenting and maintaining - but maybe gives a slightly different viewpoint in some aspects. Some while back I was reasonably OK with going into shops, but when this latest "bump" flared up we became much more cautious, and I've been waiting for the levels to drop back down to or below the levels when I felt it safe enough to go out before considering actually walking into any shop. Having had one does of a vaccine probably gives me more confidence, but biology is odd, so I'm maybe going to wait a while longer before going out shopping again. If there are no more big changes in biology one could expect levels to go down to "acceptable" in a few months - but that assumes that nothing else goes wrong. After all, before the CV19 business kicked off hardly anybody was going to predict that something "big" was about to happen.

Me too Dave. For some months now I've been resorting to wearing two face masks when entering shops. The main drawbacks are twofold: the first being that doubling the protection makes one less intelligible to counter staff; the second that two masks dampen up considerably faster than one, making the procedure doubly unpleasant.

[Frances_iom]

Interesting action by Italy blocking the export of the Astra-Zenica vaccine to Australia - the vaccine was denigrated by the European regulators and the Germans are apparently holding 1.2M doses that they can't persuade their population to accept thanks to the inept (+ in my opinion malicious) statements issued a couple of months ago both in France + Germany - maybe the Germans could make a gift of their stock to the Italians.

As elsewhere I expect relations with the EU to descend yet further - even whilst UK was a member the Services aspect of the market was never truly open and there is I suspect little expectation that the EU will willing open up anything to the Brits - the NI agreement was badly thought thru by BJ + mates - totally unworkable and its prime purpose was to force re-unification by making NI's link to UK so cumbersome + costly that there is no other option.

[LHC]

Interesting action by Italy blocking the export of the Astra-Zenica vaccine to Australia - the vaccine was denigrated by the European regulators and the Germans are apparently holding 1.2M doses that they can't persuade their population to accept thanks to the inept (+ in my opinion malicious) statements issued a couple of months ago both in France + Germany - maybe the Germans could make a gift of their stock to the Italians.

As elsewhere I expect relations with the EU to descend yet further - even whilst UK was a member the Services aspect of the market was never truly open and there is I suspect little expectation that the EU will willing open up anything to the Brits - the NI agreement was badly thought thru by BJ + mates - totally unworkable and its prime purpose was to force re-unification by making NI's link to UK so cumbersome + costly that there is no other option.

Italy has the same problems with vaccine acceptance as France and Germany, and has only used 20% of the AZ vaccines it has been provided with thus far. It still has over 400,000 unused AZ vaccines so this embargo on exports to Australia is a purely political act that has no relation with vaccine shortages.

In the longer term, this makes it likely that pharma companies will now be reluctant to invest in manufacturing facilities in Italy. It could also have a dangerous knock on effect to supply chains for vaccine ingredients if other countries decide to retaliate, or withhold vital supplies.

It is also ironic that the EU, having spent most of last year lecturing the rest of the world on the dangers of vaccine nationalism should be the first to make use of vaccine nationalism to prevent supplies to another country.

[Frances_iom]

..It is also ironic that the EU, having spent most of last year lecturing the rest of the world on the dangers of vaccine nationalism should be the first to make use of vaccine nationalism to prevent supplies to another country.

What the EU preaches is no longer what the EU practices - recall they were very happy to impose the 'politically unacceptable' border check in NI to prevent supposed export of vaccine to the UK.

[Dave2002]

Here is a graphic representation of a sub-poulation of the USA - https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...2021&utm_term=

This does tend to reinforce the view that the dominating factor in hospitalisation and death is age, and actually ethnicity and other "obvious" factors have relatively little impact.

However, in Washington state, there are moves to have teachers vaccinated, though maybe the economics and supply chains are different. Perhaps teachers are required to pay for the jabs themselves - I really don't know. Maybe that's something which happens in the US - but currently in the UK the route to vaccination is via the NHS, which offers and supplies the jabs free of charge to the population at large.

Is there an issue in the UK with illegal immigrants, who may not be on the NHS radar? I don't want a witch hunt against such people, but they might cause problems in some parts if they contract the virus.
A "no questions asked" policy might be helpful for them. Maybe it's not a problem?

[LeMartinPecheur]

Here is a graphic representation of a sub-poulation of the USA - https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...2021&utm_term=

This does tend to reinforce the view that the dominating factor in hospitalisation and death is age, and actually ethnicity and other "obvious" factors have relatively little impact.

News this morning that the absolutely top marker for Covid deaths all round the world is OBESITY https://www.aol.co.uk/news/obesity-d...083544620.html

Works both ways: countries like Japan with low average BMI have lowest death rates. Except among Sumo wrestlers I guess

[johnb]

News this morning that the absolutely top marker for Covid deaths all round the world is OBESITY https://www.aol.co.uk/news/obesity-d...083544620.html

Works both ways: countries like Japan with low average BMI have lowest death rates. Except among Sumo wrestlers I guess

Be very careful - correlation is not causation.

The article contrasts the death rates in South Korea and Japan with those in the USA and the UK but I suggest the most significant factor is that South Korea and Japan dealt with Covid-19 much more systematically and effectively from an early stage, in stark contrast to how the pandemic was managed in the USA and UK.

As far as I know, all the research shows that age remains by far the most significant risk factor. (Coincidentally, being a man doesn't exactly help.)