Coronavirus

**Nick Armstrong** · 21-03-20, 19:21

Originally posted by cat View Post

1) The government has said people should avoid non-essential travel in the UK. Don't go. You think the people of Devon want you filling up their hospitals?

2) There shouldn't be any tourism because there should be no non-essential travel in the UK. Attracting tourists instead of closing is highly irresponsible.

I have to say I agree

**Nick Armstrong** · 21-03-20, 19:23

Originally posted by eighthobstruction View Post

Well [as I say incessantly].........I think some people are going to die of boredom....(those poor people without the R3 +R3 Forum habit....)[of course]....of course S_A my imagination is my life blood and with the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of fair play, so be it. I am ready for the fight,{Oh no that's someone else....}....round here we say"turned out nice again" even if a leg is hanging off...Ah yes but my imagination is because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not kno, but my imagination knows them....simples....

Post of the month

**eighthobstruction** · 21-03-20, 20:36

Originally posted by Caliban View Post

I have to say I agree

....I have a fully fitted out fantasy trawler moored at Brixham ....foods there , might have to add a bit of food, chandlery, deisel....going to sail away for a year and a day to the land where oysters can be dived for....but i have to travel down from Ultima Thule to get to the boat....should I do it....go....??

....going to write poor disjointed si-fi novels and invent the scruffimeter....

**Bryn** · 21-03-20, 20:45

Originally posted by johnb View Post

It is no wonder neither the government nor the experts are giving the likely number of people currently infected (as distinct from those confirmed by testing) and what the death toll is likely to be in the next 14 days. I've done some maths using publicly available data and the results are ... scary - to the extent that I am reluctant to say more.

Of course I might well be totally wrong.

Let's hope your calculation results are a case of GIGO. However, the way far too many are behaving, I fear not.

**eighthobstruction** · 21-03-20, 21:02

....793 died in Italy today.... goodness....smart Alec Comment Defered....

**Anastasius** · 21-03-20, 21:33

Originally posted by eighthobstruction View Post

....I have a fully fitted out fantasy trawler moored at Brixham ....foods there , might have to add a bit of food, chandlery, deisel....going to sail away for a year and a day to the land where oysters can be dived for....but i have to travel down from Ultima Thule to get to the boat....should I do it....go....??

....going to write poor disjointed si-fi novels and invent the scruffimeter....

You forgot the dusky maiden !

**Serial_Apologist** · 21-03-20, 22:19

Originally posted by eighthobstruction View Post

....all is /and was well in the kingdom.... .... .... {me and S_A are protective of one another being meagre jazzers....}

Seconded - and thanksm again, eighth. This though is why I often use emojis manically when posting something pretend-insulting, just to demonstrate I don't really mean it. Dear me, so many people are so quick to take offense these days, don't you find? - all at the slenderest chance of misinterpretation! I think it's called "Did you just touch my beer?"

**Anastasius** · 21-03-20, 22:25

Originally posted by Serial_Apologist View Post

Seconded - and thanksm again, eighth. This though is why I often use emojis manically when posting something pretend-insulting, just to demonstrate I don't really mean it. Dear me, so many people are so quick to take offense these days, don't you find? - all at the slenderest chance of misinterpretation! I think it's called "Did you just touch my beer?"

Or 'Who are you looking at ?' To which, of course, the definitely wrong idea is to say 'Nothing'.

**cloughie** · 21-03-20, 22:25

Originally posted by Anastasius View Post

You forgot the dusky maiden !

No he wouldn’t do that!

**johnb** · 21-03-20, 22:30

Originally posted by eighthobstruction View Post

....793 died in Italy today.... goodness....smart Alec Comment Defered....

Indications are that we will be in a similar situation within the next two weeks.

**johnb** · 21-03-20, 23:04

Originally posted by Bryn View Post

Let's hope your calculation results are a case of GIGO. However, the way far too many are behaving, I fear not.

Well the Garbage In is:

- Current number of deaths

- Average mortality rate for all those infected.

- For those who tragically don't recover - the average number of days between infection and death.

- The daily increase in numbers infected. The confirmed cases are useless for this because (a) the numbers tested vary widely from day to day and (b) the methodology had changed. The only hard fact is the daily percentage increase in the number of deaths.

**eighthobstruction** · 21-03-20, 23:26

Originally posted by cloughie View Post

No he wouldn’t do that!

....we have remember it's Radio 3....House Rules...., things are hidden within the text like in a Colin Dexter Oxford....

**Bryn** · 21-03-20, 23:40

Originally posted by johnb View Post

Well the Garbage In is:

- Current number of deaths

- Average mortality rate for all those infected.

- For those who tragically don't recover - the average number of days between infection and death.

- The daily increase in numbers infected. The confirmed cases are useless for this because (a) the numbers tested vary widely from day to day and (b) the methodology had changed. The only hard fact is the daily percentage increase in the number of deaths.

Yes, but the social variables need to be taken into considerations and they will change from population to population and over time. Hopefully, more will learn from what has already happened in Italy and now France. I very much doubt sufficient data have been collected to put too much faith in the output. I fear the recycling will get mixed up with the landfill. The trajectories appear to vary condiderably between different populations.

**eighthobstruction** · 21-03-20, 23:46

Originally posted by johnb View Post

Well the Garbage In is:

- Current number of deaths

- Average mortality rate for all those infected.

- For those who tragically don't recover - the average number of days between infection and death.

- The daily increase in numbers infected. The confirmed cases are useless for this because (a) the numbers tested vary widely from day to day and (b) the methodology had changed. The only hard fact is the daily percentage increase in the number of deaths.

....someone was saying on Any Questions {I think I caught it right] that if the Chinese end total deaths model was 3200/their population size, then proportionately the GB death rate should be about 160 tops/population size....but of course we have passed that, and we are only at an early stage....all of a sudden there seems to be a love in with 'experts' again, who would have thought it....did anyone else hear these figures

....there is no way I can be a Casandra on this....I am optimistic...but i am not a mathematician

**Simon B** · 22-03-20, 00:13

Originally posted by johnb View Post

It is no wonder neither the government nor the experts are giving the likely number of people currently infected (as distinct from those confirmed by testing) and what the death toll is likely to be in the next 14 days. I've done some maths using publicly available data and the results are ... scary - to the extent that I am reluctant to say more.

It might just encourage someone to act on this:

Originally posted by Bryn View Post

All the more reason to isolate, isolate, isolate!

The WHO data on confirmed infections is here:

COVID-19 pandemic cases - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_data/WHO_situation_reports

The UK daily case and fatality figures can be found using an internet wayback machine, e.g.

Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK

https://web.archive.org/web/20200320201005/https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Find out the number of cases and risk level in the UK, what to do if you have symptoms, and what the government is doing about the virus.

The UK case figure is so far consistently multiplying by about 1.25^n, where n is days, i.e. 2x cases every 3-4 days i.e. 10x cases every 9-10 days.

The UK case fatality ratio (whatever relationship a "confirmed case" does or doesn't have with the infection rate in the broader population) is around 4-5% so far, albeit on limited data.

The case fatality ratio across all 81,000 Chinese cases to-date is... 4%.

Unless the UK trend changes, there will be a 20-fold increase in both cases and mortality every 14 days, just like Italy over the last 14 days.

14 days ago, Italy had 5,883 confirmed cases with 233 deaths. A 20-fold increase on 233 is 4,660. Today, Italy reached 4,825 deaths.
Today, the UK has 5,018 confirmed cases with 233 deaths.

Hopefully, the obvious inference from that is overly simplistic and therefore wrong.

Regardless: All the evidence points to nothing we do now having much effect on outcomes reached within 14 days - it's going to happen anyway. Isolation is about what happens after that.