Coronavirus

[johnb]

References are being made in various places to the observation that while confirmed cases are going up, associated hospitalisations are going down. This appears to have been going on for long enough to not be explainable away by the lag between these previously well-correlated variables.

That clearly shows up in the data (by recorded date) that I have downloaded, though if you look at the Pillar 1 and 2 confirmed cases per 100,000 processed tests the 7 day average seems to have been more or less flat since 28th July.

Interestingly the cases/100k for Pillar 1 cases has shown a slight decline over the same period. Perhaps more regular testing of hospital staff? Who knows ...

However, I've not seen any proper data on the age distribution of recent confirmed cases. Rhetorical allusions yes, data with verifiable sources, no. Does anyone know of a source of this information in digestible format?

I haven't seen that data on any of the government websites or in any of the available downloads.

I've just looked at the "Developer's guide" on the "Coronavirus Dashboard" and there are "metrics" (available data fields) for "Male cases (by age)" and for "Female cases (by age)" so the information just might well be available via API.

If, as seems plausible, current infections are heavily biased towards younger cohorts, this is exactly what would be expected. A toll of severe illness and worse could then come weeks or even months later when an outbreak inevitably propagates into higher risk groups...

That seems to be the case.

EDITED

[Simon B]

BTW just to add my thanks to johnb for sharing the results of his own efforts with the data.

You'd think it would be dead easy for those interested in a more detailed appraisal than most to get the data presented in all sorts of ways, but it seems not.

Your audience is likely small here so I hope you're mainly doing this for your own illumination. It is interesting for"numbers people" who are trying to understand what's occurring though.

[johnb]

Simon,

The cumulative figures for cases by age range (Male and Female) are available on the "Coronavirus Dashboard" but, as far as I can see, one can't get the data for specific date ranges or by day.

I did try accessing the API data via a URL and, amazingly, it resulted in csv files. However they only contained the same data as is available on website.

By the way, thank you for your kind comments.

[Dave2002]

Different strategies - https://www.wired.co.uk/article/zero...us-elimination

Zero Covid approaches vs .... ???? England compared with Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

[Anastasius]

Different strategies - https://www.wired.co.uk/article/zero...us-elimination

Zero Covid approaches vs .... ???? England compared with Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Border controls ? Locking the border is dead easy for a country like New Zealand where very few people travel to.

There is so much more that we could have done and done sooner. And a lot that we've done but shouldn't. Such as allowing pubs and clubs to open.

[teamsaint]

Border controls ? Locking the border is dead easy for a country like New Zealand where very few people travel to.

There is so much more that we could have done and done sooner. And a lot that we've done but shouldn't. Such as allowing pubs and clubs to open.

And there is a huge amount of damage caused by the lockdown. Covid 19 isn’t the only threat.

We really do have to get the economy , NHS, and society functioning, because there is other long term damage being caused.

Clubs aren’t open are they?

[Dave2002]

And there is a huge amount of damage caused by the lockdown. Covid 19 isn’t the only threat.

We really do have to get the economy , NHS, and society functioning, because there is other long term damage being caused.

Clubs aren’t open are they?

A lot of the damage is in the eyes of the beholders. Personally I wouldn't care if every football club, rugby club, cricket club, or horse racing circuit, or casino closed - but I suspect those who like the activities related to those wouldn't care about cathedral choirs, orchestras or concert halls either.

Getting a balance which is overall "reasonable" is difficult.

[Frances_iom]

and New Zealand has just found a household with Covid transmission who have no history of movement outside of NZ which otherwise has reported no other case outside of its policed quarantine facilities for 3 months - will be interesting to see the mechanism of this breach of quarantine.

[Serial_Apologist]

and New Zealand has just found a household with Covid transmission who have no history of movement outside of NZ which otherwise has reported no other case outside of its policed quarantine facilities for 3 months - will be interesting to see the mechanism of this breach of quarantine.

The only possibility I can think of would be something contaminated arriving by post.

[teamsaint]

Interesting article in the Spectator today, comparing Covid current infections with current flu and pneumonia cases and deaths.

[Frances_iom]

The only possibility I can think of would be something contaminated arriving by post.

that was my initial thought but I thought the lifetime of the virus was limited on most surfaces (tho I note that UK Nat Archives quarantine used files which would generally be paper covers for 3 days) - my other thought was frozen meat? does NZ import such ?
I'm hoping that the NZ test trace come up with a plausible cause.

[Pulcinella]

I have not been following this thread (though I join in thanking johnb for his contributions) as I found it was making me even more gloomy, so apologise if this (somewhat off-topic but related) comment has already been made.

I read today that GPs are going to be encouraged to use their car parks as drive-through centres to administer this year's flu jabs.

In the time since I moved to York, I have been to all three of our group practice's surgeries for my jab, and each time has been utterly shambolic. Two of the surgeries are on main roads with at most two or three parking spaces, and the other has spaces for about a dozen cars, but only one smallish entrance/exit.
So how is this going to work, I wonder.

I have booked to have my jab administered at/by the local branch of Boots (closer than any of the surgeries) on 21 September, a 15-minute appointment. I'd advise anyone else to do something similar if they can.

[Serial_Apologist]

I have not been following this thread (though I join in thanking johnb for his contributions) as I found it was making me even more gloomy, so apologise if this (somewhat off-topic but related) comment has already been made.

I read today that GPs are going to be encouraged to use their car parks as drive-through centres to administer this year's flu jabs.

In the time since I moved to York, I have been to all three of our group practice's surgeries for my jab, and each time has been utterly shambolic. Two of the surgeries are on main roads with at most two or three parking spaces, and the other has spaces for about a dozen cars, but only one smallish entrance/exit.
So how is this going to work, I wonder.

I have booked to have my jab administered at/by the local branch of Boots (closer than any of the surgeries) on 21 September, a 15-minute appointment. I'd advise anyone else to do something similar if they can.

For the past 4 years I have received my flu jab at the pharmacy that deals with my regular prescription.
But your post does raise a matter that has been troubling me for the past 3 months.

As someone who has been on a regular supply of drugs since having a stent inserted into one of my heart valves 8 years ago, my local surgery had always contacted me by letter, prompting me to arrange a visit for reviewing purposes. The doctor - any doctor at the practice as I don't have one personally designated - always reports back on the previous May's blood tests, re-news my prescription regime, which also includes creams for two types of exzema, and sends me away with a new letter for presentation at my next blood testing session. The past two years have raised slight concerns at my personal threshold coming close to being in the Diabetes Type 2 category, and I have subsequently gone to considerable lengths to change diet and undertake more exercise to lose necessary pounds. However, I have not heard anything from the surgery: have I been dropped from their records, or does this place the onus on me to make sure I get my annual blood test - the pharmacy seems happy to renew my prescription at my say so, even though I now have to sign for it every 2 months? If this is now the commonplace, I presume I am not to worry.

[antongould]

I don’t know if it’s been mentioned but there is, IMVVHO, a very good programme on PBS America - The Virus What Went Wrong?

[Dave2002]

Interesting article in the Spectator today, comparing Covid current infections with current flu and pneumonia cases and deaths.

Probably wasn't this article about Pakistan - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-success-story

I'm not too fond of the Spectator - since it was happy to publish "articles" by the current PM - not all of them serving any useful purpose other than to himself perhaps.

It would be interesting to know which article it was, though.