Coronavirus

[Braunschlag]

I find this article very interesting. Yes, contrary to expectations, I do read the Grauniad regularly even though I disagree with many of its columnists. Jenkins raises some good points here about the direction the UK has gone.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/15/europe-emerges-lockdown-question-hangs-was-sweden-right

[Pulcinella]

I find this article very interesting. Yes, contrary to expectations, I do read the Grauniad regularly even though I disagree with many of its columnists. Jenkins raises some good points here about the direction the UK has gone.


https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...s-sweden-right

Jenkins says this:
I believe early criticism of Boris Johnson was unfair.

I, and I suspect many others, would beg to differ.
Johnson was conspicuously absent when it mattered most, as is his wont.
And the consequences of that will be his, and the country's, legacy.

[jayne lee wilson]

I find this article very interesting. Yes, contrary to expectations, I do read the Grauniad regularly even though I disagree with many of its columnists. Jenkins raises some good points here about the direction the UK has gone.


https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...s-sweden-right

"Grauniad"? it really is long, long overdue to stop calling it that.......yawn......etc...

Sometimes the anecdotes are significant... with BJ, the shaking-hands-in-hospital, the attendance-with-pregnant-partner at a major Rugby fixture.... Cheltenham Festival, 3000 Atletico fans in Liverpool 11 March for the CL game after Spain had already cancelled such events...

If it shows nothing else (!!) it displays insouciance vacillation and hesitation....
Or as the businesswoman in me would say: everything comes from the top...

[vinteuil]

I find this article very interesting. Yes, contrary to expectations, I do read the Grauniad regularly even though I disagree with many of its columnists. Jenkins raises some good points here about the direction the UK has gone.


https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...s-sweden-right

... as a Guardian reader you will have no doubt enjoyed this appreciation of Boris Johnson -

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/15/boris-johnson-votewinning-optimism-reality-ronald-reagan-half-truths

.

[johnb]

I find this article very interesting. Yes, contrary to expectations, I do read the Grauniad regularly even though I disagree with many of its columnists. Jenkins raises some good points here about the direction the UK has gone.


https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...s-sweden-right

It is an interesting article and perhaps SJ is right in thinking that Sweden's approach has been preferable to that of the UK. But (and this is a big "but") that is just one commentator's ruminations. What we need is a detailed study of all the various factors, in both Sweden and the UK.

Two things that rather leapt out at me from the article were

"I believe early criticism of Boris Johnson was unfair. He had a respectable case for proceeding on an evidence-based approach, had he only concentrated his attention on the high-risk health and care sectors. In his U-turn he opted for the politics of fear."

BJ took a very casual approach to the impending pandemic. Coronavirus didn't fit with his vision (or "delusion", depending on your viewpoint) of a swashbuckling global Britain.

"I share the view of scientists such as Cambridge’s David Spiegelhalter and Oxford’s Carl Heneghan that this virus is unprecedented in its infectiousness, but that it will pass."

I find it difficult to believe that those two scientists said that "it will pass". That seems a tad over optimistic at this stage.

[Braunschlag]

A reader yes, not necessarily a supporter though! What struck me is the idea that lockdown is/was the only way out of it. I can’t suggest an alternative but was it the only way? Were we sold a dud based on the idea that it would overwhelm the NHS? How come there’s suddenly a skip full of cash materialised to pay for it all (yes, I can see that we’ll all stump up for that eventually). And then that announcement yesterday that 26% of deaths had diabetes as an underlying condition - blithely reported as just that by the BBC on the morning news - they did at least add that it didn’t distinguish between types 1 & 2 in a later bulletin but even that doesn’t give the whole story. I imagine a fair few with type 2 (me included) might have been perturbed by that announcement. I wasn’t bothered in the least, not because I was blasé but on the grounds that it was incomplete data. What on earth were the NHS thinking of when they released that statement?

I find it difficult now to believe any of the stats, the advice or the projections when we seem to be given so little real information. There’s almost too much now to be able to make any reasoned judgements for the public. It’s an unholy mess all round and it’s not just those in power who should be taking the rap.

[Braunschlag]

[QUOTE=jayne lee wilson;792865]"Grauniad"? it really is long, long overdue to stop calling it that.......yawn......etc...

Write to Private Eye then

[Count Boso]

"I share the view of scientists such as Cambridge’s David Spiegelhalter and Oxford’s Carl Heneghan that this virus is unprecedented in its infectiousness, but that it will pass."

I find it difficult to believe that those two scientists said that "it will pass". That seems a tad over optimistic at this stage.

This Profesor Spiegenhalter? What he said or what someone said he said?

"Professor Spiegelhalter has become increasingly critical of ministers in recent days after they misrepresented an article in which he suggested that it was hard to compare international death rates from Covid-19.

Appearing on The Andrew Marr Show on BBC One, he asked why it was only now that the Office for National Statistics was attempting to find out how many people had had the disease. “It is extraordinary that we don’t know these basic facts yet,” he said.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sir-david-spiegelhalter-criticises-ministers-over-failure-to-prioritise-random-covid-19-testing-lzv2ttxsc

An article on Covid-19 mortality comparisons written by Sir David was used by the Prime Minister at Wednesday’s PMQs, to support his arguments for not comparing nations’ death tolls.

The statistician responded to clarify that he had not disavowed all international comparisons, but had warned against ranking countries, such as those with higher numbers of deaths.

He said: "I felt forced, and my colleagues encouraged me, to go public and say 'Please don't do this, it's not what I meant, don't use this to make this claim that we can't make comparisons'."

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-top-statistician-boris-johnson-decries-government-number-theatre-2848324

[Dave2002]

Today one source is claiming

Coronavirus could be 'wiped out in London in weeks' - but what's the picture in the rest of England?
The number of people becoming infected with coronavirus each day in London has fallen to 24, while the North East of England is seeing around 4,000 new infections daily, research suggests.

Read in Sky News: https://apple.news/AQChr2oq-SKqjEdQMD53_xQ

The claim is that in London (whatever that is - centre, within the M25?), the rate of halving is 3.5 days (I think though that Vallance mentioned it is now 6 days a while back).

If the halving rate is 3.5 days, and if we assume that the article means about 3 weeks, then the reduction factor would be approx 1/64 in that time, so approximately 24/64 (!!) people would still have the disease within that area - however defined.

For the North East with 4000 daily infections, even if that area were to immediately achieve a halving rate of as low as 3.5 days, it would take at least 12*3.5 = 42 days for the infections to be down to single figures. That's at least 6 weeks.

One issue must be that if the infections become very low, on the one hand - they become easy to detect and trace .... mmmm .... maybe on the other hand --- they become hard to detect and trace....??? !!! With a long incubation period, although it is desirable to get the infections down to very low numbers in any area, we think that it may still be possible to get out of hand, even from just one infected persion, yet despite all the bluster about track and trace, it will probably be very hard for various reasons. EIther there will be a lot of people reporting illnesses which turn out not to be CV19, or too few, and it would only take one or two to be missed in order to have the problem reappear. I hope that things will be better than that.

I am also still reading in some sources that a very signifcant (maybe 25%) of the UK population have "been exposed" to the virus - does that mean infected? That's a lot of people, around 17 million people, so that there might be some form of herd immunity - but I have no idea what the scientific justification for such claims is. If indeed such a significant proportion had been infected, and survived, then the notion of herd immunity would not be so implausible, but I think this is still very much in doubt, and not in accord with the data we have been given. I assume that such thoughts are still highly speculative, and until there is a strong justification for such claims, they should be disregarded.

I also read, sadly, that in the US some doctors are being abused by virus deniers. People who claim that the evidence for CV-19 is fake, and indeed that CV-19 itself is fake, though in the meantime people are not only dying of the disease, but also of quack medicines including bleach, either drunk in some diluted form, or injected, as "recommended" by peddlers of appalling disinformation.

[Count Boso]

... as a Guardian reader you will have no doubt enjoyed this appreciation of Boris Johnson -

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/15/boris-johnson-votewinning-optimism-reality-ronald-reagan-half-truths

.

I like the idea of members of the public being 'political fantasists' as well. It explains a lot.

[Dave2002]

"Grauniad"? it really is long, long overdue to stop calling it that.......yawn......etc...

Am I bovvered? You could call it "Grandiaun" ... or even ... Gardiaun" ... for a change ...

[jayne lee wilson]

Am I bovvered? You could call it "Grandiaun" ... or even ... Gardiaun" ... for a change ...

The problem is that these boards are dominated now by Coronavirus and Complaint (and nostalgia - Complaint's sentimental relative - partly my fault for starting the TV Tunes thread, but I'd hoped for a few more recent offerings....)....

OK I get why of course and I've learnt much from this very thread, excellent in itself, but I miss the serious listening that we used to share so much more widely..... so little music here now....& without The Proms to focus the attention, well....

[jayne lee wilson]

[QUOTE=Braunschlag;792889]

"Grauniad"? it really is long, long overdue to stop calling it that.......yawn......etc...

Write to Private Eye then

Even more dated than "Grauniad"....on and on it goes in its hopelessly cramped typefaces...... website better & some funny front pages though....

[Cockney Sparrow]

What's not dated about the Eye is the light it shines on the back-scratching, sub-optimal and outright corruption amongst local and national Government, Politicians, Business, the Rich and party funders amongst others. And the outright hypocrisy and base morality of the press (in particular) and other media forms. (Including cynical use of ultra low paid journalist foot soldiers without any security of employment at The Guardian....)

Add to that informed opinion from those at the coal face of industries - power providers, transport services, etc and its worth reading. The quality of the humour may vary but nonetheless all in all, its worth paying for.

[Braunschlag]

For the price of a ‘quality’ daily it’s excellent value. I try to read two decent papers to get a broad range of opinion and then balance it out with Private Eye. Yes, those front pages continue to amuse, can’t see why the typefaces are a problem, it’s a pleasant bit of nostalgia.