Coronavirus

[french frank]

Is this fake news, or real? The guy does seem persuasive, and the data looks genuine enough - https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

Two points struck me:

1. The amount of interest there seemed to be among those who, like me, tried to establish without much success who this Ivor Cummins is

2. His attention focusing on Sweden (for obvious reasons) and given that he was pointing out the effect of differing climates (as between the north and the south of the Unitesd States and in Brazil and Mexico) why did he focus his graphs on Sweden and Italy/Spain? He mentioned Norway and Denmark (once each if I remember) but why did he not provide the graphs as between Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark, where Sweden still took a different approach?

That said there were interesting points which touch on what the President refers to as 'herd mentality'. The picture will be clearer (if anyone survives it) when the flu season has come and gone. But it seems likely that it will not immediately be clear how anything has been affected by the restrictions/mask wearing and/or not. A bit like "If we hadn't joined the EU we would be much better off now".

[teamsaint]

Two points struck me:

1. The amount of interest there seemed to be among those who, like me, tried to establish without much success who this Ivor Cummins is

2. His attention focusing on Sweden (for obvious reasons) and given that he was pointing out the effect of differing climates (as between the north and the south of the Unitesd States and in Brazil and Mexico) why did he focus his graphs on Sweden and Italy/Spain? He mentioned Norway and Denmark (once each if I remember) but why did he not provide the graphs as between Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark, where Sweden still took a different approach?

That said there were interesting points which touch on what the President refers to as 'herd mentality'. The picture will be clearer (if anyone survives it) when the flu season has come and gone. But it seems likely that it will not immediately be clear how anything has been affected by the restrictions/mask wearing and/or not. A bit like "If we hadn't joined the EU we would be much better off now".

I wasn't clear about the excess deaths charts showing 140k for a normal year ( or was it last year) and 180k this year, and which populations this was taken from, though he did mention 350m, so I assume it was Europe ? Were the excess deaths over a full year, ot a " flu season " ? Either way the suggestion was that the total excess deaths were so far 40k in that population, the implication being that this would , overall, be within usual limits for a bad year for respiratory deaths.

The points about soft previous flu season ( 19/20) in those countries worst affected did seem to be borne out by the figures, and makes sense when looking at the ( well evidenced elsewhere) excess death pattern in the UK.

One thing that bothers me about mitigations is the way that the debate has split pro/anti mask, ( and on other lines) but in fact are we not learning that in general we might usefully be rather more stringent in our day to day habits ? The hand washing message seems to have worked, and is I think now part of a changed pattern of behaviour.
Just my opinion now, I do think that businesses , schools etc need to be , and perhaps are now, much better set up to deal with absence through regular colds/flu-like illness, to stop unnecessary spread, potentially to other more vulnerable people.

[french frank]

I wasn't clear about the excess deaths charts showing 140k for a normal year ( or was it last year) and 180k this year, and which populations this was taken from, though he did mention 350m, so I assume it was Europe ? Were the excess deaths over a full year, ot a " flu season " ? Either way the suggestion was that the total excess deaths were so far 40k in that population, the implication being that this would , overall, be within usual li mist for a bad year for respiratory deaths.

The points about soft previous flu season ( 19/20) in those countries worst affected did seem to be borne out by the figures, and makes sense when looking at the ( well evidenced elsewhere) excess death pattern in the UK.

Ah, I was confused about it and it was going to be my third point but I deleted it thinking I must have misunderstood something :sadface". The graphic for the 180,000 is definitely marked winter 2020, but the virus didn't start making an impact until March and peaked in April. So "winter 2020" will be, Nov - Feb 2020/21. So it was just talking about the earlier soft flu seasons in 2019 and 2020? Yes he did have a point, it seems.

One thing that bothers me about mitigations is the way that the debate has split pro/anti mask, ( and on other lines) but in fact are we not learning that in general we might usefully be rather more stringent in our day to day habits ? The hand washing message seems to have worked, and is I think now part of a changed pattern of behaviour.

And strapped-for-cash local councils have a job to do here. Looking up the council hygiene ratings for local cafes and restaurants, these aren't always displaying the most up to date ratings.

[oddoneout]

And strapped-for-cash local councils have a job to do here. Looking up the council hygiene ratings for local cafes and restaurants, these aren't always displaying the most up to date ratings.

Those ratings have been pointless for a good many years now as environmental health departments were an early casualty of LA budget cuts. They struggle to keep up with the extreme events - vermin invasion, no running water, poor food storage and handling etc, let alone routine low priority checks, which may be years apart.
Sometimes there are inadvertant clues - Jeremy Corbyn's recent holiday snaps included selfies with excited owners of eateries - shoulder to shoulder with JC, staff arms round each other, no masks - published online in the local rag.

[Bryn]

Those ratings have been pointless for a good many years now as environmental health departments were an early casualty of LA budget cuts. They struggle to keep up with the extreme events - vermin invasion, no running water, poor food storage and handling etc, let alone routine low priority checks, which may be years apart.
Sometimes there are inadvertant clues - Jeremy Corbyn's recent holiday snaps included selfies with excited owners of eateries - shoulder to shoulder with JC, staff arms round each other, no masks - published online in the local rag.

Any links? I can only find holiday-related images of him from up to 2017. Perhaps I am using the wrong search terms.

[Cockney Sparrow]

Just my opinion now, I do think that businesses , schools etc need to be , and perhaps are now, much better set up to deal with absence through regular colds/flu-like illness, to stop unnecessary spread, potentially to other more vulnerable people.

Obviously it will be a variable situation, but most headteachers will be doing their utmost to make Covid security effective. Unhelpfully its the younger, Primary children who are likely to be more co-operative with higher proportions of secondary students who may ignore the regime they are being asked to follow (journeys to/from school for a start).

Locally we are hearing of primary children being sent home with their sole sympton being a runny nose. The autumn term being the premier session for swapping coughs colds etc, there will be a lot of home bound children. After organising day care for the child, in situations where one or both parents has to work away from the home, the next question they have to face will be "do I have to isolate because of my child's runny nose?" (And soon after - with no other symptoms, at what point can the child return to school?)

On the media - headteachers have been told to contact local public health depts for guidance on closing cohorts/groups where symptoms crop up - but are reporting hours on the 'phone trying to get guidance which in any sense helps them in their next steps.

[oddoneout]

Any links? I can only find holiday-related images of him from up to 2017. Perhaps I am using the wrong search terms.

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/jeremy-corbyn-visits-holt-taste-of-india-in-norfolk-1-6815038

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/jeremy-corbyn-gorleston-restaurant-norfolk-holiday-1-6815702

More clues I suppose for those idly engaged in identity searches as per Caliban's thread

[Bryn]

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/jeremy-...folk-1-6815038

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/jeremy-corbyn-gorleston-restaurant-norfolk-holiday-1-6815702

More clues I suppose for those idly engaged in identity searches as per Caliban's thread

Not the most responsible way to behave, for sure.

[Serial_Apologist]

Not the most responsible way to behave, for sure.

By anyone there.

[oddoneout]

By anyone there.

I do think that Corbyn should have shown better judgement, and he was in a position to do so since he gave consent for the photos to be taken in the first place.

[Dave2002]

Bluffers guide to Coronavirus risks - https://www.ft.com/content/176b9bbe-...d-070db2d8e6ff

[Frances_iom]

It would appear that the Star Chamber is back from next week - house imprisonment on the say so of an anonymous official based on hearsay information - Tories seem to have become true fascists now.

[LMcD]

It would appear that the Star Chamber is back from next week - house imprisonment on the say so of an anonymous official based on hearsay information - Tories seem to have become true fascists now.

If they're not careful, some people might start calling them the 'The Nasty Party'. I don't think even Mrs May would have encouraged snitching.

[teamsaint]

It would appear that the Star Chamber is back from next week - house imprisonment on the say so of an anonymous official based on hearsay information - Tories seem to have become true fascists now.

The problem is that many on the centre/ left , including the media are complicit, or as enthusiastic as the tories.

[Frances_iom]

recall Germany in late 1930's - enthusiastic response to the Fuhrer - and with a silenced parliament via a large majority