Coronavirus

**teamsaint** · 07-08-20, 09:46

Originally posted by Frances_iom View Post

In many places it's the opening of pubs with indoor drinking (+ also I suspect large gatherings of the young such as raves with inherent close contacts) that have pushed the increase - if all 20-30 year olds lived together then herd immunity would start to apply but they don't - they live with parents or even older relatives thus one infected youngster who may well be asymptomatic or very little affected can infect older relatives who move in different social circles - the hospital admissions will follow several days later.

At a very quick glance, there are roughly equal numbers of 18-30 s in private rented and living at home, if I read it right.

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https://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/files/jrf/migrated/files/young-people-housing-options-full_0.pdf

**LMcD** · 07-08-20, 11:54

Originally posted by french frank View Post

I imagine so, given that it appears that younger, healthier people are more likely to go out and about (and ignore the guidelines) while older people are still cautious about going out.

The unbelievably selfish behaviour of some Aberdeen FC players - 8 in self-isolation, 2 confirmed cases - remain to be seen.

**johnb** · 07-08-20, 12:00

Originally posted by teamsaint View Post

Just 20 people admitted to hospital yesterday.
I wonder if the current infections are tending to hit younger healthier people ?

The latest day's hospital admissions figures on the Dashboard are unreliable and are always revised upwards on subsequent days.

The 20 is for admissions to English hospitals on 4th Aug (published yesterday) but, as I said, that will be revised upwards. The admission figures for the preceding four days were 50, 57, 74, 58 so the 4th Aug is likely to finish up in the same ball park.

teamsaint's point is still absolutely valid though.

As well as number of hospital admissions in England gradually declining, the number of deaths in English hospitals also continues to decrease. The deaths reported over the past 7 days averaged 10 per day. Just 10.

(Sorry to be one of those annoying old farts who continually nit pick.)

**Stanfordian** · 07-08-20, 13:48

Originally posted by french frank View Post

I imagine so, given that it appears that younger, healthier people are more likely to go out and about (and ignore the guidelines) while older people are still cautious about going out.

I think you are spot on. Middle age and older people seem to be the most cautious. From my experience it's extremely rare to see young people wearing masks, especially teenagers with groups of friends. Maybe be the Government should place more emphasis on using the social media platforms to reach out with the message.

Yesterday I was in a busy Morrisons supermarket for half an hour or so. In there I was pleasantly surprised to notice only a single person without a mask, a women aged around say 35 with a young child.

Here on the coast, a very popular destination for large groups of cyclists and motorbikers who are definitely the worst groups that I've seen. In the main they don't seen to wear masks or socially distance at their rest or meet-up objectives.

My son is in construction and from what he has seen he reports there is very little caution being taken by individuals on site or visiting homes.

For what it's worth, in my view opening the pubs is a bad and dangerous idea which needs to change quickly.

**oddoneout** · 07-08-20, 13:58

Originally posted by Stanfordian View Post

I think you are spot on. From my experience it's extremely rare to see young people wearing masks, especially teenagers with groups of friends. Maybe be the Government should place more emphasis on using the social media platforms to reach out with the message.

Yesterday I was in a busy Morrisons supermarket for half an hour or so. In there I noticed only one person without a mask, a women aged around say 35 with a young child.

Here on the coast, large groups of cyclists and motorbikers seem to the worst groups that I've seen, who in the main don't wear masks or socially distance at their meet-up destinations.

Who might in any case have had exemption?

**DracoM** · 07-08-20, 15:15

Yep, and here too - bloomin' bikers, and chuck-it-all-out-of-car-windows tourists.
Is this a new way of demonstrating to govts you don't give a stuff, or what?

**oddoneout** · 07-08-20, 17:09

Originally posted by DracoM View Post

Yep, and here too - bloomin' bikers, and chuck-it-all-out-of-car-windows tourists.
Is this a new way of demonstrating to govts you don't give a stuff, or what?

I read an observation/suggestion the other week that the lack of festivals has resulted in a lot of folk who would spend some of their free time attending those - and making a godawful mess in a relatively confined area - taking that mentality out into the countryside instead.
There may well be an element of up yours to the government as well - mixed and confusing messages, blatant cronyism and no consequences for wrong doing are not the best way to encourage the populace to behave responsibly. The growing trend of entitlement without responsibility and me first, stuff everyone else attitude doesn't help either. The attitude that 'I want to do xyz and I expect 'them' to make that possible' regardless of circumstances. I work at a 'visitor attraction' and it is the norm now for people to get up from the picnic benches and tables without even bothering to put their used items on a tray let alone take things back to the cafe and put the rubbish in the bins. Yet they are quick to complain when there isn't a clean table or the cafe has run out of clean cups and cutlery because staff are too busy to go round the site rounding up the dirties.

**johnb** · 08-08-20, 12:03

Back in post #3370 (http://www.for3.org/forums/showthrea...824#post803824) Simon_B suggested that an animated version of the chart I posted in post #3369 would be useful.

http://www.for3.org/forums/showthrea...822#post803822.

I've done something akin to that in Excel, where the chart can dynamically show the week ending situation for each of the last, say 28 days, day by day, by using a slider bar to move through the 28 days.

People would have to download the Excel file though, as I can't display the "animation" in a post. (I don't really want to mess about creating an animated gif file.)

Would this be of interest to anyone?

**Bryn** · 08-08-20, 12:06

Originally posted by johnb View Post

Back in post #3370 (http://www.for3.org/forums/showthrea...824#post803824) Simon_B suggested am animated version of the chart I posted in post #3369 would be of interest http://www.for3.org/forums/showthrea...822#post803822.

I've done something akin to that in Excel, where the chart can dynamically show each of the last, say, 28 days, day by day, by using a slider bar to move through the 28 days.

It would mean downloading an Excel file though, as I can't display it in a post. (I don't really want to mess about creating an animated gif file.)

Would this be of interest to anyone?

If it works in Open Office, fine. I'm up for it.

**Stanfordian** · 08-08-20, 12:10

Originally posted by oddoneout View Post

Who might in any case have had exemption?

Yes, that's right. That person may well have an exemption. Who knows!

**Globaltruth** · 08-08-20, 12:12

Originally posted by johnb View Post

Back in post #3370 (http://www.for3.org/forums/showthrea...824#post803824) Simon_B suggested that an animated version of the chart I posted in post #3369 would be useful.

http://www.for3.org/forums/showthrea...822#post803822.

I've done something akin to that in Excel, where the chart can dynamically show each of the last, say 28 days, day by day, by using a slider bar to move through the 28 days.

People would have to download the Excel file though, as I can't display the "animation" in a post. (I don't really want to mess about creating an animated gif file.)

Would this be of interest to anyone?

Yes, definitely. I use Apple Numbers - not found an XL s/s it can't handle yet....

**johnb** · 08-08-20, 14:31

I doubt whether the Excel file will work properly with either OpenOffice or Apple Numbers as it depends on a VBA macro to label the individual data points as Local Authority Areas. OpenCalc definitely doesn't like that (it uses a different macro language) and Apple Numbers doesn't support VBA.

So I've made my first attempt at creating an animated gif - not perfect but it is my first try.

The title for the vertical axis should read "Increase on the average of the previous 2 weeks" - apologies for the typo.

I had to extend the X axis to cater for Leicester which, for a time, had an alarmingly high level of cases per 100,000.

I can change the time between screens and (probably) stop it from continually looping.

Suggestions?

I will also upload the Excel file and post a link here.

**johnb** · 08-08-20, 15:07

The link to the Excel file: https://app.box.com/s/7ugl5c8iecft9o1cy0uf2x7nnyuqq222

Users need to allow the macros when opening the file, otherwise it won't work properly.

This was done in Excel 2003 so it should work in most (all ?) versions of Excel. (I do have Office 365 but somehow I continue to use Excel 2003.)

It is very unlikely to work properly with OpenOffice or Apple Numbers.

Comments gratefully received (issues, suggestions, etc).

**Alison** · 08-08-20, 17:44

Top effort John!

**johnb** · 09-08-20, 18:11

Something curious, which has been alluded to before by others.

We are told that the number of cases in the UK is rising - and that is true.

I might well be wrong but when I calculate the number of positive cases per 100,000 processed tests, the 7 day average of that has been more or less flat from the 28th July, i.e. the increase in the number of cases appears to be due to the rise in the number of tests rather than an increase in overall prevalence, even though there are a number of spikes across the country.