Coronavirus

[Dave2002]

4) Trust your own judgement in order to behave responsibly on the basis of your own interpretation of the situation, following the rules in the light of your own experience and that of people personally known to you.
A practical example: I have some newsletters to deliver and subscriptions to collect. I shall pop the newsletters through members' letter-boxes together with a note asking them to in turn pop their subscription through mine -they all live within a 5-minute walk of my house. I shall in turn deliver their new membership cards to them (using the same envelope in each case).
Simples!

I agree with much of the above. I would mention Robert Peston as a public figure worth considering for trust - though he, like many of the others, has been disregarded by the politicians. The politicians shouldn't think we haven't noticed the way that some of the science advisers they have appeared with have been treated - Professor Tan, the senior nurse etc. - all pushed to one side when the politicians didn't like what they were saying.

Re newsletters - obviously you've only got local printed ones to hand out - presumably marked with something like "Produced and distributed in a Covid-19 secure way" (I'm really not too worried - I'm sure you are doing something sensible ....) - but many societies may try to send out emails instead. Note that tools such as MailChimp may (not absolutely guaranteed) avoid some problems versus trying to use regular email for volume newsletter mailouts.

[Serial_Apologist]

After an exhaustive research process, I've come up with my own 4-step plan for coping with the Covid crisis - I say 'my own', but anybody and everybody is of course free to try it.
1) Don't believe anything any politician says - the odds are that they don't know what they're talking about, or fail (or choose, for policy-related reasons) to understand what they know or have been told.
2) Be very wary of any statement by any public health official or scientific 'expert' - it's not their job to make public pronouncements while appearing alongside government apologists, and when they do their advice is unlikely to be listened to if the politicians don't agree with what they say, fail to understand it or deliberately distort it. The repeated disagreements and changes of mind of and among these people sadly confirm the need for such caution on the part of the general public. The above also goes for all the statistics, the presentation of which would, in a different context, be labelled 'confusion marketing'.
3) If you can, find a 'public figure' whose views and knowledge you feel you can trust - Ros Altmann and Hugh Pym, for example. This will help when you proceed to step 4.
4) Trust your own judgement in order to behave responsibly on the basis of your own interpretation of the situation, following the rules in the light of your own experience and that of people personally known to you.
A practical example: I have some newsletters to deliver and subscriptions to collect. I shall pop the newsletters through members' letter-boxes together with a note asking them to in turn pop their subscription through mine -they all live within a 5-minute walk of my house. I shall in turn deliver their new membership cards to them (using the same envelope in each case).
Simples!

Like Dave 2002 I tend to agree with this line of thinking. Ever since lockdown began I've been donning the face mask irrespective of the arguments re personal protection on grounds it is better to be safe than sorry. Otherwise I'm sticking where possible to the earliest advice re 2 metre social distancing, hand washing and disinfecting anything posted or purchased. Covid-19 seems to have accentuated my OCD tendencies - homecoming has in turn become a major ritual: merchandise, cycle brakes, handlebars and lock, even house keys, hands, face.

[LMcD]

I agree with much of the above. I would mention Robert Peston as a public figure worth considering for trust - though he, like many of the others, has been disregarded by the politicians. The politicians shouldn't think we haven't noticed the way that some of the science advisers they have appeared with have been treated - Professor Tan, the senior nurse etc. - all pushed to one side when the politicians didn't like what they were saying.

Re newsletters - obviously you've only got local printed ones to hand out - presumably marked with something like "Produced and distributed in a Covid-19 secure way" (I'm really not too worried - I'm sure you are doing something sensible ....) - but many societies may try to send out emails instead. Note that tools such as MailChimp may (not absolutely guaranteed) avoid some problems versus trying to use regular email for volume newsletter mailouts.

The newsletters - for members of the Old Felixstowe Community Association - are produced at home by the editor and delivered to distributors who deliver them in turn to Area Reps of which I'm one. When I've received (hopefully) all the subscriptions on my 'round' I shall offer the Membership Secretary a choice of a cheque for the appropriate amount or bank transfer into a designated account.
Our Thursday morning get-togethers (a different group) will resume in mid-August under strict conditions - we have complete confidence in the organizers, who have gone to extraordinary lengths to get us together again while taking all necessary precautions.

[Dave2002]

Our Thursday morning get-togethers (a different group) will resume in mid-August under strict conditions - we have complete confidence in the organizers, who have gone to extraordinary lengths to get us together again while taking all necessary precautions.

Well done - good to see some activity springing to life, with suitable precautions. I believe there is interest in Scotland in socially distanced meetups in open spaces, such as National Trust gardens, and as long as people arrive in separate vehicles that should now be permitted. I'm not sure if the tea rooms are always going to be open, but I guess people can bring picnics.

Newsletters can be used to notify people of activities, such as those, which might interest them.

Some groups which have been doing Zoom meetings, are now thinking of more in-person meetings, in gardens and other allowed venues, and this is permitted if the groups are small.

[johnb]

We have all heard about the problems that Oldham is having but, out of curiosity, I've had a look at the local authority cases. I've looked at the weeks 13th-19th and 20th-26th and then, to whittle it down, selected those local authorities where the increase been those weeks is more than 10% and more than 10 cases - there are 26 of them.

Not only is Oldham a problem but there are a cluster of local authorities around Manchester that are showing increases. (The numbers are the new cases in the last 3 weeks.)

Oldham (38, 44, 128)
Trafford (15, 26, 87)
Manchester (75, 78, 121)
Stockport (11, 23, 48)
Salford (37, 28, 46)

Then in the Midlands there are
Sandwell (26, 76, 101)
Wolverhampton (10, 13, 38)
Dudley (6, 4, 16)

And examples such as
Cornwall & Isles of Scilly (7, 5, 19)
Swindon (11, 18, 40)

Bristol, where I live, is also showing a definite uptick in the number of cases over the last week (10, 11, 19) but there are a great many local authorities where there is either no increase or only a small increase.

This brings to mind the question of how Track and Trace (or whatever it is now being called) is managed. In Bristol, as an example, the number of daily confirmed cases has ranged between 1 and 5 over the last week. It is at this stage when Track and Trace is vitally important in order to prevent the growth of infections escalating out of control. I can't help but think that in this situation the local public health department would be much more incentivised and would almost certainly do a much better job than an outsourced call centre.

[Frances_iom]

I wonder if the Trafford one is due to the illegal large rave that occurred a short time ago.
The Oldham surge appears to involve the South Asian families where the virus is readily transmitted between the generations in large households thus possibly only involving a small number of places - elsewhere a Moslem funeral with a large number of supposedly socially distanced mourners was involved after which the Iman tested positive possibly a similar event occurred here.
However my own suspicion is that elsewhere pubs may also be a focus of infection.

[johnb]

The government is issuing dire warnings about importing a "second wave" from continental Europe. As valid as that might be there are proto-spikes of infection in the UK which could easily grow out of control unless action is taken and I do wonder whether the emphasis on importing cases is, in part, a distraction from what is happening here.

Comparing the local authority cases for w/e 24th July to the average of the two previous weeks:

There are 8 local authorities where the cases have increased more than 100% and more than 15 in number:

Hydburn (156%, 20)
Oldham (222%, 82)
Oxford (138%, 18)
Stockport (158%, 25)
Swindon (134%, 20)
Tameside (130%, 22)
Trafford (275%, 55)
Wolverhampton (218%, 24)

If we expands that to an increase of over 50% and at least 15 cases we add:

Oxfordshire (84%, 26)
Salford (54%, 17)
Sandwell (78%, 39)
West Sussex (67%, 17)

Mostly the number of cases are are fairly limited but we know that infections can grow at an exponential rate so it is important to deal with these, and other, "proto-spikes" early.

Using the download on the PHE Dashboard website I've rehashed the data into a spreadsheet showing the week by week cases for each local authority in England. If anyone is interested I will upload it to Box.net and provide a link to it.

[Globaltruth]

The government is issuing dire warnings about importing a "second wave" from continental Europe. As valid as that might be there are proto-spikes of infection in the UK which could easily grow out of control unless action is taken and I do wonder whether the emphasis on importing cases is, in part, a distraction from what is happening here.

Comparing the local authority cases for w/e 24th July to the average of the two previous weeks:

There are 8 local authorities where the cases have increased more than 100% and more than 15 in number:

Hydburn (156%, 20)
Oldham (222%, 82)
Oxford (138%, 18)
Stockport (158%, 25)
Swindon (134%, 20)
Tameside (130%, 22)
Trafford (275%, 55)
Wolverhampton (218%, 24)

If we expands that to an increase of over 50% and at least 15 cases we add:

Oxfordshire (84%, 26)
Salford (54%, 17)
Sandwell (78%, 39)
West Sussex (67%, 17)

Mostly the number of cases are are fairly limited but we know that infections can grow at an exponential rate so it is important to deal with these, and other, "proto-spikes" early.

Using the download on the PHE Dashboard website I've rehashed the data into a spreadsheet showing the week by week cases for each local authority in England. If anyone is interested I will upload it to Box.net and provide a link to it.

Thanks John,
Yes please I would like to read that spreadsheet.
No second wave, just the first one not going away. Hardly surprising...

[Serial_Apologist]

The government is issuing dire warnings about importing a "second wave" from continental Europe. As valid as that might be there are proto-spikes of infection in the UK which could easily grow out of control unless action is taken and I do wonder whether the emphasis on importing cases is, in part, a distraction from what is happening here.

Comparing the local authority cases for w/e 24th July to the average of the two previous weeks:

There are 8 local authorities where the cases have increased more than 100% and more than 15 in number:

Hydburn (156%, 20)
Oldham (222%, 82)
Oxford (138%, 18)
Stockport (158%, 25)
Swindon (134%, 20)
Tameside (130%, 22)
Trafford (275%, 55)
Wolverhampton (218%, 24)

If we expands that to an increase of over 50% and at least 15 cases we add:

Oxfordshire (84%, 26)
Salford (54%, 17)
Sandwell (78%, 39)
West Sussex (67%, 17)

Mostly the number of cases are are fairly limited but we know that infections can grow at an exponential rate so it is important to deal with these, and other, "proto-spikes" early.

Using the download on the PHE Dashboard website I've rehashed the data into a spreadsheet showing the week by week cases for each local authority in England. If anyone is interested I will upload it to Box.net and provide a link to it.

Does all this indicate that the social solidarity that was demonstrated at the start of the lockdown period is breaking down, the BBC newsreader asked with knowing rhetoric this lunchtime. Who would like to know? And isn't this feeding any excuse that if non-observance of compliances is becoming acceptable, why not just give up and go with the flow?

[johnb]

Thanks John,
Yes please I would like to read that spreadsheet.
No second wave, just the first one not going away. Hardly surprising...

This is a link to an Excel spreadsheet showing weekly cases for each local authority. I haven't included the original PHE data or my intermediate calculations etc as I thought the whole thing might get a bit confusing.

The columns to the right, with a yellow background, are my additions.

The data is sorted by area name.

https://app.box.com/s/x58b1r8aay8ecnwdbdzwe2yab0ufgd5x

[johnb]

Does all this indicate that the social solidarity that was demonstrated at the start of the lockdown period is breaking down, the BBC newsreader asked with knowing rhetoric this lunchtime. Who would like to know? And isn't this feeding any excuse that if non-observance of compliances is becoming acceptable, why not just give up and go with the flow?

It isn't helped that it is quite difficult to keep track of the government's Covid-19 advice. Then there are such oddities as shoppers being required to wear a face mask while shop assistants aren't. That is crazy.

.... and don't ask me who I am allowed to have in my house - I haven't a clue what the current rules are. More and more I am making my own decisions, erring on the side of caution.

Having said all that just under 50% of local authorities had no increase or a reduction in cases (using the same basis as post #3328) and only 52 local authorities (out of 341) had an increase of more than 7 cases in the week.

[teamsaint]

It isn't helped that it is quite difficult to keep track of the government's Covid-19 advice. Then there are such oddities as shoppers being required to wear a face mask while shop assistants aren't. That is crazy.

.... and don't ask me who I am allowed to have in my house - I haven't a clue what the current rules are. More and more I am making my own decisions, erring on the side of caution.

Having said all that just under 50% of local authorities had no increase or a reduction in cases (using the same basis as post #3328) and only 52 local authorities (out of 341) had an increase of more than 7 cases in the week.

Meanwhile in Holland the rules on masks are at least clear.
Probably........

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-netherlands/dutch-government-will-not-advise-public-to-wear-masks-minister-idUSKCN24U2UJ

[Cockney Sparrow]

Prof Carl Heneghan was on Newsnight (after a pre-prepared film) last night at about 31-32 mins from the start. He suggested the government is reacting in a somewhat panicked way. He says there are no excess deaths at the moment and (IIRC) that rises/outbreaks where they occur are best dealt with by the local public health tracing mechanism.

He also said that the government had said it would pause issuing the PHE statistics, and is surprised it can still be found - because it is "highly inaccurate". There also being statistics from NHS and ONS, and for the four nations, just complicate things more.

THey also had a social scientist who (again IIRC) said they did not advise that there would be a problem sustaining public commitment/compliance over a period of full lockdown - the point being it isn't a reason for the government to advance why they delayed the implementation of lockdown.

[johnb]

Prof Carl Heneghan was on Newsnight (after a pre-prepared film) last night....

He also said that the government had said it would pause issuing the PHE statistics, and is surprised it can still be found - because it is "highly inaccurate". There also being statistics from NHS and ONS, and for the four nations, just complicate things more.

I was going to write more fully but I'm tired so will make to with:

This is the article that Carl Heneghan and Yoon K Loke wrote that prompted the government to suspend the PHE death figures (although they can still be found in a downloadable file on the PHE website): https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no...tical-anomaly/

I'm just a fairly ignorant so-and-so but the article strikes me as, dare I say it, a touch glib.

While the discrepancies between the PHE and the ONS deaths need to be looked into, there are other scientists who take a more nuanced stance and at least one of them disagrees with Carl Heneghan about the suspension of the figures:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-way-covid-19-deaths-are-recorded-in-england/

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-pause-of-publication-on-the-dhsc-website-of-phe-dashboard-daily-covid-19-death-figures/

Prof Sheila Bird in: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...-10-july-2020/

[Globaltruth]

This is a link to an Excel spreadsheet showing weekly cases for each local authority. I haven't included the original PHE data or my intermediate calculations etc as I thought the whole thing might get a bit confusing.

The columns to the right, with a yellow background, are my additions.

The data is sorted by area name.

https://app.box.com/s/x58b1r8aay8ecnwdbdzwe2yab0ufgd5x

Thank you.
We have been looking for precisely this info.

If I blow it up to 105% I can even read it!

(seriously - most useful. will be sharing)