Coronavirus

[johnb]

The government Coronavirus Dashboard has been flaky for some days but now doesn't show anything at all.

The data is still available though via their API, and can be accessed either with URLs (which need to be "constructed") or using Python and the coding examples provided.

[LMcD]

I can't really get my head round all these numbers, and don't know which, if any, of the various explanations I can trust, but I'm interested/concerned enough to wonder what extent the apparent increase in the number of new cases, averaged out over 7 days, is attributable to the increase in the number of tests. There must presumably be some connection, but can we trust the powers that be to tell us whether other factors might be at work? There also seems to be much more emphasis on, or concern about, the role of younger people than there was initially.

[johnb]

The number of tests carried out does obviously have a marked effect on the number of confirmed cases.

The confirmed cases per 100k tests shows just a slight increase from mid July up to 26th Aug (the last day for which the number of tests have been published).

However the two most reliable sources to assess whether cases are increasing in the general population are the weekly ONS Infection Survey and the weekly Test and Trace report.

The ONS Infection Survey monitors a random sample of the population so this should be the most reliable guide, but the number of Covid positive cases in the sample is very low so there is a wide margin of error. However, in the latest report dated 28th August they state:

There is some evidence of a small increase in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in July, following a low point in June, but this continues to level off.

and you can see their charts in this section of the report: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...o-had-covid-19

The other source is the weekly Test and Trace reports which contain the number of people tested together with the number of confirmed cases, by week. The statistics from the lasted report (w/e 19th August) can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collec...weekly-reports

This is a chart I cobbled together from the statistics in that report. It shows the percentage of people tested who tested positive for Covid-19 - and there is a slight increase in recent weeks.



So, up to the date of the reports, indications are that if there is an increase in cases in the general population the increase is relatively modest in scale.

[johnb]

There also seems to be much more emphasis on, or concern about, the role of younger people than there was initially.

Looking at the confirmed cases in England:

Cumulative to 10/08 (which includes the peak of the epidemic):
people between 15 and 44 accounted for 34% of all cases
people 65 and over accounted for 35% of all cases

For w/e 29/08:
people between 15 and 44 accounted for 64% of all cases
people 65 and over accounted for only 8% of cases

[teamsaint]

I can't really get my head round all these numbers, and don't know which, if any, of the various explanations I can trust, but I'm interested/concerned enough to wonder what extent the apparent increase in the number of new cases, averaged out over 7 days, is attributable to the increase in the number of tests. There must presumably be some connection, but can we trust the powers that be to tell us whether other factors might be at work? There also seems to be much more emphasis on, or concern about, the role of younger people than there was initially.

Professor Heneghan puts much of the the increase in infections down to better targeted testing in hot spots, which are picking up large numbers of asymptomatic cases.
I can't find his latest comments, but they suggest that local lockdowns are not justified by the level of serious illness developing from these infections.

Edit: here is the relevant article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/27/local-lockdowns-england-coronavirus-watchlist

[Globaltruth]

The number of tests carried out does obviously have a marked effect on the number of confirmed cases.

The confirmed cases per 100k tests shows just a slight increase from mid July up to 26th Aug (the last day for which the number of tests have been published).

However the two most reliable sources to assess whether cases are increasing in the general population are the weekly ONS Infection Survey and the weekly Test and Trace report.

The ONS Infection Survey monitors a random sample of the population so this should be the most reliable guide, but the number of Covid positive cases in the sample is very low so there is a wide margin of error. However, in the latest report dated 28th August they state:



and you can see their charts in this section of the report: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...o-had-covid-19

The other source is the weekly Test and Trace reports which contain the number of people tested together with the number of confirmed cases, by week. The statistics from the lasted report (w/e 19th August) can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collec...weekly-reports

This is a chart I cobbled together from the statistics in that report. It shows the percentage of people tested who tested positive for Covid-19 - and there is a slight increase in recent weeks.



So, up to the date of the reports, indications are that if there is an increase in cases in the general population the increase is relatively modest in scale.

Thanks again John - appreciate your diligence, this is a complex area.
Next few weeks will become even more complex I suspect.

[DracoM]

Listen to R4 More or Less Wed a.m. 9.00 a.m.

[Bryn]

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

[teamsaint]

https://elemental.medium.com/a-super...d-31cb8eba9d63

Thanks Bryn, that is an really interesting read.

[Dave2002]

https://elemental.medium.com/a-super...d-31cb8eba9d63

Very interesting. Definitely worth a read. The suggestion that vitamin D might mitigate problems is also worth noting.

[Bryn]

Very interesting. [Definitely] worth a read. The suggestion that vitamin D might mitigate problems is also worth noting.

By serendipity, I take 2 Vitamin D (and Calcium) supplements a day (I was diagnosed as borderline osteopenic a few years ago). Unfortunately, similar medication (in her case for full osteoporosis) did not protect my dear friend the late Carole Finer/Chant from COVID-19.

[DracoM]

Evidence session - Impact of Covid-19 on DCMS Sectors: Reopening at Capacity



Tuesday 8 September, 09.30

Watch session LIVE

Please note there is no access to Parliament
Session will have remote participation by witnesses and Committee members


Theatrical impresario Andrew Lloyd Webber to appear before MPs on challenges to the return of live audiences

The composer and producer Andrew Lloyd Webber will give evidence to the DCMS Committee on the financial viability of reopening performance venues while meeting the government’s social distancing requirements. Evidence from the creative and sports sectors shows that venue capacities will be far below the level required to break even when audiences and fans are required to maintain social distancing. Andrew Lloyd Webber has urged the Government to announce a target date for venues to reopen without social distancing. Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has estimated November would be the earliest date possible.

MPs will specifically consider how sporting events and live music performances can safely resume, including alternative plans to allow reopening of venues at capacity without social distancing. These include proposals for audience members to have to obtain negative Covid-19 test results to be admitted to live events and venues. The use of testing and digital ‘health passports’ to allow safe attendance at sporting events will also be examined.



Witnesses at 9.30am:

Andrew Lloyd Webber, Composer and Owner, LW Theatres and Rebecca Kane Burton, CEO, LW Theatres
Melvin Benn, Managing Director, Festival Republic
Lucy Noble, Artistic and Commercial Director, Royal Albert Hall and Chair, National Arenas Association
Avi Lasarow, CEO Europe, Middle East and Africa, Prenetics


Note to editors:

In July the DCMS Committee published its first report on the Impact of Covid-19 on DCMS Sectors which called for the Government to do more to restart the performing arts. Indoor performances with socially distanced audiences in England resumed from 15 August (delayed by two weeks from initial date of 1 August due to public health concerns).



Further information:

Committee membership:

Julian Knight MP (Chair) (Conservative, Solihull); Kevin Brennan MP (Labour, Cardiff West); Steve Brine MP (Conservative, Winchester); Philip Davies MP (Conservative, Shipley); Alex Davies-Jones MP (Labour, Pontypridd) Clive Efford MP (Labour, Eltham); Julie Elliott MP (Labour, Sunderland Central); Rt Hon Damian Green MP (Conservative, Ashford); Rt Hon Damian Hinds MP (Conservative, East Hampshire); John Nicolson MP (Scottish National Party, Ochil and South Perthshire); Giles Watling MP (Conservative, Clacton).

Media queries to Anne Peacock peacocka@parliament.uk / 07753 101 017; Gina Degtyareva degtyarevae@parliament.uk / 07548 146 012.

Visit the DCMS Committee website

Committee Twitter: @CommonsDCMS

Specific Committee Information: cmscom@parliament.uk / 020 7219 6188

[Dave2002]

Update as we head into winter, plus a curious mass experiment in Germany - https://www.newstatesman.com/interna...ty-coronavirus

[Dave2002]

Another potential prophylactic based on antimalarial drugs - but hamsters aren't humans - https://www.wired.com/story/hydroxyc...s-dirty-cousin

It doesn't follow that the results if tried on humans will be good - sometimes animal trials are very promising, and then human trials don't work. Sometimes what works in one animal doesn't work in another even before getting to humans. One trial for multiple-sclerosis looked promising in animals, with "only" a few stages to go before humans. Then it was tried on dogs. They died. End of story.

It's very easy to pick up threads of "good news", which actually lead nowhere - though one does have to start somewhere.

[teamsaint]

I am baffled by the deaths figures.
They dont seem to bear any relation to the government dashboard.
I’m sure johnb can sort it all out.........
Meanwhile, admissions to hospital are staying flat at the moment , despite the higher numbers of positive tests. One way to interpret this is by looking at Carl Heneghan’s recent thoughts.

In other news, Hampshire schools return tomorrow, with a range of mitigations that simply can’t withstand a cold autumn.

But then of course, they won’t affect the folks making up the rules.