Coronavirus

[oddoneout]

Here I find myself almost defending the government and the people trying to get things done. It'll perhaps be easy, with hindsight, to spot the many things which haven't been done correctly. I'm guessing that one of the fundamental problems is that the UK was to a considerable extent unprepared for this disease

No-one was prepared for this specific disease, but the outcome of the Exercise Cygnus in 2016(as opposed to the Govt PR machine widely quoted preparedness rankings subsequently quoted which as far as I could make out were simply a tick box exercise of what plans were theoretically in place but no examination of what physically was in place in terms of things like PPE) showed very clearly that the UK wasn't even prepared for a flu pandemic, so was starting from an even bigger disadvantage in tackling Covid-19. The subsequent refusal to look at what resources were already available or could quickly be brought into play for things like testing and PPE, instead making things up and awarding contracts on no proven basis compounded the problems faced. Reading repeatedly, over the weeks, reports of facilities and staff waiting for people to test, tests to analyse, materials for making scrubs etc, and of firms offering help being ignored in favour of government options with no relevant skills or track record, does not incline me to give the government any leeway at all in terms of its handling of the crisis. NHS staff getting the PPE kit they needed if schools and sewing groups made it for them is and should be a part of a concerted effort to tackle a problem; having to rely on it as the only source weeks after an emergency has been recognised is not commendable. Hospitals having to provide testing for local areas or taking it back in-house due to deficiencies in the official route as a temporary response to teething problems is one thing, having to do it because the official route continues to be completely unfit for purpose is another altogether.
Yes I have generalised, but my comments are based on reading non-government material, and what friends and others have reported of their own experience, not simple anti-Tory sentiment.

[Dave2002]

Hopefully we're all in broadly in agreement here - that this has been a shambolic mess. Some people have been doing a lot to try and dig us out of this ordure, but the government PR machine has been working overtime putting out rubbish statements, and ducking many issues.

Re learning lessons - dare I mention Grenfell? ... plus also a number of other cases where there have been disasters, catastrophes, poor planning, and "lessons learnt".

[oddoneout]

Hopefully we're all in broadly in agreement here - that this has been a shambolic mess. Some people have been doing a lot to try and dig us out of this ordure, but the government PR machine has been working overtime putting out rubbish statements, and ducking many issues.

Re learning lessons - dare I mention Grenfell? ... plus also a number of other cases where there have been disasters, catastrophes, poor planning, and "lessons learnt".

Increasingly I find myself thinking that 'lessons learned' is political shorthand for'how do we make sure we don't get found out/made liable next time'...

[Dave2002]

Increasingly I find myself thinking that 'lessons learned' is political shorthand for'how do we make sure we don't get found out/made liable next time'...

It goes like this:

1. It's too early to tell, or do anything ..... (coded words for "we're not going to do anything about it ... perhaps", or just "B***** off")

2. We are of course very sorry, and these things will be looked at.

3. We are going to review this in due course and lessons will be learnt ....

4 ...... ZILCH!

Oh - I forgot the interjections...

a. That's a very interesting question ....

b. I'm glad you raised that point .....

c. Thank you for asking about that ....

etc. followed by "waffle, waffle, waffle".

[Serial_Apologist]

It goes like this:

1. It's too early to tell, or do anything ..... (coded words for "we're not going to do anything about it ... perhaps", or just "B***** off")

2. We are of course very sorry, and these things will be looked at.

3. We are going to review this in due course and lessons will be learnt ....

4 ...... ZILCH!

Oh - I forgot the interjections...

a. That's a very interesting question ....

b. I'm glad you raised that point .....

c. Thank you for asking about that ....

etc. followed by "waffle, waffle, waffle".

Or "The government will be introducing a Green paper on this very subject next week, on which, obviously, it would not be right for me to pre-empt by discussing it on television".

[DracoM]

Yes, yes, YES! Daily, daily, DAILY bs.

[Frances_iom]

I always used to be amazed at the incompetence usually brought about by corruption of many third world countries - I think now the Tories have demonstrated that England has become a leader in this third world club - after all it's now determined by who meets who at fundraising dinners that counts.

[oddoneout]

I always used to be amazed at the incompetence usually brought about by corruption of many third world countries - I think now the Tories have demonstrated that England has become a leader in this third world club - after all it's now determined by who meets who at fundraising dinners that counts.

Surely that's the way things have always operated here though isn't it? That's why you send your male child to Eton, Harrow et al, so they can meet the right people and move in the right circles to learn how to become 'captains of industry', competent at steering money into their home ports produced by the industry of others, but incompetent at doing anything of value.

[johnb]

The government has changed the information provided on the "Coronavirus cases in the UK: daily updated statistics " website and has also altered what is contained in the downloadable "time series of testing statistics: 4 July 2020" csv file.

Up until now no data has been made available on the percentage of sent out testing kits that have ultimately been returned and processed. However the website states:

"As of 9am on 2 July, there have been 10,340,511 tests (either processed or sent out) across all 4 pillars in the UK. Of these, 7,932,582 tests were processed in total."

This only gives the information for all testing pillars rather than for pillar 2 sent out kits.

There are sent out tests for both pillar 2 testing (which we are interested in) and also for pillar 4 testing (which is the serology survey to gather information on Covid-19 prevalence). However, 84% of the sent out tests are for pillar 2.

So I've looked at the data file and it is possible to calculate the number of sent out kits and the number that have been processed for pillar 2 and pillar 4 combined. Not ideal but it will be near enough.

Of the

I hope I've made a silly mistake in my calculations (which is quite possible) but I have come up with:

Cumulative testing kits sent out: 3,710,173
Cumulative testing kits processed: 1,302,244 = 35%

That is so low that I seriously wonder whether my calculation is cr*p.

However, there will be sent out kits in the "post" to the patient, with the patient and in the "post" back to the lab. So if we are generous and say that there are 7 days of sent out test that are in transit that would bring the percentage of sent out tests that are returned and processed up to 41%. Still very low.

[oddoneout]

When you say testing kits processed does that mean giving a valid result? Or would one have to subtract from that low figure even more?
Your figure is low but I don't find it unbelievable.
I've just found this article https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9581746.html and from what I can read round the privacy box your figure is in the right area.
I wonder how the return rate compares with the home tests for bowel cancer screening?

[johnb]

When you say testing kits processed does that mean giving a valid result? Or would one have to subtract from that low figure even more?

I take it that the terminology "tests processed" that the government uses includes all tests that are processed, whether the result is positive or negative.

Thanks for the link to the Indy article.

[Dave2002]

Merthyr Tydfil seems to be a new hotspot - Coronavirus lockdowns: Where is next after Leicester? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53280238

[oddoneout]

I take it that the terminology "tests processed" that the government uses includes all tests that are processed, whether the result is positive or negative.

Thanks for the link to the Indy article.

I was thinking of tests that do not produce a valid result either way - void tests. It is a particular risk with DIY tests as taking the samples correctly is not easy. A friend who does this regularly for the ONS scheme said she didn't know how good her samples were as sticking a stick down your throat is hard at the best of times(!) but having to avoid various things such as tonsils at the same time makes it even more difficult.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/revealed-90-000-void-uk-covid-tests

https://www.mkfm.com/news/local-news/thousands-of-coronavirus-tests-in-milton-keynes-lighthouse-lab-are-unclear/

Including those tests in the numbers disseminated to the public may be deemed a good political move('hitting targets for testing') but has implications for useful data I would argue?

[Dave2002]

Now you can really stay alert, and watch out for this.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/interactive/inside-the-coronavirus/

There’s a 3D model which spins - worth seeing, but otherwise there is a less animated version of the article.

[Bryn]

Now you can really stay alert, and watch out for this.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/interactive/inside-the-coronavirus/

There’s a 3D model which spins - worth seeing, but otherwise there is a less animated version of the article.

Good find!