Coronavirus

[Count Boso]

Not sure its going to be possible to follow the data in future:

"Brazil stops releasing Covid-19 death toll and wipes data from official site"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-official-site

It looks as if people have been adding the daily figures to the cumulative ones already published to get totals. Genius. Brazil deaths now about 2,500 short of the UK's.

[Cockney Sparrow]

Radio 4 News this morning - Brazil (Supreme?) Court orders figures to be published. (Not sure about compliance in Brazil so have to see what happens).

Radio 4 "More or Less" this morning sounded very interesting, as ever on the matter of the fatality statistics, including an interview with an FT guy about their approach to establishing the best data. I wasn't able to give it my full attention, and it needs that. I'll listen again later.
Also an item about how home test kits have been pushed by pharma on shaky reliability data (frankly: misrepresented).

[Frances_iom]

one point Itook from that truely excellent "More or less" program is that the initial delay in applying lockdown + thus bringing over 10,000 to an early death as well as requiring a longer lockdown was partly caused by the inability of the Imperial College group (or their rep on Sage) to reconsider their initial model based on Wuhan data (and one thing I think we can be sure of is that these figures were manipulated) and look at the later findings both reported from UK data + also EU data (arrogance in leadership of certain 'high profile' academic institutions is not new - 40+_ yrs ago I met the same in certain Cambridge IT depts that who were the serfs that dared question them)

The other was that many (majority I think) of cases came in via the unchecked mostly airline passengers - if anything can be learnt it is to shut down such conduits at the earliest opportunity.

Maybe the accurate destruction of Gov statistics is one reason for the program coming off after next week - there was another excellent 15 slot after More or less looking at what were 18B internments (the hardcore Fascists many of whom landed up on IoM) + the children's comments that their father's beliefs were prevalent at time and in their opinion can still be seen in higher levels of government.

[Cockney Sparrow]

We've been told (daily briefing) that the easing of lockdown is a very dangerous time. One thing the BBC could do would be to bring back "More or Less" very soon, or next week if possible - as it is a superb resource to counter the Ministry of Truth dominated by Cummings and his puppets.

I don't think it has been structured as a weekly programme - it runs for so many shows at a time.
Probably much more important than a new BAL (although we aren't getting those anyway). It occurs to me that the 2 hander discussions on "More or Less" are a darn sight more relevant and productive than on..........

[Count Boso]

Goodness me - just looking at the Wiki table at this very minute as I write, it shows total number of deaths worldwide as 411, 279 and the total deaths in the UK as 41,128. What are the chances of that?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data

Bah! Too late, global figure now 416,201. For one brief, shimmering moment - and I was there!

[MrGongGong]

Let's hope this is successful

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/12/matt-hancock-faces-legal-action-from-daughter-of-covid-19-care-home-victim

We see you Boris and the sooner you are placed beyond use the better for the world

[oddoneout]

This could just as well have gone in the Jokes, but fits here as well in summing up the distortion of reality that has been a hallmark of the management of the Covid-19 crisis.
A BTL comment to John Crace's 11th June column.

sqrl13h ago
It is proof of the UK's astonishing, world-beating capacity for contact tracing that there is not enough demand to meet our supply.

[LezLee]

Goodness me - just looking at the Wiki table at this very minute as I write, it shows total number of deaths worldwide as 411, 279 and the total deaths in the UK as 41,128. What are the chances of that?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data

Bah! Too late, global figure now 416,201. For one brief, shimmering moment - and I was there!

Pretty close call today as well:
Confirmed cases:
England
156,018

Scotland
15,682

[Dave2002]

I don't know what the way forward is now. There are a few possibiities it seems to me. One is that CV-19 will be endemic, but at a low level. Some people will still catch it, but it won't affect them much. People in older age groups and vulnerable people will have a few options. Try to avoid catching it, or catch it and surivive, or catch it and take the other path ....

Another possibility is complete eradication, but that seems unlikely at the moment. This would be a good option if it could be eliminated completely, world wide. This seems very unlikely right now. That approach has been adopted with diseases like polio and smallpox.

Vaccines and therapeutic medicines are seemingly the approaches which are thought most practical at the present time, together with other management strategies.

Of course it may all just fizzle out spontaneously, for uncertain reasons.

In the meantime I'm still keeping well away from areas where I might catch this disease.

[Bryn]

On Monday I went to my nearest A & E facility with a problem (successfully resolved) that required a colonoscopy. Face coverings were generally in evidence but I made a point of taking a pack of ten 3-ply masks with me, 'just in case'. In the first waiting room, I made one of them available to another patient who had come unprepared. Only some time later did a nurse come round with disposable masks for newly arriving patients. I was surprised to see some staff-members going unmasked. This was all well away from the COVID-19 area of the hospital. After an initial examination, I was swab-tested in throat and nose. However, when I enquired when I might be informed of the result, I was advised that a policy of 'no news is good news' applied. The results would be through in 6 to 7 hours but only those showing positive would be contacted. While I appreciate the need to avoid unnecessary paperwork, etc., I think I would provide greater reassurance to those tested to be advised of negative, as well as positive, results. I was kept in overnight, so I am to assume my test showed a negative result.

[LezLee]

On Monday I went to my nearest A & E facility with a problem (successfully resolved) that required a colonoscopy. Face coverings were generally in evidence but I made a point of taking a pack of ten 3-ply masks with me, 'just in case'. In the first waiting room, I made one of them available to another patient who had come unprepared. Only some time later did a nurse come round with disposable masks for newly arriving patients. I was surprised to see some staff-members going unmasked. This was all well away from the COVID-19 area of the hospital. After an initial examination, I was swab-tested in throat and nose. However, when I enquired when I might be informed of the result, I was advised that a policy of 'no news is good news' applied. The results would be thorough in 6 to 7 hours but only those showing positive would be contacted. While I appreciate the need to avoid unnecessary paperwork, etc., I think I would provide greater reassurance to those tested to be advised of negative, as well as positive, results. I was kept in overnight, so I am to assume my test showed a negative result.

Would also be useful as proof in other medical situations?

[Beresford]

Here is an interesting map of the geography of Covid-19 deaths in the UK.
In section six it shows the deaths per "Middle Layer Super Output Areas" which seems to mean areas with the same population, about 10-20k. In Cumbria, which has a very high rate per 100k population, it shows that most of the deaths are in the surrounding areas (where I live), rather than the Lake District.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april#local-authorities

As it was published on 1st May, I expect a revised edition on 1st June.

Revised edition now out. Shows many things, such as the many individual areas that have similar death rates per 100k to most places in London.

[DracoM]

In Cumbria, far and away the greatest intensity is the west coast of the county.

[Cockney Sparrow]

One evening this week (probably Wednesday, Tuesday or Thursday in that order - recollecting as best I can) Newsnight BBC 2 had a report from Barrow trying to unravel why the reported rate is high.

I can't quite recall the conclusions (might have been a mixture - from vague memory for some reason a lot/or more testing so more positive results - the town has a lot of housing in very close together situations and is also economically (and so in respect of health) deprived. The director of public health discussed what he had found from his efforts to unravel the reality behind the statistic.

[Dave2002]

Revised edition now out. Shows many things, such as the many individual areas that have similar death rates per 100k to most places in London.

Is there an updated map? I only found tables and charts with data up to 29th May. The map I can see has data up to the second half of April.