Coronavirus

[DracoM]

Wow!
What do we think about that?

[Bryn]

Wow!
What do we think about that?

A few weeks ago I attended A & E at "a major, regional hospital in Surrey" which fits the criteria described by the consultant. I was admitted for approximately 24 hours. I had to wait several hours for a bed to become available (the delay was partly due to the deep cleaning required, even in the COVID-19-free wards. The triage period was far shorter than I expected. The A & E department was very clearly far less busy than it would normally be. The incidence of COVID-19 in the area concerned is very low. That is the case in most of the country. However, earlier in the U.K. outbreak, a good few areas had much higher incidence of the infection. While the local experience of the consultant may suggest to him/her that the pandemic is a myth, I think a wider grasp of the situation and the effect of counter-measures needs to taken into consderation.

[Simon B]

Wow!
What do we think about that?

Sorry, can't think. The 5G radiation at this time of the day has a particularly strong orange-black hue and a strong smell of elderberry kippers with a hint of ectoplasm...

From our correspondent "Tyler Durden"? [Representing: "redemption of masculinity repackaged as the promise of violence in the interests of social and political anarchy"]

Rather than unsourced, unverifiable anecdotal material from recognised repositories of clickbait, crazy conspiracy theories and extremely dodgy financial advice ("Buy Gold! Don't buy gold!"), I prefer the anecdotal evidence of NHS nurses of my acquaintance.

What have they seen through heavy duty PPE whilst working an enormous number of shifts on the front line over the last few months in NHS hospitals around a large relatively deprived city? Short answer - an entirely exceptional cohort of people who had highly distinctive bi-lateral pneumonia with ground glass opacity on their (presumably also all faked) lung scans along with a panoply of other singular symptoms. Many of them ended up dead. Yes, nothing happened at first, the hospital is abnormally quiet otherwise (a matter of public record) and it has largely, but not entirely, fizzled out for now. None of that is in any way surprising.

If we have all been had, it represents a remarkable outbreak of competence and wholesale co-ordination by a government (and whole tranches of the civil service to boot) otherwise apparently barely capable of getting its pants on the right way around of a morning. How likely is that?

[johnb]

Interesting statement.

The author is obvious very upset and raises some very important matters but I think the issues need disentangling, something that we cannot do.

I totally accept that the NHS is gagging its staff, this is in line with their dubious practices in the past, but there are two issues raised that seem at odds with stated NHS/PHE policy.

"The few Covid cases that we have had get repeatedly tested, and every single test counted as a new case. Meaning the figures reported back to ONS/PHE (Office for National Statistics & Public Health England) were almost exponentially inflated. It could be that Covid cases reported by hospitals are between 5 to 10x higher than the real number of cases. There has been no pandemic and this goes a long way to explain why figures for the UK are so much higher than anywhere else in Europe."

The stated policy of the government/NHS/PHE is that where there has been more than one positive tests on a patient only the first positive test is counted. If the tests are carried out within a hospital and processed by NHS/PHE labs, as if highly likely, (so called Pillar 1 testing) this should be easy to achieve as all the tests will be related to the patient's NHS records.

It is more difficult to achieve where some tests have been processed by NHS/PHE labs (Pillar 1) and some by third part labs (Pillar 2) but with those there is an ongoing process of de-duplication.

"Regarding death certification. All staff that are responsible for this have been encouraged where possible to put Covid-19 complications as reason for death, even though the patient may have been asymptomatic and also not even tested for covid. I feel this simply amounts to fraudulently completed death certificates and has been responsible to grossly inflating the number of Covid deaths.

The fact is that regardless of what you actually die of in hospital, it is likely that Covid-19 will feature on your death certificate. I have included with my statement the detailed published guidance from Government on Death Certification which shows how Covid-19, as a factor is encouraged to at least feature on a death certificate."

There are three issues here:

- The guidance used as to whether Covid-19 goes on the death certificate. This isn't made clear what that guidance is so we can't asses whether it is reasonable or not.

- The figures published daily by the government are for Covid-19 deaths where there has been a positive test, regardless of whether Covid-19 has been entered on the death certificate. So even if the author of the statement is 100% correct it would not have inflated the these figures.

Incidentally, since late April NHS England has publish deaths in hospital where there has been a positive tests (which are included in the governments daily figures) and, separately, deaths in hospital where Covid-19 in suspected but where there has been no positive test. Deaths in hospital where Covid-19 is suspected but where there hasn't been a positive test amount to 10% of the total.

- It is the figures from the ONS that are based on what is entered on the death certificate.

- The excess mortality figures published by the ONS do not support the argument that the Covid-19 registered deaths have been grossly inflated.

[teamsaint]

Presumably a good deal of the excess mortality has been exported out to care homes, approx 30000 according to the BBC.
This would explain a good deal, including the very quiet hospitals, where the anecdotal evidence , certainly outside the big conurbations, is pretty compelling.

Nonetheless, there is a great deal to contemplate re removal of rights under legislation, hastily imposed changes in the healthcare system that nobody voted for, the role of care homes in all this, the real ( not anecdotal) risk to non vulnerable ( and indeed vulnerable) groups, net benefits and negafits from lockdown/shielding, increased surveillance etc.

Edit: presumably , if Covid suddenly disappeared, we could expect negative excess mortality over the next 12 months ?

Further edit :Sorry, I was forgetting all the extra deaths from untreated non covid disease in the next 12 months.

[Simon B]

"The few Covid cases that we have had get repeatedly tested, and every single test counted as a new case. Meaning the figures reported back to ONS/PHE (Office for National Statistics & Public Health England) were almost exponentially inflated. It could be that Covid cases reported by hospitals are between 5 to 10x higher than the real number of cases. There has been no pandemic and this goes a long way to explain why figures for the UK are so much higher than anywhere else in Europe."

If this is true, that means that the the real UK Case Fatality Ratio is correspondingly 5x-10x higher than the current estimate. This is a statistical impossibiity in some age groups as >100% of cases would be dying...

It follows that the apparent UK CFR would then be 1/5x-1/10x everyone else's (it isn't) unless they are overcounting cases by the same 5x-10x for whatever reason (so it's not a UK failing) or CV-19 is 5x-10x less deadly in the UK than everywhere else (ludicrous).


For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not in any way defending the UK govt, or the UK's apparent record on any of this.

[Dave2002]

Wow!
What do we think about that?

Interesting, but I note this final comment:

Politicians haven’t changed, the country has just made a fatal mistake and started trusting them without question.

I don't think that all people are trusting politicians without question, but then I haven't changed much. I trust some politicians, even some with Tory leanings, and certainly some of the former ones, far more than the current bunch who are so far a total disaster area - with few exceptions.

Re the substantive message, I think the author has got it wrong - there is enough evidence from other countries that there are severe problems due to this virus, though there may well have been a shift in cases dealt with in the NHS due to the virus. If this is anonymous - why should we give it much credibility? The NHS doctor who resigned over the DC affair was at least brave enough to take a stand.

I'm not blaming this current author if the situation is as he (she) describes, but this does rather muddy the water. How do we know that this isn't one of DT's fake news stories? Are we expected to take it seriously?

[Simon B]

Edit: presumably , if Covid suddenly disappeared, we could expect negative excess mortality over the next 12 months ?

In the short term, this is already happening in some places, e.g. London.

Further edit :Sorry, I was forgetting all the extra deaths from untreated non covid disease in the next 12 months.

Unfortunately, this will presumably be a factor. It already seems to have been up to a point. It is always possible that Sweden could have been right all along. It's also always possible (if very unlikely) that there really was no UK epidemic and all the excess deaths so far (100% over 3 months, something like that) are the unintended consequences of lockdown.

[Serial_Apologist]

Now I'm completely confused!

[oddoneout]

It is his experience and his point of view, and has its place in any consideration of the UK's experience of Covid-19. It would be interesting and useful to have more such articles from others elsewhere in the country, since I would expect there to be considerable differences, not least because in 'normal' times the pattern of disease and mortality differs widely across the country. The matter of what gets written on the death certificate is an ongoing issue regardless of the current situation; my understanding is that there are preferences and pressures that can influence the final decision, and also human fallibility, that can subsequently make data about mortality causes less than completely accurate.
Wiki gives this definition of pandemic

A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν, pan, "all" and δῆμος, demos, "people") is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of people.

on which basis his assertion that there is no/has been no pandemic is perhaps open to debate. Whether the pandemic is as serious as has been portrayed is another, separate, issue in my view.

[LMcD]

Now I'm completely confused!

You've no idea how comforting it is for me to know that I'm not the only one! I'm eagerly awaiting Matt Hancock's 'important announcement' (yeah, right ...)

[DracoM]

.....that he or BJ or everyone might be resigning because they can't cope with DC any more.....aaaarrgghhh!!!!
?Maybe............or was I just awakening from an awful dream?

[Eine Alpensinfonie]

A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν, pan, "all" and δῆμος, demos, "people") is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of people.

And there I was, thinking a pandemic was and epidemic that affects the USA.

[french frank]

Wow!
What do we think about that?

Sorry, haven't read all the posts, so maybe someone else has done duty. What do we think? Check your sources, always check your sources

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

[johnb]

Sorry, haven't read all the posts, so maybe someone else has done duty. What do we think? Check your sources, always check your sources

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

Thanks for pointing to that very informative Wiki entry.

The "statement" includes assertions that don't stack up with publicly available data (e.g. hospital deaths) or with the published government/NHS/PHE methodology (testing). Which brings into question the rest of piece.

I think it needs so be treated with some caution.