Coronavirus

[cloughie]

I look forward to seeing how these measures will be enforced. Somehow I cannot see 8-10 million people agreeing to be effectively imprisoned in their own homes indefinitely. The sight of militant geriatrics desperate for fresh air and exercise being frogmarched back to their own homes will surely be one to behold!

[MrGongGong]

And the government is planning to protect the most vulnerable, whilst keeping the NHS functioning.

Which is about a likely as all the wonderful trade deals they have secured

Maybe (as discussed on R4 this lunchtime) we should concentrate on trade and collaboration with our near neighbours?
If only there was an organisation we could be part of to facilitate this and share expertise ?


They don't give a shit about the vulnerable or the NHS
they are spooked because you can't buy your way out of a pandemic

[burning dog]

The thrust of a graph like this can surely be interpreted well by almost everyone:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#/media/File:Illustration_of_SARS-COV-2_Case_Fatality_Rate_200228_01-1.png

That's not a small correlation with age. It's a massive one.

Yes. It but it also records that most infected people over 80 will survive. Not the impression given by presenters on BBC Radio and TV, Sky News, CNN et al.

[burning dog]

Many people with zero hours contracts do qualify for sick pay.

https://www.rocketlawyer.com/gb/en/quick-guides/how-to-calculate-statutory-sick-pay-for-zero-hours-workers

It 's the "gig economy" bogus self employed, bogus sub contractors who don't

[MrGongGong]

Many people with zero hours contracts do qualify for sick pay.

https://www.rocketlawyer.com/gb/en/q...-hours-workers

"Many"
or
"some" ?


(I don't know.... )

[burning dog]

It depends if you qualify for a national insurance contribution from your employer or agency IIRC. I was paid some years ago and you had to earn an average of about £110 per week for the previous few weeks

[MrGongGong]

It depends if you qualify for a national insurance contribution from your employer or agency IIRC. I was paid some years ago and you had to earn an average of about £110 per week for the previous few weeks

Ok

And those who are self-employed? (including those who are technically "self-employed" but not really so)

If there really was a concerted effort to help people and stop the quick spread thus easing the pressure on the NHS etc then the government would actually do something to help those who need help the most... but i'd be surprised if they did anything reasonable and will just give more money to the banks who can then say "thanks for that" and pass none of it on.

If this really is a crisis that affects us all then private hospitals shouldn't be allowed to "hoard" resources in the form of ICU beds or equipment...

[burning dog]

Ok

And those who are self-employed? (including those who are technically "self-employed" but not really so)

Bogus "self employed" and bogus "sub contractors" or franchisees are entitled to nothing, but I think one or two companies have been shamed into providing something.

[Simon B]

Yes. It records that most infected people over 80 will survive. Not the impression given by presenters on BBC Radio and TV, Sky News, CNN et al.

This is absolutely true. It is almost exactly like playing one round of Russian Roulette with a six shooter for those 80+ though. Who'd volunteer to give that a go?

[burning dog]

This is absolutely true. It is almost exactly like playing one round of Russian Roulette with a six shooter for those 80+ though. Who'd volunteer to give that a go?

No-one would , but it may give hope to someone 80 plus if they do get infected. A few older relatives in my family seem to think if they contract Corona virus it's "curtains"

[MrGongGong]

No-one would , but it may give hope to someone 80 plus if they do get infected. A few older relatives in my family seem to think if they contract Corona virus it's "curtains"

https://lh5.ggpht.com/_9F9_RUESS2E/SwarYQ3VYvI/AAAAAAAABoQ/0rvABAugEL0/s800/photooftheday0002-Swine-Flu2.jpg

[Anastasius]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...NmoMkPEabPeWFU

Sorry but anything the Guardian publishes I treat with a very very large pinch of salt. They have (like many other newspapers) zero interest in publishing the facts but would rather colour them from their own rather narrow and simplistic perspective. Talking of running out of loo rolls.....how absorbent is the Guardian ?

[Joseph K]

Sorry but anything the Guardian publishes I treat with a very very large pinch of salt. They have (like many other newspapers) zero interest in publishing the facts but would rather colour them from their own rather narrow and simplistic perspective. Talking of running out of loo rolls.....how absorbent is the Guardian ?

You consider your epidemiological opinion superior to the author - a Harvard professor - of this article?

[Anastasius]

On an individual basis, yes. On a population sample, no. Customising advice (or even enforced rules in the worst case) for each individual's circumstances is neither scientifically possible nor a sensible use of resources at this time.

Pragmatism demands that their duty is try to make the best of a bad job by targeting the predictor that gives the greatest benefit first. All available evidence currently has age as the massively strong predictor of outcome. It has way more predictive power than any other measure.



Ballpark figures point to the former. The data to properly estimate it is in the public domain.

It is still just a conjecture, but one hypothesis for which evidence is at least accumulating is that Cytokine Storm is associated with many bad outcomes. This (Cytokine Storm in response to COV-19) in turn appears well correlated with age, regardless of underlying health. Underlying health is then correlated with chances of withstanding this phenomenon. The inverse (unlikelihood of Cytokine Storm in response to COV-19 regardless of other factors except youth) is a possible explanation of the near-zero risk of bad outcomes in the youngest.

NB I'm categorically neither endorsing nor opposing what the govt is doing.

At last...someone who knows what they are talking about. Many many thanks for the reply.

[MrGongGong]

Sorry but anything the Guardian publishes I treat with a very very large pinch of salt. They have (like many other newspapers) zero interest in publishing the facts but would rather colour them from their own rather narrow and simplistic perspective. Talking of running out of loo rolls.....how absorbent is the Guardian ?

You are, of course, absolutely right
what on earth does this dullard know about anything ?

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/william-hanage/