Coronavirus

[Petrushka]

Tried a medical mask on today and found it a thoroughly unpleasant experience. My glasses got fogged up and I found it difficult to breathe properly. My brother is an ambulance driver who's been transporting Covid positive patients during the pandemic and he says you get used to the mask though he doesn't like them any more than I do.

[Bryn]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/10/firm-with-links-to-gove-and-cummings-given-covid-19-contract-without-open-tender?CMP=share_btn_fb

[johnb]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...P=share_btn_fb

... and then there is Boris Johnson scheming to get Chris Grayling elected chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee ... Chris Grayling (!). Things get more surreal by the day.

[Dave2002]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...P=share_btn_fb

So they can't even bother to bill properly, or the government can't be bothered to list the work done under the correct headings, eh?

Maybe they did do the work, and the listing was a "genuine mistake"!

What a shower!

[oddoneout]

Tried a medical mask on today and found it a thoroughly unpleasant experience. My glasses got fogged up and I found it difficult to breathe properly. My brother is an ambulance driver who's been transporting Covid positive patients during the pandemic and he says you get used to the mask though he doesn't like them any more than I do.

When the mandatory bus travel mask requirement came in I made a couple of 'straight across masks' - the kind that are a rectangle of fabric pleated horizontally - on a precautionary basis, but found the lack of shaping round the nose not only caused fogging to an unacceptable(ie can't see) level, but also kept shunting my glasses off my nose. I have been sent a couple from a family member who is making them for colleagues and others which are shaped but also have a pocket for a metal strip which can be shaped to the nose and that has improved things considerably. It's rather on the large size though so I'm experimenting with making a slightly smaller version that won't slip around so much.
I agree they are uncomfortable and when, as now, pollen is causing breathing difficulties I am thankful not to be in a situation(as yet) where I have to wear one.

[Dave2002]

Measurements - and why are we doing them?

So - what are we actually measuring, or trying to measure - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/h...eath-rate.html

Earlier on today I read an article from Sky News about how the UK's testing was shambolic - I don't necessarily disagree with that. However, part of the evidence was that some of the work was done on pieces of paper, with numbers scribbled on by ministers and others. That is not "evidence" at all. My first job required me to add up large columns of (mostly IIRC) 4 digit numbers. My first attempt took my about 30 minutes, and (apparently) I was one out at the end. My boss at the time simply ran down the list, which took a minute or so, and then said that I'd almost got it right. Actually I did the sum first in about 15 minutes, then tried again as a check.

After that experience I resolved to do better, and within a very short time i was able to go down the lists and do all the calculations in a couple of minutes. I may well have been faster than my boss by that time. Later on I was asked to audit other columns of figures which had already been done previously, for accuracy. While not everyone now would be able to do those relatively simple calculations, there are people who can do them, and with practice it's possible to start to really speed the calculations up. If doing the calculations that way, the requirement is "simply" to employ people with the mental acuity to do it, and to learn to do the process faster.

OK - with modern computers those lists of figures could be added up in under a second, but a big issue would be the data entry. It would probablhy take longer than a couple of minutes to type the data in, so working with hand written data is in itself, not strong evidence of a poor process.

If the data is already reliable, and in a machine readable form, such as a bar code or RFID data, then data collection and automation can produce significant increases in speed, but it takes a little while to develop systems to do that. There almost certainly were very significant failings in the development of a tentative measurement and test and trace system, which could and should have been avoided, but news reporting which suggests that doing calculations with pen and paper is evidence of poor processes is not convincing.

[LMcD]

I'm nowhere near as skilled as some Forumistas when it comes to interpreting death toll figures, but as far as I can make out there were 148 deaths in the UK in the latest reporting period, none of them in Scotland, and the Saturday figure was double that from a week earlier. Is it simplistic to see this latter fact as having something to do with the easing of restrictions? As for whether and where I should wear a mask - or face covering of some sort - I'm pretty confused. I do know that I must wear a mask - or face covering on the bus - and do so, but when it comes to wearing one in shops and/or confined spaces - well, your guess is as good as mine, or possibly much better!

[Serial_Apologist]

I'm nowhere near as skilled as some Forumistas when it comes to interpreting death toll figures, but as far as I can make out there were 148 deaths in the UK in the latest reporting period, none of them in Scotland, and the Saturday figure was double that from a week earlier. Is it simplistic to see this latter fact as having something to do with the easing of restrictions? As for whether and where I should wear a mask - or face covering of some sort - I'm pretty confused. I do know that I must wear a mask - or face covering on the bus - and do so, but when it comes to wearing one in shops and/or confined spaces - well, your guess is as good as mine, or possibly much better!

My own practice re the wearing of masks is that, for shopping purposes, I always take one with me, but only put it on if there are others within distance of whom I might be infective, or who are themselves not wearing a mask. Often - but not always - the checkout person will be wearing a mask - but there will always be a perspex shield between me and him or her which I regard as being as protective as wearing a vizor. For outdoor activities I just keep to the old 2 metre gap.

[johnb]

I'm nowhere near as skilled as some Forumistas when it comes to interpreting death toll figures, but as far as I can make out there were 148 deaths in the UK in the latest reporting period, none of them in Scotland, and the Saturday figure was double that from a week earlier. Is it simplistic to see this latter fact as having something to do with the easing of restrictions? As for whether and where I should wear a mask - or face covering of some sort - I'm pretty confused. I do know that I must wear a mask - or face covering on the bus - and do so, but when it comes to wearing one in shops and/or confined spaces - well, your guess is as good as mine, or possibly much better!

I've looked at the 148 figure and found:

Deaths in Wales: 1
No Deaths in Scotland or NI
Therefore deaths in England: 147

Hospital deaths in England: 38
Therefore non-hospital deaths in England: 109

We know that the overwhelming majority of non-hospital deaths in the past have been in care homes so it isn't unreasonable to assume that most of those 109 non-hospital deaths also happened in care homes.

We have two separate though linked epidemics:

- that in the general community, represented by the 38 hospital deaths

- that in care homes where Covid-19 has not been brought under control to the same extent as it has in the general community. Bear in mind that these figures are for confirmed Covid cases - there will be many more deaths in care homes where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate but where there has not been a positive test. This is both tragic and scandalous IMO.

More about masks later.

[teamsaint]

I'm nowhere near as skilled as some Forumistas when it comes to interpreting death toll figures, but as far as I can make out there were 148 deaths in the UK in the latest reporting period, none of them in Scotland, and the Saturday figure was double that from a week earlier. Is it simplistic to see this latter fact as having something to do with the easing of restrictions? As for whether and where I should wear a mask - or face covering of some sort - I'm pretty confused. I do know that I must wear a mask - or face covering on the bus - and do so, but when it comes to wearing one in shops and/or confined spaces - well, your guess is as good as mine, or possibly much better!

Re masks, the easy way is to read a range of newspapers, and go with whichever view you prefer. The Guardian is running a very heavy campaign to get everbody wearing masks all the time, even though even they can’t make a really solid case for them in most situations.
Personally, I take one with me , and would use it if I felt it was appropriate. In all the shops I have so far visited, I am happy with hand sanitiser on the way in and out , and the distancing and other measures that are in place.

[johnb]

Out of interest - this shows the daily reported deaths of Covid-19 confirmed cases for the last 8 days:

Date		Total	Deaths 	Hosp	Non-Hosp *
		UK	England	Deaths	Deaths
04/07/2020	 67	 59	39	 20
05/07/2020	 22	 21	18	  3 (Sun)
06/07/2020	 16	 16	15	  1 (Mon)
07/07/2020	155	152	36	116
08/07/2020	126	121	42	 79
09/07/2020	 85	 82	22	 60
10/07/2020	 48	 48	22	 26
11/07/2020	148	147	38	109

* presumably mostly in care homes

Apologies for initial incorrect table (I had the hosp deaths out by 1 day).

Later Edit: The accuracy of the daily death figures from PHE (used in the above table) have now been called into question and their publication has been suspended while a review is undertaken. Please disregard the table as it is based on this inaccurate data.

[teamsaint]

I see that the serfs have been ordered back to work.
I have news for the overlords, on several counts.
1. Most of them don't have much choice in the matter.
2. It seems to have now dawned on the feudal masters that the peasants spend an awful lot of their wages on getting to work, buying lunch, having a beer to recover at 6.00 etc.
But the genie is well and truly out of the bag now . 2 /3 days a week ( or more) working from home for many office staff is going to be the new world. The 5 day a week, everybody at their desk 8.20 to 5.00 world has gone. And we are all going to have to get used to that, and sadly there will be collateral damage, hopefully on the way to much better working practices.

[Dave2002]

I see that the serfs have been ordered back to work.
I have news for the overlords, on several counts.
1. Most of them don't have much choice in the matter.
2. It seems to have now dawned on the feudal masters that the peasants spend an awful lot of their wages on getting to work, buying lunch, having a beer to recover at 6.00 etc.
But the genie is well and truly out of the bag now . 2 /3 days a week ( or more) working from home for many office staff is going to be the new world. The 5 day a week, everybody at their desk 8.20 to 5.00 world has gone. And we are all going to have to get used to that, and sadly there will be collateral damage, hopefully on the way to much better working practices.

Let's hope you're right. I know of one person (highly paid) who now does not want to go back to commuting/full time work, as he can do all - or perhaps 90% of his work from home. His boss is anally retentive and wants everyone in at their desks. What his boss may not realise is that people in his employee's position may look for new jobs, and they will either bargain for better (for them) working conditions at the same or higher salary, or will simply take up offers closer to home for a lower salary.

The serfs (even very highly paid ones) are starting to realise that there's more to life than trundling in to offices each morning, and back out again like lemmings with everyone else.

I also know other people who say that actually their productivity has gone up in most aspects of their work during the current period, and discussing one area where I thought that face to face contact would be important I was shot down in flames - that's team meetings. Seemingly these are now much more efficient, there's a saving in travel costs, but the work actually gets done in about half the time, thus releasing time for other activities. This is apparently generally agreed by members of the team.

There will be areas of work which do require more contact, and more supervision etc., but perhaps these are only about 10% of most people's work. Bosses will feel left out though - as many have the problem mentioned a couple of paras up.

i had thought that the current conditions might lead to more use of local business centres, but some have a feeling that is not going to happen - most people would rather work from home, with much less frequent visits to a centralised work place, rather than working remotely, but in a local hub. I don't know if that is really going to turn out to be a strong preference.

There are problems for some people though - but not necessarily for many in the regular workforce. Some people with poor hearing find that online meetings are very difficult, and apart from not being able to hear well, they are not able to lip read either, which some people use as a compensating strategy. These are issues which need to be addressed constructively, and sensitively.

[LMcD]

Re masks, the easy way is to read a range of newspapers, and go with whichever view you prefer. The Guardian is running a very heavy campaign to get everbody wearing masks all the time, even though even they can’t make a really solid case for them in most situations.
Personally, I take one with me , and would use it if I felt it was appropriate. In all the shops I have so far visited, I am happy with hand sanitiser on the way in and out , and the distancing and other measures that are in place.

That's my current policy. If a shop indicates that it requires its customers to wear a mask or other face covering, I'm happy to do so, otherwise I shall follow my instincts and endeavour to behave responsibly. It would be helpful if the powers that be all sang from the same hymn sheet!

[oddoneout]

[/U][/B]

That's my current policy. If a shop indicates that it requires its customers to wear a mask or other face covering, I'm happy to do so, otherwise I shall follow my instincts and endeavour to behave responsibly. It would be helpful if the powers that be all sang from the same hymn sheet!

With the current shower that wouldn't necessarily help as some would be holding it upside down or singing the wrong number hymn...