Coronavirus

[Dave2002]

I hope I'm not being a nuisance in posting yet another graphic. Please tell me to stop if that is the case.

The Covid-19 maps of Cases/100k show us the situation at a point in time, based on the confirmed cases.

This is great work - please keep it up. Does it take long to do, or does the computer do most of it? I imagine setting up the automation takes time, then it would be straightforward.

I live in a region which is worsening, from this graphic, but the incidence is (hopefully) stlll rather low. I guess it would get confusing to overload the single map with more data to indicate this, so maybe the rate change map needs to presented alongside the overall map.

[LHC]

Yes, great work John , as ever.

Meanwhile, an interesting story from Ireland.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/108161/allow-controlled-spread-coronavirus-among-under-60s-swedish-expert-tells-irish-government

It is fair to say that cases and death tates in Sweden are currently at levels we can only dream of.

On a per capita basis, Sweden's death rate is not that different to the UK's - 581 deaths per million for Sweden, 616 per million for the UK.

I'd much rather have Finland's figures. 93 new cases and just 2 deaths yesterday,. Only 343 deaths in total, and a per capita death rate of 62 per million. The impact on Finland's economy has been much less than in other European countries as well.

[teamsaint]

On a per capita basis, Sweden's death rate is not that different to the UK's - 581 deaths per million for Sweden, 616 per million for the UK.

I'd much rather have Finland's figures. 93 new cases and just 2 deaths yesterday,. Only 343 deaths in total, and a per capita death rate of 62 per million. The impact on Finland's economy has been much less than in other European countries as well.

Currently, and for the last few weeks, Sweden's death rates, let's say since the start of September are very low, zero or low single figures every day. And the Irish government aren't being advised by the Finland, which was the actual point.

And of course, the figure have to be treated with enormous caution, given, for instance the huge incidence of non covid excess deaths in the UK .

[french frank]

Currently, and for the last few weeks, Sweden's death rates, let's say since the start of September are very low, zero or low single figures every day.

The jury is still out over Sweden's experiment. Gaining 'herd immunity' was always a trade off with a high death rate, and Sweden's deaths have been a great deal higher than that of Finland, Norway and Denmark put together. They have also learned their harsh lesson, it seems, that care homes need special protection - not much comfort for those who have already lost relatives.

Death rates in most places dropped dramatically, lockdowns or, in their case, little lockdown. The test will come in the coming months. The US had no draconian lockdown: will their 200,000 and rising cases have been a vindication? Or Brazil's? Sweden wasn't alone in advocating a 'carry on as normal' policy.

The danger in a situation where no one really knows what will happen in reality (as distinct from theory), is that people will argue for the policy that suits them.

[teamsaint]

The jury is still out over Sweden's experiment. Gaining 'herd immunity' was always a trade off with a high death rate, and Sweden's deaths have been a great deal higher than that of Finland, Norway and Denmark put together. They have also learned their harsh lesson, it seems, that care homes need special protection - not much comfort for those who have already lost relatives.

Death rates in most places dropped dramatically, lockdowns or, in their case, little lockdown. The test will come in the coming months. The US had no draconian lockdown: will their 200,000 and rising cases have been a vindication? Or Brazil's? Sweden wasn't alone in advocating a 'carry on as normal' policy.

The danger in a situation where no one really knows what will happen in reality (as distinct from theory), is that people will argue for the policy that suits them.

Just to be clear, I'm not arguing for Sweden's policy, just flagging up a news item that mostly escaped popular attention. That said, we would love to have Sweden's problems ( or Finland's) right now. it is probably right to say that a consistent approach is a good way to proceed, as mentioned in the Guardian piece about how compliant the British actually are ( as compared to the press narrative) today.

Another issue , it seems to me, is that in Europe it isn't terribly obvious that a heavy duty approach to mask wearing in , for example, outdoor situations, is actually proving very successful . But of course, the story is more complicated than that.

[burning dog]

We need to follow Germany rather than Sweden according to these figures. The least infected of large European nations.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/

Herd immunity would lead to many people developing chronic illnesses with "long covid" and we don't yet know how much this can affect the young and/or mildly symptomatic. Misery for the patients and a great burden on the NHS

A "lighter" lockdown would have needed a far more effective Track and Trace system, run by local authorities and NHS Trusts, being "ready to go", similar to those that existed in the Far East.

South Korea re-imposed a light lockdown when their daily infection rate hit 400!

[Bryn]

Why, oh why was the NHS COVID-19 app not written to be compatible with older phones? A fair amount of coverage has been given in the press to its failure to work with iPhones 6 and earlier models. However, a similar failure applies to older versions of Android. My main phone is an original Sony Xperia Z. It cannot upgrade its O/S to versions later than Android 5.1.1. It fails the initial compatibility test prior to installation of the new app. Yet another indication of the incompetence at the heart of management of this health emergency.

[LHC]

Why, oh why was the NHS COVID-19 app not written to be compatible with older phones? A fair amount of coverage has been given in the press to its failure to work with iPhones 6 and earlier models. However, a similar failure applies to older versions of Android. My main phone is an original Sony Xperia Z. It cannot upgrade its O/S to versions later than Android 5.1.1. It fails the initial compatibility test prior to installation of the new app. Yet another indication of the incompetence at the heart of management of this health emergency.

As I understand it, it is the use of bluetooth, and the effect of this on battery life, that is the main reason for compatibility problems with older phones. This also appears to be an issue with other countries' apps as well. For example, the Australian app only works on phones with IOS 10.0 or above, and Android phones with 6.0 and above.

[Frances_iom]

The close encounter seems to rely on Bluetooth LTE - which is the low-energy, short-distance version that is totally incompatible with the original Bluetooth - the various early models are incapable by lack of necessary electronics to participate.

[french frank]

Meanwhile, Man's/People's Best Friend.

[Bryn]

The close encounter seems to rely on Bluetooth LTE - which is the low-energy, short-distance version that is totally incompatible with the original Bluetooth - the various early models are incapable by lack of necessary electronics to participate.

Ah well, I do also have a later Xperia ZX (2016) which can handle the app. However, that is on a very low cost (£1.06 per month) contract with low usage provision (300 minutes, 300MB, unlimited texts). When the purchase contract runs out in December I will swap the contract for that in the older phone which has much higher usage limits. The older phone will then become principally a handy pocket camera and audio playback device, though I will probably pop in a pay-as-you-go SIM for emergency use.

[Dave2002]

We need to follow Germany rather than Sweden according to these figures. The least infected of large European nations.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/

Herd immunity would lead to many people developing chronic illnesses with "long covid" and we don't yet know how much this can affect the young and/or mildly symptomatic. Misery for the patients and a great burden on the NHS

A "lighter" lockdown would have needed a far more effective Track and Trace system, run by local authorities and NHS Trusts, being "ready to go", similar to those that existed in the Far East.

South Korea re-imposed a light lockdown when their daily infection rate hit 400!

This tells a story - up to date - but it’s not the end. It’s still possible that Sweden might do better in the long term - though that’s currently looking like an act of faith.

The phrase "herd immunity" has started to come into common parlance, but what does it really mean? An epidemiologist might look at statistics and note that disease and death rates eventually start to drop as the number of cases reaches some threshold, often suggested as about 70% of the population size. However, there may be several mechanisms for this, and without looking further we may not know which apply.

If nothing else changes, other than that some people become infected, and then either recover or die, then the probability of any one individual having a problem subsequently is largely unchanged.

If most factors stay the same, other than that some people become infected, and then either recover or die, and those who recover are then less likely to succumb to the disease a second time, or pass it on to others, then the probability that a person who has not been infected will catch the disease decreases as there is less viral load in the community at large.

The outcomes for vulnerable people if they do catch the disease may still remain unwelcome - they don't have immunity, even though people talk about "herd immunity".

However, it is also possible that due to mutation of the virus, and also changes within the human population, that immune responses change. These could be favourable - with fewer seriously ill or dying patients, or less favourable. While it is often held that changes are likely to be favourable, there are cases in pandemics where it would appear that second waves of infection have had less happy outcomes.

So from an individual's point of view, someone who has not contracted the disease might be just as likely to suffer an adverse outcome as they were right at the start of the pandemic. We now know that this is likely to be men of advanced or advancing years. They will, however, be less likely to experience exposure, so in that sense the risks to them are lower, but this is only significant if a large proportion of the population have had the disease and survived it.

More understanding will probably emerge in time, and more data will be available and new analysis and explanations. While right now Sweden is not doing well compared to Germany, in the longer term - and this may be an act of faith - it is possible that it will do as well as or better than other countries. That is obviously what some epidemiologists in Sweden are counting on.

Chris Whitty himself mentioned around the start of the UK lockdown that it would only be after most of the problems had passed that we would be able to evaluate which strategies had worked, and that might be a few years down the road. This doesn't necessarily mean that lockdown policy is a "bad thing", as at least it might give some people a few more weeks or months or even years of useful (to them) life, even if by some other population measures it might seem less good. Right now we still do not know the best way forward for everybody, though we have a much better idea of this than six months ago.

My personal view is (following Sir Patrick Valance) that adopting a lockdown policy even a week earlier than the UK did, might have halved the number of deaths, but that's water under the bridge now.

When thinking about "herd immunity" perhaps think of a herd of wildebeeste in the presence of lions. Largely the herd will survive, but weaker members - often younger animals, or animals with illness, which can't outrun a lion, will not. So the "immunity" is not something which is passed on to members of the herd, but just represents how well the herd is able to survive a lion attack. We do need to have more understanding of what "herd immunity" might be for our current situation, and I think we still don't know enough.

[cloughie]

Ah well, I do also have a later Xperia ZX (2016) which can handle the app. However, that is on a very low cost (£1.06 per month) contract with low usage provision (300 minutes, 300MB, unlimited texts). When the purchase contract runs out in December I will swap the contract for that in the older phone which has much higher usage limits. The older phone will then become principally a handy pocket camera and audio playback device, though I will probably pop in a pay-as-you-go SIM for emergency use.

Not having a very clever phone I don’t feel I am missing out on this and settle for continuing to be careful and considerate!

[Dave2002]

Meanwhile, Man's/People's Best Friend.

This is not at all implausible, but would need more work to establish how well dogs can do in detecting this disease.

[Frances_iom]

This Oxford article does seem to suggest that a very high level of vaccination is required for 'herd immunity' to occur; or, I would assume, it doesn't occur because many people mingle and somehow their natural immune systems cope with the infection, rendering them thereafter 'immune'.

Have I understood this?

The answer is you need an immunisation fraction of 1-1/R where R is the expected number of infections from any 1 individual - if R is very high then this approaches 1 ie 100% immunisation - if R = 3 then you need 66% - the maths is just based on the probability that an infected person will find a non-immunised person to infect