Coronavirus

[Pulcinella]

Another damning indictment here:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/19/disabled-people-left-off-coronavirus-vulnerable-list-go-without-food

[oddoneout]

For the sake of the those (patients and NHS staff) directly affected I welcome any amelioration in the mortality figures and (unknown) infection rates, but in other respects it worries me. I think it is safe to say that the government lacks the skills and judgement to decide when the disease has ceased to be a major threat, has no plans for how to manage the country 'post-coronavirus', no ability to construct such plans, and in any case will be focusing on that other disruption that never went away - Brexit. I can see it being the PM's big comeback - 'We've beaten coronavirus, we can lift restrictions, and now we can forge ahead with our most important task...' He disappears on paternity leave which segues into summer recess and the country yet again drifts across uncharted and almost certainly hostile seas, without supplies, navigation, captain or crew. Although thinking about it the lack of captain and crew, on current performance, is probably a bonus...

[Dave2002]

Although thinking about it the lack of captain and crew, on current performance, is probably a bonus...

Wasn’t a similar point made around Msg 1730?

[Jazzrook]

Why do viruses jump from animals to humans?

https://blogs.royalsociety.org/publishing/why-do-viruses-jump-from-animals-to-humans-covid/

JR

[oddoneout]

Wasn’t a similar point made around Msg 1730?

Indeed, but bears repeating in my opinion!

[Dave2002]

Indeed, but bears repeating in my opinion!

I’ll go with that.

[greenilex]

Perhaps worth pointing out that next week we have Workers Memorial Day, just before May Day, when normally we gather to remember people killed on the job or by the after-effects of the job...particularly relevant for health workers just now.

Usuall we would meet by a commemorative bench in the Parks here, but this year I guess the event will be online.

[LHC]

There is an interesting analysis on Twitter of the timeline of scientific advice given to the Govt:

https://twitter.com/MudgeNick/status/1251889149054988291

The author is an NHS scientist, and contrary to the narrative being presented by the Sunday Times and other publications, he suggests the evidence from the NERVTAG Minutes and the SPI-M primary document on viral pandemic planning show a timeline of unfolding events, discussion and govt advice which would appear to have been followed meticulously.

Anyway, I thought some of you might find the thread interesting.

[Dave2002]

There is an interesting analysis on Twitter of the timeline of scientific advice given to the Govt:

https://twitter.com/MudgeNick/status/1251889149054988291

The author is an NHS scientist, and contrary to the narrative being presented by the Sunday Times and other publications, he suggests the evidence from the NERVTAG Minutes and the SPI-M primary document on viral pandemic planning show a timeline of unfolding events, discussion and govt advice which would appear to have been followed meticulously.

Anyway, I thought some of you might find the thread interesting.

I looked at this. It does seem that there was awareness before most of us knew, and the initial assessments were that the threats were low. It's perhaps still far to early to judge, but we were told about "the right actions at the right time" on several occasions. The right action was taken - eventually - IMO - to impose social distancing - but is is possible that a slightly early decision would have reduced the current death rate considerably. It is fairly clear that other countries were slightly ahead in this, and the UK didn't seem to take note of that. It is hard to see how you can determine that advice was followed "meticulously". I can neither confirm nor deny that.

[oddoneout]

Perhaps worth pointing out that next week we have Workers Memorial Day, just before May Day, when normally we gather to remember people killed on the job or by the after-effects of the job...particularly relevant for health workers just now.

Usuall we would meet by a commemorative bench in the Parks here, but this year I guess the event will be online.

I saw a figure yesterday of 77 NHS staff having died to date.

[LHC]

I looked at this. It does seem that there was awareness before most of us knew, and the initial assessments were that the threats were low. It's perhaps still far to early to judge, but we were told about "the right actions at the right time" on several occasions. The right action was taken - eventually - IMO - to impose social distancing - but is is possible that a slightly early decision would have reduced the current death rate considerably. It is fairly clear that other countries were slightly ahead in this, and the UK didn't seem to take note of that. It is hard to see how you can determine that advice was followed "meticulously". I can neither confirm nor deny that.

I agree that, with the benefit of hindsight, it appears at present that an earlier lockdown might have reduced the death toll somewhat. However, we are still only in the first phase of this illness, and I recall there were suggestions at the outset that a hard suppression strategy at the beginning might just make the second and third waves of infection more devastating.

The issue for all countries now is how and when some of the lockdown restrictions can be eased without infections running out of control again. This is particularly so for those countries like Greece that imposed tight lock downs and closed their borders almost immediately. Their route back to some form of normality could be much harder than for those countries that have already experienced relatively widespread transmission of the virus.

[MrGongGong]

I saw a figure yesterday of 77 NHS staff having died to date.

I'm not a lawyer but Corporate Manslaughter?

[oddoneout]

I looked at this. It does seem that there was awareness before most of us knew, and the initial assessments were that the threats were low. It's perhaps still far to early to judge, but we were told about "the right actions at the right time" on several occasions. The right action was taken - eventually - IMO - to impose social distancing - but is is possible that a slightly early decision would have reduced the current death rate considerably. It is fairly clear that other countries were slightly ahead in this, and the UK didn't seem to take note of that. It is hard to see how you can determine that advice was followed "meticulously". I can neither confirm nor deny that.

I have skim read through some of the published minutes and my impression is that discussion and decisions fit with what was known, assumed and understood at the time by that group. However IMO that doesn't invalidate the Sunday Times' approach since there are still the questions about the UK's lack of preparedness for a flu pandemic - in particular the lack of PPE - which as I see it means that the ability to respond effectively to the Covid 19 threat was already seriously compromised regardless of the quality, quantity and timing of scientific assessment and advice available. There is a quote which is currently being trotted out by ministers et al about the UK having been ranked as well prepared in some league table or other. I can only assume that the body concerned looked at the 'in theory' plans and not what was actually in place, and did not take into account the outcome of Operation Cygnus.The response continues to be hampered by this government's inherent inability to plan, coordinate and implement anything, especially if it means the uncharted territory of matters not part of their buddy scheme(aka Tory donors). The floods fiasco amply demonstrated that - big talk(some of which might have been true) about funding, practical support etc which failed to materialise. The soundbite and headlines more important than reality, and disregard for what foul-ups mean to the public trying to get on with their lives - or in the current case trying to just keep their lives.
I couldn't sleep last night as all my fury, disgust, impotence, resentment suddenly reached boil-over, and I'm now running on adrenaline and emotion. Part of me wishes to go and do something lingering and painful to the MP for this deep blue constituency, but will have to make do with a real letter - perhaps in red ink - when I can get my hands and brain under better control.

[oddoneout]

I'm not a lawyer but Corporate Manslaughter?

Well one does begin to wonder. Even once all available filters have been applied there must still remain a considerable 'excess' component to that number.

[oddoneout]

This belongs elsewhere but it's not entirely inappropriate here...
From the local paper Dad jokes weekend feature " The prime minister held a meeting with the cabinet today. He also spoke to the bookcase and argued with the chest of drawers"