Coronavirus

[johnb]

The recent chart which John provided showing cases broken down into areas was helpful, and I hope we can continue to have that kind of presentation, either done by our local number crunchers (thank you again, John) or provided by other credible official sources.

Dave, which chart are you referring to? Please let me have the post number so I can make sure I can update the right one.

[Eine Alpensinfonie]

There's this for brass and singing:

https://www.bbe.org.uk/news/04082020-1628/brass-bands-england-releases-laboratory-research-results

Doesn't include woodwind though. WW seems a much different/bigger issue as air is blown through or over them to produce sound unlike brass/singing.

The MU email I received today did include woodwinds, though I can see that these instruments may have added complications, especially open-holes ones.

[Dave2002]

Dave, which chart are you referring to? Please let me have the post number so I can make sure I can update the right one.

I think it was the Excel spreadsheet which you (or someone) put up on Box. There's an example in post 3424 - just checking I got that right one more time. Yep - that's OK.

http://www.for3.org/forums/showthread.php?21399-Coronavirus&p=804294#post804294

[johnb]

Thanks Dave, as it happens I posted a link to an updated file in #3486 but my description wasn't all that clear. Perhaps I'll now refer to it as Local Authority Chart and Data

I've just updated the file again with data up to 10th August.

Forgive me for repeating myself but scrolling through the dates in the chart is unlikely to work properly except in Excel but the data will still be there of course. I am hoping it works properly with the Mac version of Excel.

Future updates will use the same download link.

https://app.box.com/s/7ugl5c8iecft9o1cy0uf2x7nnyuqq222

(I've moved the controls to the side of the chart, to suit screens smaller than the large monitor I use.)

Please let me know of any problems. Suggestions welcome

A bit about the source data. From what I can see it is probably the same source data as is used by the BBC in the link you provided earlier.

The daily cases are by specimen date and some of the figures will change (upwards) in files released on future dates, as more specimens are processed. This particularly affects the last three days which I discard, as does the BBC. For example, the file published on the 14th will contain data up to the 13th but the figures for the 11th, 12th and 13th are very unreliable. Figures for earlier dates will be subject to some revision but I think that discarding just 3 days is a reasonable compromise between accuracy and timeliness.

There is no longer a download link on the revised Coronavirus Dashboard but the URL that the old link used continues to work, for now at least. (It might be possible to retrieve the data using the API if access via the old URL is with withdrawn.)

PS You need to use the "Expand Axes for Leicester & Oldham" option to get Oldham onto the chart in over recent days.

[Dave2002]

Thanks John - I’ll keep watching this. I should still be able to look at the file in Excel, though no thanks to Apple and Catalina. I still have versions of Excel which should work on my other machines. It’s just less convenient to have to go to use those. If you do post copies showing the major hotspots from time to time that might help some people.

Right now it looks as though for some of us the incidence rates are low enough that we’re really quite safe, as long as we avoid hot spots. Unfortunately the battle hasn’t been won, and this disease could easily flare up again, though if detected and treatment required outcomes are looking slightly better now - but probably still best avoided by everyone, and particularly those who are in what were (and still are de facto) considered high risk and vulnerable groups.

[johnb]

[QUOTE=Dave2002;804842If you do post copies showing the major hotspots from time to time that might help some people.[/QUOTE]

I've just updated the file again, to include 11/08 (not that I intend doing this every day) and was very surprised to see the week on week case number increases in case numbers iNorthampton, Northamptonshire and Birmingham when looking at the 7 days ending 11/08. (I went back to the original downloaded data to checked that I hadn't messed things up.)

[Cockney Sparrow]

As to Northants - has this anything to do with it?

"Nearly 300 workers test positive at M&S sandwich supplier in Northampton "

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/13/nearly-300-workers-test-positive-at-ms-sandwich-factory-in-northampton

[johnb]

As to Northants - has this anything to do with it?

"Nearly 300 workers test positive at M&S sandwich supplier in Northampton "
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...in-northampton

Almost certainly. The cases for Northampton and Northamptonshire suddenly shot up on the 10th. Hopefully they will be able to contain the outbreak before it takes hold in the general community.

Yet another outbreak in a food processing plant.

[french frank]

Yet another outbreak in a food processing plant.

And strangely they say the virus is unlikely to be transmitted via food.

[Frances_iom]

And strangely they say the virus is unlikely to be transmitted via food.

cold damp (especially if damp has some protein included) seems an ideal medium to stabilise the virus for a long life - hence meat processing, the chinese finding an outbreak brought in by packaging? of Brazilian sea food - also scientific paper that demonstrated aerosol transmission of viable virus used such a cold protein rich medium as a virus 'trap'

Moral - go veggie!

[Dave2002]

And strangely they say the virus is unlikely to be transmitted via food.

Is it really so strange? Do we know whether any/many viruses can be transmitted via food?

Food transmission could be either by handling - picking up a virus on hands, and then moving the virus to an area which could easily be affected - probably nose or eyes in the case of the current one - or by ingestion. It is possible that the environment inside one's stomach is going to be hostile to many viruses, and they would break down easily - before causing further problems. Does any biologist here know about this?

[french frank]

Is it really so strange? Do we know whether any/many viruses can be transmitted via food?

No, not strange that food is said to be unlikely to transmit, but what it is about food handling centres particularly that has made them places where there have been very significant outbreaks.

[Frances_iom]

they are usually chilled, usually therefore with a damp atmosphere, the material being handled eg raw meat, raw seafood offer surfaces amenable to virus stability and in many cases originate in regions experiencing a high covid infection, and often the processes need several staff in close proximity - some food may be processed + sent off in a still raw form or as possible with the Chinese example the virus is indeed arriving in the packaging which is probably contaminated by protein rich water.

[Dave2002]

I spent some time trying to figure out what the data in the chart of msg 3494 is showing us. As far as I can see it highlights hotspots.
Many of the towns are clustered together near the origin - so have low incidence and only a small week on week change.

Points to the right have more cases, and points which are higher up have a greater week on week change. Given the various uncertainties in the production of the chart it's perhaps too much to expect to get a lot more insight out of it, but it does clearly draw attention to problem locations. The data is normalised, so does not depend on the size of each town or city.

Definitely a useful tool.

[french frank]

they are usually chilled, usually therefore with a damp atmosphere, the material being handled eg raw meat, raw seafood offer surfaces amenable to virus stability and in many cases originate in regions experiencing a high covid infection, and often the processes need several staff in close proximity - some food may be processed + sent off in a still raw form or as possible with the Chinese example the virus is indeed arriving in the packaging which is probably contaminated by protein rich water.

Yes, so a combination of factors, some or all of which are conducive to transmission. Low temperatures, yes, though cold dry conditions seems to make the spread easier; and the virus seems to live longer on hard surfaces (metal snd plastic) rather raw meat. Packaging, yes, but food packaging specially? Yet factually such centres are centres of infection so you are presumably right!